The reason Forrester is losing is simple: credibility.  By way of background, polls show that property taxes are the biggest concern for voters in New Jersey, and Doug Forrester is proposing a massive property tax scheme, promising a 30% cut over 3 years.  From the response, it seems as if he might as well have proposed giving everyone in New Jersey a pony and promising to pay for it with magic pixie dust.  It's not a serious plan, which is why voters aren't warming to it.  In fact, Forrester's been caught changing his web site and the numbers behind his plan, removing a web calculator that's supposed to tell voters how much they can expect to save on their property taxes with Doug's plan.  Fittingly, the calculator didn't work.  He's also been caught manipulating the media, cutting up newspaper articles and trying to pass off his edited copy as the real thing on his web site.  It would be sad if it weren't so patently dishonest.

Second, George Bush is not popular in New Jersey (only 38% of voters rate Bush's performance as excellent or good here), and Forrester through his recent fundraisers (with Karl Rove in June and Dick Cheney last Friday) has linked himself tightly to this administration.  (Forrester even takes credit for the axing of Dan Rather). Forrester's response is to try to link Corzine to recent New Jersey political scandals.  This is not working, because New Jersey voters, while angry at corruption and high property taxes, see the problem as a bipartisan one.  Jim McGreevey, the Democratic Governor who resigned last year in a corruption scandal, isn't well-liked, but his numbers are no worse than  those of Republican Christie Todd Whitman, the Governor from 1994-2001.  People are not willing to listen to partisan tirades about corruption.  They want to see honest candidates.  Forrester is trying to run Bush's campaign of tarring and feathering Corzine, and it's just not working because no one takes anyone seriously who won't acknowledge that corruption is in both parties.  Doug Forrester's shrill tone is in complete contrast to Corzine, who is a cool and competent leader.

The campaign is also finding that the Corzine Connection, which is the grassroots outreach element of the campaign designed to bring new voters and activists into the process, is working.  What happened in 2004 on the Democratic side - the public coming in to embrace leadership - isn't stopping just because of our disappointment in the Presidential race.  

There are two things to note about this race.  One, the politics of Bush aren't working anymore.  New Jerseyans want tax relief, but they are rejecting unrealistic plans in favor of genuine credibility.  They do not like how Bush is playing politics with national security; they just want the government to work on protecting the homeland.  More to the point, voters want a different type of politics with progressive and open leaders that they can trust.  Two, it's a hot summer, and neither campaign is currently on the air with paid media.  This means that the race is not over by a longshot.  So far, this race has been mostly battled in the newspapers and on the ground; but soon enough, the dynamics of the race will change.  When it does, I'll come back for an update.