MyDD :: Rasmussen US Senate Poll; VA, MD

Rasmussen US Senate Poll; VA, MD

by NJDEM1, Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 11:48:32 AM EST

Bumped with editing. I really doubt that Warner is running for the Senate, but it's good to see that he beats Allen in Virginia, and I think Cardin holds the upperhand in Maryland, Jerome

Virginia:
Warner 48
Allen 44

Maryland:
Cardin 45
Steele 40

Mfume 40
Steele 47

"With Cardin atop the Democratic ticket, the white vote is evenly divided but Democrats attract just 51% of the African-American vote. In that mach-up, Steele attracts 30% of the African-American vote."

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PLEASE (3.00 / 0)

lets not count Mfume out so quickly

Besides telling us how to live, think, marry, pray, vote, invest, educate our children and, die, the GOP has done a fine job of getting gov't out of our lives.

by Parker on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 11:51:55 AM EST

Re: PLEASE (none / 0)

This keeps him in. These numbers are good for him.

by aiko on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 01:00:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PLEASE (none / 0)

Steele is viewed favorably by 49% of Maryland voters and unfavorably by 27%. Cardin attracts favorable reviews from 35% while 21% take the opposite view. Significantly, a plurality (44%) have no opinion of Cardin at this time.

For Mfume, the numbers are 38% favorable and 35% unfavorable.

Mfume has suffered fallout, and lots of it. He's in a tight bind, and from what I've seen, his fundraising is lagging, whereas Cardin has the momentum. I'd like to see the primary numbers, but my guess is that Cardin is ahead.

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 01:04:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PLEASE (none / 0)

Cardin is ahead and Mfume took a serious hit. That's not news. What's news is that Mfume is holding his own against Steele and Cardin isn't breaking away as the forgone conclusion in a state that is registered 55% Dem to 29% Rep. Because of the large number of African American Dems in MD Steele is a real threat.

by aiko on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 01:16:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PLEASE (none / 0)

Cardin isn't breaking away because he's not known yet. Significantly, a plurality (44%) have no opinion of Cardin at this time.

I do consider it news that Mfume is behind Steele, and not good news either, this is a Dem state, as you point out.

I think there's a pretty good shot that Cardin could up that into double-digits with a higher id, and then it becomes very problematic for Mfume, especially because he's not raising significant amounts of money.

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 01:39:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PLEASE (1.00 / 1)

are you working for Cardin?

by aiko on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 01:41:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PLEASE (none / 0)

No. I avoid particular races I'm involved with here, unless I inform that I am involved.

by Jerome Armstrong on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 02:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Warner/Allen (none / 0)

is 48-44

by Ramo on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 11:52:49 AM EST

Mfume (none / 0)

In fairness, Mfume has not gotten out there yet.

Steele, on the other hand, has sat in a position that gets some notice, and can be harnassed for cheap publicity.

The NAACP has limited scope and reach these days. Also, since it is not considered "local news", coverage on TV locals isn't going to be as saturated as the Lt. Gov. might get.

But, it is worth considering that MD is a Dem stronghold, Mfume isn't a big winner with black voters, and Mfume has some scandal on his tail.

Given the current time frame, that's not a huge deal. But, I think Dems need to get any of his scandals out there, make sure the public can bear them, and dump him before 2006 if the public isn't receptive.

by jcjcjc on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 12:08:14 PM EST

Re: Mfume (none / 0)

Voters are shy to support Mfume becasue of the scandal (it was a case of nepotism not sexism) and the slow fundraising and wanting to go with a winner. I know politically active blacks who are heart sick over this. Even I was starting to lose hope. This poll is envigorating. You are right Mfume is still in it. Cardin should have showed better.

If a few well placed blacks and whites start showing support Mfume's numbers will skyrocket.

by aiko on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 01:05:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Isn't a big winner with black voters (none / 0)

I don't know if I buy that. Every poll I read, I check the racial breakdown, and inevitably, it shows a higher number of black voters for the Republican than the Republican actually receives. SurveyUSA polls last year showed Bush winning 21% of the black vote in Maryland - and in the end, he won 11%.

I doubt these polls are any different.

by Drew on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 02:43:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I like this diary (3.00 / 1)

if for no other reason than the honesty about race, and no one being offended by its realities in American politics for once.

by bruh21 on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 12:33:35 PM EST

Good numbers for Mfume, considering (none / 0)

As everyone knows I believe Steele will beat Cardin and only Mfume can beat Steele. (Jerome you need to spend some time in PG county.)

These numbers are good for Mfume--better than I expected.

These poll numbers show white people in MD supporting Steele over Mfume for now. Mfume can and will win back the Dem base in MD--white and black--and he is so persuasive in person that Dem party moderates (who don't want a black Senator) will come around when they get over that fact--or else they won't vote and it won't matter anyway.

Steele can't beat Mfume--there is no contest--not in MD. Mfume is a true blue homeboy, a known entity, with a powerful story, and great presence, executive skills, and charismatic. I don't think Cardin can best Steele. Steele has too nice a personna for mainstream blacks to vote against him. They want a highly placed black offical--they deserve that--and I think they are going to get it, one way or another.

Cardin is a great Dem and deserves to be Senator--10 years ago. Let's move on and put another progressive African American in the Senate!

by aiko on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 12:59:34 PM EST

Re: Good numbers for Mfume, considering (none / 0)

I think you have a case of wishful thinking. Mfume negatives are just too high and although I do not totaly understand the scandal I do not see him recovering. Cardin on the other hand has a low name rec and that is much easier to cure. If you wish to see a black in the Senate from Maryland I would try to get Mfume to stand down and find someone else who is not tarred by recent sandals, fair or not politics is a rough sport and Mfume is in a deep whole, I would love to see primary numbers though.

by THE MODERATE on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 04:23:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Good numbers for Mfume, considering (none / 0)

I agree with TM here. Although the piece emphasized that Steele pulls 30% of the AA vote against Cardin, the real story would be the horribly low % of the white vote Mfume would pull in the general. Mfume's past could make him his own Willie Horton. It isn't fair, but it's the way it is.

Nominating Mfume guarantees an African-American in the Senate from Maryland, but his name would be Steele.

by howie14 on Thu Jul 21, 2005 at 03:23:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

MD Should not be a race no matter who the nominee (3.00 / 1)

The people of Maryland know nothing about Steele's right wing views. He hasn't accomplished anything, and holds the do-nothing Lt. Governor's position. Once the ads are up and the framing begins, I expect Cardin to shoot up and even Mfume to move up. Steele will be a big headache if he gets into the Senate, painting himself as a moderate while spewing rightwing talking points and toeing the Dobson party line. The State Party must paint him as a potential threat and link him with Bush, Rove, Delay and the rest of the Right Wing Taliban.

by NJDEM1 on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 02:12:47 PM EST

Virginia (none / 0)

Could somebody PLEASE get Warner to run for Senate in VA? The poll numbers are interesting because every other poll I've seen has Allen winning. I guess this means if there is a Warner-Allen Presidential showdown in '08, that Warner would take Virginia??

by AC4508 on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 03:35:11 PM EST

Re: Virginia (none / 0)

As encouraging as those numbers are, why would Mark Warner risk taking his best shot at running for President, by running against George Allen for Senate?

The man was not made to be a legislator, the is a leader, an executive, and I cant wait until he is Inaugurated the 44th President of the United States on January 20, 2009.

by novademocrat on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 04:33:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

warner should run for senate (none / 0)

Let's be honest here. It's great if mark warner has a strong shot at the Senate. He should take it. He's proved that despite his fairly strange-looking face, densures, and pole thin body he can get elected state-wide.

But he doesn't have a shot at national politics, where you have to be telegenic. It hurt kerry so bad, he felt the pressure to get BoTox photos.

by janfrel on Wed Jul 20, 2005 at 07:00:34 PM EST

Maryland (none / 0)

It is notable that Cardin leads Steele 45-40 even though Steele's name recognition is surely higher.

by raginillinoian on Fri Jul 22, 2005 at 10:28:14 AM EST

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