MyDD :: OH-2: The Commercial, The Poll, "Swift Boating" & the Pivot

OH-2: The Commercial, The Poll, "Swift Boating" & the Pivot

by Tim Tagaris, Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 02:10:45 PM EST

From the diaries--Chris

Update (Chris): Schmidt's campaign manager is out. The campaign has been taken over by Republicans from D.C. who plan to go huge negative. Rumors are now circulating the the Republican ad buy will be close to one million dollars. Also, check out the great video on the race in Al Rodgers' diary.

Update 2: Apparently, the campaign manager is staying. Also, apparently a conservative group will be running ads against Schmidt this weekend, telling conservatives to stay home. That's fine with me.

WHAT. A. WEEK.

I have good news and bad news. The bad news is that I am going home today to Chicago for the weekend (a wedding I must attend on Sunday). I will be back on Monday to take everyone down the stretch.

The good news is, Bob Brigham will be flying into SW Ohio tonight to pick up where I leave off. Swing State Project will not miss a beat on this at all. And as you all know, Bob is the best around when it comes to getting a story out there--so I am sure an even wider audience will be reading about Paul Hackett by the time I return.

Also: Contributing is great, there is a mechanism in place so the money won't get here too late to make a difference.

But what they need now is volunteers on Saturday/Sunday/Monday/Tuesday (Election Day). So, if you can make it down, housing is available.

VOLUNTEER: VOLUNTEER@HACKETTFORCONGRESS.COM

The commercial:
Right now, someone is obtaining a copy of the newest Jean Schmidt commercial and the piece the NRCC is spending $285,000 dollars in ad time on. Both are on the air right now apparently--though I have seen neither. I expect the Schmidt piece to be positive, but the NRCC piece to be a hatchet job. I am sorry that I will be gone by the time the spot gets back here and won't be able to get it online for you to see. Cryptically, the title of the NRCC piece is "Happy." We'll see...

The Poll:
I have had it confirmed from another source that the polling data reported last night is accurate. One source said Schmidt is up 5 points, another said that Paul was "within ten." The Hotline reported this morning that polls show the margin tightening. FEC reports confirm an NRCC independent expenditure for a poll that most likely dropped this week--So all of this is coming together and I am fairly confident in its accuracy.

The Panic:
The GOP is freaking out--we have them on the run and there is no doubt about it. Jean Schmidt is calling her primary opponents asking them for their volunteer lists. An email went out this morning (still trying to get my hands on it) from a Republican organization that says, "Democrats smell blood in the water" and urge people to come to Ohio to phone-bank, block-walk, and basically save her campaign from collapsing.

Swift Boating Continues
The CBS news affiliate in Cincinnati aired a piece yesterday on the "Swift Boating" of Paul Hackett. It talks about Minameyer and how this thing is causing quite a stir.

Watch the news item

The Fundraising
What can I say? Seriously. As a collective and individually, some of these efforts have been absolutely unbelievable.

Passing the Torch
As I said above, Brigham is taking over the ship when he gets here tonight. I'll be back on Monday. As I have written about this race, I have simply jotted down what I know, no coordination what-so-ever. I think that allowed me to talk about things that otherwise would have been bottled up had I been a campaign staffer. I hope that it has given everyone a "window into the campaign.* I think we can expect to see the same from Bob when he gets here.

Thanks!

Tim

Tags: (all tags)

Permalink :: 16 Comments :: Post a Comment

Keep up the good work!!! (none / 0)

You guys have been doing a great job. I gave my 50.01 last night!

I think we can win this one!!!

by cscs on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 01:23:16 PM EST

A Cool Million? (none / 0)

It sounds pretty desperate for the Grand Old Swiftboat Pukes. Is the DSCC or DNC pitching in?

I promised to kick in $20 and bumped it to $30 when I saw Wes Clark was helping Hackett. I'll take a look at the old budget tonight and see if I can kick in some more.

by Gary Boatwright on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 03:05:22 PM EST

Even More Desperate (none / 0)

Hackett talking about his service must really be killing them. They failed at swiftboating him, now they're trying to get his to pull the ad altogether.

http://deanofcincinnati.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=598&mo de=flat&order=0&thold=-1

They're losing it. And I'm loving it :)

by dantheman on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 03:21:46 PM EST

I don't think it is (none / 0)

the campaign manager so much as it is the candidate.

Go Paul Hackett!

I've got bills to pay but I'll roll up the pennies and quarters if I have to and do my part to counter the DeLay's Dirty D.C. Million.

The 10,000 Things

by Andrew C White on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 03:50:01 PM EST

Manager is not out (none / 0)

Read the OH-02 blog update. He's got a copy of the actual reply email from Schmidt's campaign manager.

The national republicans are buying only 300K, far less than the 750K number I saw on the blogosphere.

Still, we need to get Paul over the 300K line so he can push back and reply to all the lies the GOP is dishing out.

Did that grassroots ad ever get aired? Maybe a token ad buy to get press attention would be the ticket.

by DaveB on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 04:02:34 PM EST

Re: Manager is not out (none / 0)

See my blog (ericminamyer@myblogsite.com) in relation to the accusation of swiftboating. The questions I asked were answered for the most part, I posted the replies and corrected my incorrect opinion about Hackett's combat service.

My insignificant blog was first misrepresented by OH2 then by MyDD and it took off from there.

Also I have no role in the Schmidt campaign and no one else is responsible for my blog but me. I had no intention of doing anything other than ask questions related to what I saw as a misleading tv ad. I stand corrected and posted according.

This all took place in a weeks time. If not for the false connection of my questions to Schmidt's campaign my insignificant blog would have meant nothing.

Today I asked MyDD to correct the allegation that Schmidt is connected in any way to my blog, but so far she has not done so. The false report of Schmidt swiftboating allegedly has led to huge gains in fund raising for Hackett. If it is not corrected it could because it is doing too much good as the untrue story it is.

If I was trying to criticze his service why would I post his answers. It was all about the tv ad not his service or about CAG duty. His ad does not, as I supected, exaggerate. For more on this do go to my blog. If you follow it all and the final entry, I think you can see what really happened, mere allegations by OH2 and others of motives aside.

It is interesting that MyDD was willing to post the above OH-2's post which was based upon Joe Braun's failure to answer an email. I had made the same incorrect assumption regarding Hackett. Guess I am not the only one who makes that mistake. i wonder how many others picked up the incorrect post and will repeat it?

by Eric Minamyer on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 04:26:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Manager is not out (3.00 / 0)

Wasn't there a less public way to ask your questions? Seriously, if your goal was to find out answers to your questions, it hard to believe that this close to an election you wouldn't think, "wait, maybe I will have some impact."

by bruh21 on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 06:01:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Manager is not out (3.00 / 0)

Hey, you raised the issue of Mr. Hacketts military service with an accusatory tone implying the lack thereof. Now you get to deal with the fallout.

After the Swift Boat attacks, we will no longer tolerate Republicans bashing the military service of our candidates for political gain.

by agpc on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 06:17:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Manager is not out (none / 0)

You know, when you ask someone to do something, actually asking them would be nice.

I don't read your blog. I have never read your blog. I have never received an email from you. How the hell can I respond to a request of your if you never actually bothered to request anything from me.

And what's up the the "she" anyway? I'm a dude.

by Chris Bowers on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 12:27:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What is the DCCC doing?@#$@#$ (none / 0)

Get out there and give this man some money and volunteers!!!!!!!!

by Chavez100 on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 04:08:15 PM EST

Re: What is the DCCC doing?@#$@#$ (none / 0)

Maybe their polling shows that it isn't as close as 5%. But even if it is 10, I think it is worth pursuing because you can close that gap at the rate Schimdt is tanking and Hackett is rising.

Give Rahm a call.

by DaveB on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 04:14:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

PHONE BANK FOR PAUL HACKETT AT HOME! (3.00 / 1)

The Ohio Democratic Party and the Hackett campaign will email you a calling script and a phone bank of 1000 district Democrats. Call (513) 421-0495 for more information...This should be posted on the front page. We can win this but only with 100% grassroots support -- phone banking is the BEST way you can help from home!

by MinnyBean on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 04:28:28 PM EST

PHONE BANK FOR PAUL HACKETT AT HOME! (none / 0)

The Ohio Democratic Party and the Hackett campaign will email you a calling script and a phone bank of 1000 district Democrats. Call (513) 421-0495 for more information...This should be posted on the front page. We can win this but only with 100% grassroots support -- phone banking is the BEST way you can help from home from ANYWHERE around the world.

by MinnyBean on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 04:29:32 PM EST

CHRIS, please correct this! (3.00 / 1)

braun today said he was still the campaign manager.

this is relevant because... well, see this.

Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!

by annatopia on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 04:36:55 PM EST

This race is starting to sound somewhat like . . . (none / 0)

The PA 17th when Tim Holdin knocked off George Gekas in a so called safe Republican district, with the RNC trying to bail out Gekas, like they now are Schmidt down the stretch of the campaign.

Councilman Bill Painter

by Painter2004 on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 05:02:44 PM EST

Just a reminder (none / 0)

that despite the positive press from the left side of the blogosphere, we need to remember that Hackett is STILL the underdog here. No matter how desperate Schmidt or the NRCC seem, we cannot afford for a second to act like we've got this under control. Just the fact that we've made this a race is a miracle in-and-of itself, but we still need all the volunteers and contributions we can muster.

Think of how much more satisfying it would be to say, "Wow, I can't believe we pulled it off" than it would be to say, "Wow, I can't believe we made that a close one."

by krugg234 on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 05:50:27 PM EST

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