OH-02: Schmidt Strategy Failing

One month ago today, the Cincinnati Enquirer ran a story on the special election entitled GOP counting on ads, Dems on shoe leather. The article noted that Jean Schmidt was spending a lot of time outside of the district raising huge sums of cash and was relying on television ads for her campaign. By contrast, the story portrayed Hackett as focusing on local events and canvassing. Well, it is indeed true that Hackett is massively out-canvassing Schmidt, but now Schmidt's financial advantage has been entirely wiped out.

Today, Jean Schmidt gave her own campaign $20K. Why? Because, as of last week, her campaign was over $56K in debt. This makes Tim Tagaris's earlier estimation of Hackett's Cash on Hand advantage a severe underestimation. Hackett almost certainly has around $200K more to spend than Schmidt in the final days. Since Schmidt can't go down the PAC well again after blowing their money in less than a month, and since her entire strategy was seemingly based on massively outspending Hackett on TV ads, as we enter the final week of the campaign, the momentum and resource advantage are now decisively in Hackett's favor.

The free media battle is also shifting in Hackett's favor. While over the past month Google News counts ninety-one local stories about Schmidt and only 63 about Hackett, over the past week Hackett has closed that gap to just two: 27 for Hackett, and 29 for Schmidt.

A lot of things are clearly going Hackett's way in this race. If you can't make it into the district to help canvass, his Act Blue page is on the verge of passing 3000 contributers (right now it stands at 2,982) and $150K (right now it stands at 148.3K). The netroots shave done an excellent job helping Paul out in this campaign. Visit his website for info on how you can help.



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Why can't we have more (none / 0)

Dems like this?
Besides telling us how to live, think, marry, pray, vote, invest, educate our children and, die, the GOP has done a fine job of getting gov't out of our lives.
by Parker on Mon Jul 25, 2005 at 04:28:15 PM EST

you could (2.00 / 2)

If Democrats reached out to returning Iraqi Freedom veterans to get them to run for office. Is the  Democratic party doing this?
by Christopher Hitchens on Mon Jul 25, 2005 at 08:33:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

ladies and gentlemen (none / 0)

The Ohio Democratic party is building its bench...
by bobestes on Mon Jul 25, 2005 at 05:17:01 PM EST

Chris (or anyone), can you help me out here (none / 0)

What is the partisan index of the OH-02, and what is a reasonable expectation for Hackett.
Tennesseans for Feingold
by ben114 on Mon Jul 25, 2005 at 06:27:27 PM EST

Re: Chris (or anyone), can you help me out here (none / 0)

in 2004, 2002 and 2000, the dem nominee for this district got 24%, 26%, and 28% of the vote. granted, the nominee was always the same guy -- who lost the primary this year to hackett.
by fedupdem on Mon Jul 25, 2005 at 11:50:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Chris (or anyone), can you help me out here (none / 0)

oops... i meant in 2000, the dem got 24%, in 2002, 26% and in 2004, 28%.
by fedupdem on Mon Jul 25, 2005 at 11:51:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's going to look like Mangiardo (none / 0)

This is going to be the Jim Bunning race all over again (narrow, but GOP loser wins on backs of plain ignorant pricks who vote).

However, the one hope is that the absence of George W. Bush helps keep the crazy fuckers home.

The losers -- the Asshole Vote -- comes out in force anywhere George goes.

So far, with the exception of a handful of visits by Cheney, GOPers aren't getting a lot of love from the Bushies in these non-Presidential races.

If there is one saving grace in the recent GOP's approach, it has to be the utter unwillingness of successful GOPers to risk their image for weaker candidates.

by jcjcjc on Tue Jul 26, 2005 at 12:49:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Chris (or anyone), can you help me out here (none / 0)

Its not good. Its about +30 RNC, about the same as Nebraska.
by Chris Bowers on Tue Jul 26, 2005 at 01:50:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Chris (or anyone), can you help me out here (none / 0)

Is that using Presidential totals or House totals. I ask because even in pretty red districts incumbent Dems can win by 20 points, so House vote totals sometimes isn't the best indicator of partisanship in the district
Tennesseans for Feingold
by ben114 on Tue Jul 26, 2005 at 03:14:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Polls? (none / 0)

Are there any polls out that show how Hackett is doing?
Tennesseans for Russ Feingold
by schwompa on Mon Jul 25, 2005 at 07:13:27 PM EST

Re: Polls? (none / 0)

I'm not quite sure where I read this, but Tim had mentioned that there are no polls because there is no reliable way to predict who will vote given turnout will likely be around 10%.
www.RussForPresident.com
by peacenik23 on Mon Jul 25, 2005 at 07:51:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polls? (none / 0)

i'm pretty sure it was posted somewhere on the swing state project, but i couldnt find it when i looked for it just now. sorry
www.RussForPresident.com
by peacenik23 on Mon Jul 25, 2005 at 07:53:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Whither the NRCC? (none / 0)

Do we have any sense of how much the NRCC is putting into this race?  Because it's all well and good to have the resources' edge between the candidates, but if the NRCC starts a big independent spending campaign... in a naturally GOP district....
by Hauser on Mon Jul 25, 2005 at 09:39:01 PM EST

Jean Schmidt (none / 0)

Jean Schmidt has problems following traffic laws.  I've compared her biographical http://www.vote-smart.org/bio.php?can_id=MOH46356
info (date of birth) with traffic tickets at Clermont County Ohio.
Now compare that information with what I found at the clerk of courts of Clermont County.  http://www.clermontclerk.org/pa/munipa.urd/PAMW6500
After entering last name SCHMIDT  first name J, I found some interesting results.  She has four traffic tickets (see results for Jeanette H. Schmidt).  Doesn't this woman have any regard for the safety of our children?  
by Marie Smith on Tue Jul 26, 2005 at 12:21:39 AM EST

Re: Jean Schmidt (none / 0)

Let's see.... two failure to yields causing accidents?  Looks like someone was cutting and running a bit too quickly.


by mhender74 on Fri Mar 24, 2006 at 10:44:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

DF G (none / 0)

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by llalx on Sun Aug 28, 2005 at 10:41:56 PM EST


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