However, while it is a possibility that he could win, keep in mind that Schmidt remains the favorite. The poll showed Hackett within the MoE--it didn't show him ahead. Republicans will also be dumping huge sums of cash into the district this weekend, in an ad buy, direct mailing and robo-call frenzy that will easily surpass Hackett's final efforts, despite the $350K+ we have raised for him (here and here). Also, in the special election last month, even though he was the top Democratic finisher, Hackett only finished fourth overall (though he did defeat Pat DeWine-haha). In other words, Schmidt is probably still a touch ahead in the polls, has a lot more money being spent on her behalf, and in a low turnout election will have the support of many die-hard Republican voters. While the mo' is clearly in Hackett's favor and he has made up a lot of ground, Schmidt remains the favorite. The real change is that she is no longer a lock.
However, even if Hackett loses, keep in mind that this campaign was already a success. It is going to be a lot closer than anyone thought it was going to be, and it has made real inroads into a deep red corner of Ohio. In the extended entry, I explain why. We should be proud of what we have accomplished here, and keep in mind that there are some people in our own party who believe that we have been wasting our time. Most importantly, we should hold Paul Hackett, a regular guy with a lot of guts who stands for what you and I stand for, in very high regard. Quite frankly, the whole things reminds me of the Dean campaign, and of working with Ginny Schrader last year, and not just because of Blogosphere Day. They have been my own inspiration to run for office. We need more people like them.
The ad buy was estimated at $265,000 in the Cincinnati media market, along with another $250,000 on Huntington, W.Va., stations that cover the eastern end of the seven-county district.
House Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois; Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Texas; the National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, Tom Reynolds of New York; and Rep. John Boehner of West Chester Township each gave Schmidt $10,000 through their political action committees. Rep. Steve Chabot of Westwood gave $1,000.
More than a dozen other congressional lawmakers gave Schmidt more than $33,000, but it's the money from DeLay that has drawn attention.
$300K of netroots money has drained twice that amount from Republican coffers, which will have an immediate impact on the cash on hand advantage currently enjoyed by Republicans in the House. That is $600K that Republicans won't be able to spend on candidates in close elections October of 2006, meaning that Paul Hackett has already given a boost to Democrats who will be in close races fifteen months from now.
Activists
As Tim has reported, the size and excitement surrounding the local Democratic canvass for Hackett is palpable. I t also puts the Republican canvass to shame. Such an activity has gone a long way toward identifying new Democratic activists in the district. Less attention to this race would have meant a smaller canvass, and a weaker Democratic Party in the area. If there is one thing Democrats need, it is warm bodies, and this campaign is helping to accomplish that goal.
Message
Whatever else happens, Paul Hackett has turned this super-red district of Ohio a little more purple. Just look at how his campaign has helped dent the caricatures of Democrats that the Republican Noise Machine has worked years to fix in the minds of voters. First, from the Cincinnati Post's endorsement of Hackett:
If elected, he notes, he would be the only member of Congress with direct military experience in Iraq - which, he says, is a fight we should end as soon as possible. He wants to finish the job and get out, and he wants the United States to stop holding hands with Pakistan and to get serious about tracking down those responsible for the 9-11 attacks.
We like Hackett's candor. We're impressed with the freshness of his ideas. We believe his experience shows him to be someone who is action-oriented.
We endorse Hackett for the 2nd District seat.
Even if he loses, which remains the most likely outcome, the Hackett campaign has turned a corner of Ohio a little more purple, which in turn turns the state and the nation a little more blue. We have drained money from Republicans nationally, spread our message to one of the reddest parts of the country, and identified numerous activists to help keep up the fight in the future. That is a huge success. That is called building a party from the ground up. That is a fifty-state strategy. That is ending the scourge of the uncontested. Stuart Rothenberg may think I am clueless for supporting and encouraging stuff like this, and if he were the one talking to the grassroots about political strategy instead of bloggers, maybe the Paul Hackett phenomenon would never have happened. That, I think, would be a tragedy. If someone can't see the importance and the already achieved success of the Paul Hackett campaign, then they are the truly clueless.
Of course, if Hackett actually wins, then the flood-gates are open. Every Ohio Republican would be vulnerable. The long-awaited reversal of 1994 might finally be upon us.
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