Here's a pretty strong indication that the GOP Senate nominee in Washington in 2006 will be Mike McGavick: he just gave up his cushy job as CEO of Safeco (the largest northwest-based insurance company). He explicitly stated that he wants to "explore" a run for the Senate.

Nobody has said that the path was formally cleared for McGavick, but I can't imagine leaving your $7.3 million/year job without some sort of promise along those lines. According to state chair Chris Vance, apparently the state GOP plans to endorse a candidate "within several weeks" to avoid a primary fight, so they're trying to get this done fast.

The reason you've never heard of McGavick is because he's never held public office before. He ran Slade Gorton's 1988 Senate campaign, though, and then served as Gorton's chief of staff for a while. Based on his bio, it seems a pretty safe bet he's from the corporate, not theocrat, wing of the party.

Bottom line for the Dems: this is good news. Ask just about any voter about McGavick and the response will be "who?" Polls have indicated that Dino Rossi was the only challenger capable of beating Cantwell, and he seems to be waiting for a rematch of the governor's race. And anyone else with better name recognition than McGavick - Jennifer Dunn, George Nethercutt, Rick White - is sitting this one out (they're all well-paid lobbyists now, so I doubt they'd want to take the pay cut involved with being a senator).

Cantwell's approval ratings have been trending upwards lately, probably associated with her taking the lead on issues like ANWR and alternative energy sources, so this race should probably be considered "likely Dem."