For students of the blogosphere, it came as little surprise when the popularity of politically oriented blogs began to tumble in the wake of the presidential election this past November. But something funny has happened since then. While the traffic numbers of conservative blogs have remained at roughly the same levels following their post election slide, the left-wing blogosphere--and especially the Daily Kos--have almost fully rebounded. While Glenn Reynold's Instapundit, the most popular conservative blog, averages in the neighborhood of 150,000 page views a day, the Daily Kos now averages over 550,000; the sites were almost equally trafficked just last fall.
Theories abound for why the Daily Kos has left the right-wing blogosphere so far in the dust. One plausible explanation is that the Daily Kos has engendered a tremendous sense of community amongst it audience/contributors. While conservative blogs remain for the most part virtual op-ed columns (with the notable exception of Charles Johnson's Little Green Footballs), the Daily Kos has become a virtual family which allows readers to write their own blogs-within-the-blog (called diaries) and to engage in limitless amounts of commenting. Whatever the reason, there is nothing like the Daily Kos on the web--it is a phenomenon and the unquestioned leader of the blogs.
Anyway, the basic argument of the piece is that the rise of left-wing blogs has been bad for the Democratic Party because bloggers are "far-left," "shrill," "potty-mouthed," outside of the American "mainstream," and still not really very large. Further, while the Democratic Party has been trying to harness the power of blogs, they do not seem to understand blogs, and are instead being sucked into the same far-left, strident, potty-mouthed, anti-mainstream world. This is disastrous for them because, as a Democracy Corps poll shows, even while Republicans are tanking, Democrats are doing even worse.
My reaction to this not complex. I find Barnett's view of political organization to be overly linear, short-sighted, and either ignorant or purely dishonest. To address the last part first, it is either ignorant or dishonest because he either does not know that the vast majority of fundraising for the Democratic National Committee now comes form small online donors such as the type who read blogs, or he is somehow under the delusion that politicians of every persuasion have not, for decades, always tried to perform behind the scenes wooing of resource-providing activists who tend to be of the strident variety. Of course the Democratic Party is going to try and woo its new donor base--has any other party ever acted any differently? The number of people who read blogs may not be very high by the standard of the 2004 presidential election, but considering that around 80% of them donate to political campaigns and their average income is around 77K, a few hundred thousand of those people are extremely worth wooing. To do otherwise would be to not run an effective political organization, and to think otherwise is to simply be naïve, ignorant or dishonest.
To move onto the issue of size, well, yes, there are only about 650,000 readers of Dailykos on weekdays, and that is not very large by standards of presidential elections. However, there are a lot more readers of liberal blogs than just readers of Dailykos. For example, the Liberal blog Advertising network registers over 14,000,000 page views per week (or rather it will in a day or two, since we are about to add someone very, very big), which translates to a rough estimate of around 1.8 million unique visitors on weekdays. That still isn't very significant in terms of actual voters, but keep in mind that the number has increased more than ten-fold in the past two years. That number will only continue to increase over the next few years, building up to a huge crescendo during the 2008 elections.
Even if it doesn't get dramatically larger, so what? Votes and persuasion are the indirect, rather than the direct, purpose of emerging progressive media, such as blogs. Alternative media exists instead to activate a base group of voters and build resources from that base group that will eventually allow a party or an ideology to have far more resources when they seek to persuade the politically indifferent swing voters in the future. Barnett is right--most of America does not spend much time thinking about politics. So why exactly should the Democratic party be concerned with motivating these indifferents in the summer of 2005, the ultimate dead-zone of electoral politics? As I argued two weeks ago, wooing the base and converting swing voters is not an either or proposition:
The short-term success of the new progressive media marketplace that is the activist progressive blogosphere has been to generate far more resources from our choir than we have at any other time over the past three decades. What was, for at least two decades, a pathetically single-minded model of voter persuasion, just go straight after swing voters, has now been replaced by the start of a circular model where we can do the following:
Finally, let me deal with the short-sighted part of what Barnett writes. There was a time when right-wing talk radio was small, and it was dismissed even by many people in the Republican Party as an unimportant bunch of extremist whackos. Now, however, many of them are mainstream media figures with enormous audiences that have a powerful effect on the national political discourse, not just the conservative political discourse (Limbaugh, Hannity, etc.). As blogs and other forms of emerging progressive media continue to grow, they will eventually accomplish much of the same thing. Unless you can understand blogs as part of a long-term progressive strategy to help move the entire national political discourse and the national media discourse to the left, then I think you miss their real promise. Conservatives can deny that the ongoing rise of the lefty-netroots isn't important, just like Democrats denied the importance of rising right-wing media and grassroots in the seventies and eighties, but there once was a time not long ago when Democrats were the natural ruling party of this country. When that happens again, blogs such as Dailykos will have played a major role.
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