Senate Recruitment Update

The DSCC is doing a great job out fundraising the NRSC, but money is only one part of the Senate picture in 2006. Here is a quick run down of the latest candidate recruitment news in five races that are not currently top-tier, but could become so:

Obviously, making gains in the Senate in 2006 are heavily based upon Democrats putting together top recruits in 2005. McCaskill, Pederson and Brown would be a great trio and put a lot of pressure on incumbent Republicans. Of course, even if we get the best candidates and our financial situation continues to look strong, we are still going to need a convincing message to deliver to the electorate during the campaign.



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A comment on Missouri (none / 0)

McCaskill is going to need some pretty good turnout if she's going to beat Jim Talent. The reason being that, when you have a presidential-level turnout operation going on, St. Louis is going to put a lot of votes in the Democrat column. In a midterm, it's a lot more difficult to get the same kind of turnout. The race looks like a toss-up right now, and if Democrats in Missouri can get the 2006 Senate race to be a referendum on Gov. Matt Blunt, whose approval rating is miserable, then McCaskill will win.
by Tim Saler on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 02:17:27 PM EST

Talent = Blunt (none / 0)

That's the key. With McCaskill, Demcorats would have the candidate to defeat Blunt in 2006, but he won't be running then. Talent has to become Blunt in order for Talent to go down.
by Chris Bowers on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 03:02:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A comment on Missouri (none / 0)

One upside of running on a mid-term year, I feel, is that voters are more likely to cross party lines. The Republican leaders in Missouri generally have weak approval ratings, and if McCaskil can jump on the "Republicans are out of touch with our concerns" message, and portray herself as a mainstream mod, she has a real chance at winning this thing. IMO, if  she runs this instantly becomes a very competitive race; if she doesnt run, Talent is going to win this going away.
by AC4508 on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 03:40:47 PM EST
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Nevada (none / 0)


seems to be getting pretty darn tired of its Republicans- Ohio levels of it.  Jim Ensign is not going to get challenged this early but his approval numbers have to be down there with Bush's and the clique of Republicans running the state government- both of those were in the low forties, last I checked.
by killjoy on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 03:01:28 PM EST

Re: Nevada (none / 0)

I agree Nevada could become top tier as well, just one problem.

Who's the Democratic candidate?

As far as I know there is currently none.

by Trowaman on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 03:18:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nevada (none / 0)

Precisely.
by Tim Saler on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 04:26:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nevada (none / 0)


Two of the major Democrats in the state are running against each other for the Governor slot.  One of them could probably run for Senate with only minor retooling.

Shelly Berkley probably doesn't have a good shot at Ensign, but who knows.  

by killjoy on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 05:47:34 PM EST
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Minnesota (none / 0)

We have some great candidates here in Minnesota for the Democratic seat being left by Sen. Dayton.  I have a post on my blog detailing the race and the DFL candidates

Trillin
http://www.mnleftyliberal.blogspot.com

by trillin on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 03:09:38 PM EST

Ben Nelson.. (none / 0)

Is going to win by a landslide in Nebraska.
by Christopher Hitchens on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 04:10:24 PM EST

it's gonna be weird (none / 0)

considering the Republican candidate for Governor (whoever the heck that will be) will likely win a landslide as well.

honestly, I'd consider anything better than his 51-49 showing in 2000 a landslide.

by johnny longtorso on Thu Jul 21, 2005 at 12:18:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Conservatives in Arizona are irate with Kyl... (none / 0)

...because of his pro- big business approach to illegal immigration. If Pederson achieves the proper tone, which is that illegal immigration is a function of rapacious corporations and that Kyl is enabling it, the Democrat can peel off some of the anti-immigration zealots from the GOP coalition without alienating Hispanics. A well-run campaign by Pederson and he will defeat Kyl with ease, war chest or no war chest.
by georgewturd on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 04:11:42 PM EST

Re: Conservatives in Arizona are irate with Kyl... (none / 0)

And the Republicans are running a rather libertarian character, John Greene, for Governor against Napolitano. She could bring a bit of a windfall to a Democratic Senate candidate, presuming that Greene gets wrecked (which I would predict at this point, but could change).
by Tim Saler on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 04:27:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Conservatives in Arizona are irate with Kyl... (none / 0)

That might change. Kyl just coauthored a bill with Cornyn (R, TX) that would seek to deport every single illegal immigrant over the next few years.
by Bothwell on Thu Jul 21, 2005 at 04:00:51 PM EST
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Training meetings (none / 0)

Now is the time to give the huge numbers of activist who fought for the Democrats last year something a chance to get involved again.

With the  Supreme Court fight the kickoff (and strong efforts in the New Jersey and Virginia governors' races, we can begin to nationalize the election by pressing home the message that niether the Court nor the Congress exist to act as rubber stamps for a secret, insider adminstration that encourages corruption and endangers our security.  Remember, the Republicans came from much further behind in 1994 to win a majority.

On the positive side, we need to frame a Democratic majority as one that will be reponsible, open and accountable.  Democratic policies will be made for consumers instead of oil companies; for patients instead of the pharmaceutical industry; and for real security instead of political gain.

Of course this will take work.

Experienced e-activists, campaign volunteers and fundraisers need to start attending or creating  meetings where they can teach new activists and each other skills necessary to win. Above all, we must always give activists something  rewarding and measurable to do including:

  1. Fundraising in as many creative ways as possible.

  2. Informing the committed and persuadables of developments as quickly as possible through as many media as possible.

  3. Registering new voters.

  4. Recruiting/training new volunteers to help with  items 1-3.

Our goal should be to get a key group of local volunteers in every congressional district. When broken down into regular, measurable tasks over the the year and a half before the election, this becomes doable.  

Time to activate.

by Mudshark on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 05:06:37 PM EST

Message (none / 0)

That should be easy.  Corrupt power-mad politicians in Washington want to run your life and steal your money.  Democrats want to give you your privacy, restore fiscal sanity, protect our ports, achieve victory and get out of Iraq.

It is very easy to run against the status quo, especially when things have been so badly bungled in so many areas.

We do need to tie together our programs for improvement, a platform for cautious but positive change.  Real health care reform, real national security, energy independence, a focus on deficit reduction, and cleanup the mess in Iraq.

The other guys are going to bring up border control and anti-immigrant issues as next year's gay marriage.  We need to be ready for that and not let them control the agenda.  They say immigration reform, we say deficit reduction.  They say English only, we say health care cost containment.  They say crack down on day laborers, we say stem cell research saves lives.

They say national security, we say don't leak the names of CIA operatives to carry out personal vendettas.  And don't lie to the American people about knowing who leaked. And don't lie about intelligence and WMDs in the first place.  Especially when Americans are having their lives disrupted and getting wounded and killed as a consequence.

Our Senate candidates should have plenty to run on and run against.  Conrad Burns, Mike DeWine, Rick Santorum, look out.  You are all part of that cancer that's eating away at our democracy.

by freedc on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 06:29:57 PM EST

Top notch article Chris (none / 0)

really good stuff!
by Paul Goodman on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 08:07:30 PM EST

Re: Washington Senate Race (none / 0)

As a Washington Democrat, I can tell you that McGavick is definitely running. He's put former Senator Slade Gorton, former GOP gubernatorial candidate/conservative talk radio host John Carlson, former Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn and Western Wireless Chairman and CEO John Stanton in charge of his exploratory committee. Most of the big names in the GOP are already backing him, including Dino Rossi.

And Democratic Party chair Paul Berendt is already blasting McGavick for being a corporate executive who made millions last year on the backs of the average worker whose rates are going up.

by Ken Camp on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 08:12:34 PM EST

Convincing message... (none / 0)

How about cleaning up Washington corruption and letting the light shine on government secrecy? I think people are really getting sick of hearing all the scandels concerning both. For the dems to retake power, the people have to be convinced they want to have change.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 08:50:28 PM EST

Urge Brown to run (none / 0)

If you want to help and urge Sherrod Brown to run visit RunSherrodRun.com and sign the petition.
by RunSherrodRun on Thu Jul 21, 2005 at 12:30:03 AM EST

RE: Nebraska race (none / 0)

Chris what are you smoking? If you think the GOP challengers to Nelson are top notch and a strong field someone gave you wrong information.

Yeah, Stenberg was AG here for about 8 or 12 years but he won a weak primary and it is a red state so once you're in you stay. Stenberg is your basic idiot. True, he lost to Nelson by only 12K votes but people are tired of this clown. He lost 4 previous races before he was ever elected to anything. IN the GOP Thone administration he was shifted from one job to another because he was so incompetent.

As for Kramer, he is an unknown blimp, not telegenic and no imagination. He was a state GOP party chairman and still nobody knows him.

It will be Nelson vs. Stenberg and though it probably won't be a landslide, Ben is enough of a Republican in Democratic clothes to satisfy even most Republicans. Ben wins, period.

by NebraskaDem on Thu Jul 21, 2005 at 03:51:49 AM EST

Re: RE: Nebraska race (none / 0)

And for all that Ben Nelson is "enough of a Republican", I'd rather have him in Nebraska than trying to run a Barbara Boxer clone and hand that seat to the Republicans.  Textbook illustration of cutting your cloth according to your circumstances.
by InigoMontoya on Fri Jul 22, 2005 at 02:22:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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