MyDD :: Santorum Extremely Vulnerable

Santorum Extremely Vulnerable

by Chris Bowers, Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 01:47:39 PM EST

Via Political Wire. In 2006, the most important Senate race in the nation is Pennsylvania. This is not only because it is considered a prime pickup opportunity in an important swing state, but also because Rick Santorum clearly has Presidential aspirations. In fact, with Frist seriously damaged, and with Brownback engaging in a strange bout of self-immolation with the conservative netroots, Santorum could be well positioned to seize the support of the theocons in the Republican primary. A victory in Pennsylvania in 2006 is also a national victory in 2008.

However, things are not looking so good for little Ricky:

Favorable / Unfavorable
Poll	    Date    Santorum	Casey
Keystone      6/5      42/26	 40/9	     
Pew	    5/27      49/28	 52/13
Q-poll	    4/18      36/25	 40/6

Trial Heats	    Santorum	Casey
Keystone      6/5	      37		 44
Keystone     3/20	      43		 44

Q-poll	    4/18       35		 49
Q-poll	    2/14       41		 46

(source: here and here)

Casey's favorables are remarkable. Despite a name ID hovering in the low sixties, very few Pennsylvanians have a negative or unfavorable opinion of him. By contrast, with a name ID in the mid-seventies, Santorum's favorables are still decent, but nowhere near as good as Casey's. Considering this, right now, I think it is fairly safe to conclude that Casey is leading poll after poll in Pennsylvania not because people dislike Santorum, but because people really like Casey.

The trends also look good. Casey has widened his lead on Santorum in both the Q-poll and the Keystone poll.

Further, an incumbent at 37% is extremely poor, but since he is probably facing Casey who has been previously elected to statewide office, the incumbent rule does not apply to this race to nearly the same degree. That is not to say that Casey cannot benefit at least somewhat from being the challenger, since his name ID is about 15 points lower than Santorum's. This means that Casey has more room to grow than Santorum.

Still, here's the real kicker in the Keystone poll. While Santorum is down seven points to Casey, facing a negative trendline, losing the favorable struggle and has less room to grow, he is still heavily over-performing in uber-Democratic Philadelphia:

Does Rick Santorum Deserve Re-election?
Region	   Yes	   No
Philly	   39	   39
NE	   37	   39
Pitt	   32	   55
SW	   44	   48
NW	   44	   45
Central    46	   35
SE	   38	   51

Santorum is actually doing better in this poll in Philadelphia than he is in Pittsburgh, the Philly suburbs, or Northeast PA. Philadelphia, however, is going to vote at least 75% against Santorum. Considering this and the other factors I listed, if we blow this one, we are not going to win pretty much anywhere else in the country in 2006.

Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

Permalink :: 18 Comments :: Post a Comment

Philly (none / 0)

Santorum could run against a Twinkie, and he will still get shellacked in Philly.

In fact, in 2000, Ron Klink made essentially zero appearances in Philly, wasn't well-known:

SANTORUM, RICK (REP) 121,433
KLINK, RON (DEM) 398,756

So yeah, expect Santorum to come out of Philly with a big deficit. A deficit that, given how polarizing he has become, should be much larger this time.

Progressive Philadelphia Politics: Young Philly Politics

by DanielUA on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 01:57:09 PM EST

Polarization is worse now (none / 0)

Look how hard-bitten Specter was, and he's a guy who depends on Democrats and independents voting for him.

And, Specter is much better thought of in PA than Santorum.

Obviously, Casey and his family are incredibly well-liked. A 6% disapproval in any poll?! Were only 6% of the people asked partisan Republicans!? You can usually get 15% just from the asshole demographic.

I don't see Santorum improving his marks much. PA has a lot of seniors, and all Casey has to do is pull his weight on Social Security.

The seniors, plus the unimpeachable Casey family name, should undercut Santorum's base in addition to winning a lot of independents and moderates.

by jcjcjc on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 04:35:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

did you see remarks from Barbara Hafer at Susie's? (none / 0)

http://susiemadrak.com/2005/06/07/14/13/hafer-endorses-casey/

Hafer Endorses Casey

A great deal has been made of the issues where Bob Casey and I don’t see eye to eye … but that doesn’t tell the whole story. I know that Bob is acutely aware of the pain that a lack of access to family planning can cause to women and families – it’s why he supports public funding of these services and contraceptive equity in health insurance coverage. Bob is also a strong advocate of health care and nutrition programs for women and children.

In fact, on issue after issue of concern to women and families, Bob Casey has stood with us. You may not know that Bob worked in state government to support women who are victims of domestic violence, stalking, and sexual assault. As a nurse and as the former Executive Director of the Center for Victims of Violent Crime in Allegheny County I’ve witnessed more than my share of pain and tragedy, that’s why Bob’s record in this area tells me a great deal about the kind of person he really is.

by lutton on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 02:07:47 PM EST

TOMC (none / 0)

We never have gotten it right nominating candidates for Senate in PA. Casey is the real deal. He is the guy who can beat Man/Dog Santorum.

by TOMC on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 02:42:54 PM EST

FYI he's been in the news here in South Florida. (none / 0)

Evidently he's sponsoring a bill to privitize many of the National Weather Services activities. All our local stations carried the story. Plus there's a questionable donation that coincided with the bill's introduction.

http://news.tbo.com/news/MGB13TXA99E.html

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 03:01:02 PM EST

paging Alex Castellanos (none / 0)

One look at those numbers and we know whats coming - Santorum's only chance is to make Casey unacceptable as an alternative. He's got to bring Casey's unfavorable's up sharply to match his own. And there's only one way to do that.

by desmoulins on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 03:02:41 PM EST

Re: paging Alex Castellanos (none / 0)

This is going to be an expensive race.

by ortcutt on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 04:30:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: paging Alex Castellanos (none / 0)

With Santorum so loud and proud about his support for the phase-out of Social Security, I don't think it will be very hard for Casey to produce some negative ads of his own. Oh, and maybe Rick shouldn't have the people of PA paying for his kids' education if he lives in Virginia.

by ortcutt on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 04:33:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Those aren't negative ads (none / 0)

A negative ad is one that defames on the basis of character.

It's not Casey's fault if Santorum's stand sucks.

by jcjcjc on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 04:37:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Santorum-Ex-Senator (none / 0)

I'm not sure that winning this race has any real correlation to winning PA in 2008, but Santorum is definitely a prime target. He's basically out of step with a state than leans blue. The conservative groups will porr money into the state, but I think we can win this as long as we get out the vote in the cities.

by alhill on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 03:42:35 PM EST

Bush here (Philly area) next week (none / 0)

to support/fundraise for little Ricky.

got this note regarding viz for visit:

SAY NO TO THE BUSH ENERGY PLAN

during the Bush/Santorum visit to Bryn Mawr

This month Congress is considering a multi-billion dollar energy package that weakens environmental laws and provides massive taxpayer subsidies to the oil, gas and mining industries, while doing next-to-nothing to address growing energy costs, over-dependence on foreign oil and the looming threats posed by global warming.

As the President visits Bryn Mawr to attend a fundraiser for Sen. Rick Santorum, let's send a loud and clear message that Pennsylvania says "NO TO THE BUSH ENERGY PLAN!"

WHAT: Protest Against the Bush Energy Plan

WHERE: Meet at the public parking lot at N Bryn Mawr Ave & Morris Ave

(Just south of the Bryn Mawr SEPTA Station)

Bryn Mawr, PA

WHEN: Tuesday, June 14; 10:30 am

A shuttle van will be making trips back and forth from the public parking lot south of the Bryn Mawr SEPTA Station to the protest site beginning at 10:30 am; people with their own cars can also caravan to the protest site from this central meeting spot.

The fundraiser that the President will be attending will be held at a private mansion approximately 1.5 miles from this central meeting spot. Because parking near the mansion is limited and roads may be blocked, everyone is encouraged to meet at the parking lot and travel to the protest site together.

Please bring signs and friends to the demonstration, and forward this announcement wherever appropriate!
For more information, please call Susie at 215-557-9242, or email Susie_Turpening@lcv.org . We may be getting together this weekend to make signs, please call Susie if you are interested in helping!

by lutton on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 03:46:56 PM EST

Those Philly numbers (none / 0)

Those are very hard numbers for me to believe. Even Specter, who's pretty popular here in the city, lost the city pretty big to Hoeffel. Santorum is much, much less popular especially compared to Casey who will easily carry the traditional Democratic Catholic vote. Add to that that the city Democratic party has done a very very good job with turnout and voters in the national elections since 2000 and there's no chance Santorum will get a higher percentage than Bush got here (20%). Turnout will also be huge to reelect Rendell governor.

The interesting numbers to me are in SE Pa and Pgh and SW. Santorum's SE Pa numbers are only slightly better than what Bush polled in 2004. This tells me Rick is going to lose the Philly burbs big.

IMHO, Santorum defrauding the Penn Hills school district to pay for his kids cyberschool has resonated with the average voter in western PA, esp in Pgh. In olden days, western Pennsylvanians were pretty parochial about voting for "their own", but now it seems that behavior has changed.

It's suprising to me that Casey, Jr only has 60+
name recognition given his dad's popularity and that he's been elected 3 times, by wide margins, to statewide office.

by phillydem on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 07:02:54 PM EST

Re: Those Philly numbers (none / 0)

"Santorum defrauding the Penn Hills school district to pay for his kids cyberschool has resonated with the average voter in western PA, esp in Pgh"

Interesting. Can you give a link or some details?

Thanks.

by freedc on Thu Jun 09, 2005 at 09:11:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Those Philly numbers (none / 0)

This was a few months ago now, and I don't have a link handy, but a google search should get you some info PDQ.

The short story is the kids lived with Sen & Mrs. S in Virginia, while the 'home town' in PA paid for them to attend some online charter school. The house where the Santorums supposedly lived was even rented out to some other family. This little factoid puts the Sen. in violation of PA's constitution which says you have to live in the commonwealth to run for US Senate.

by lutton on Thu Jun 09, 2005 at 01:06:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Cyberschool scam (none / 0)

Here's a link with all the info:

http://santorumcybergate.blogspot.com

by phillydem on Thu Jun 09, 2005 at 03:11:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Show me the money (none / 0)

I know desmoulin already said this, but I want to reiterate how nasty AND expensive this race is going to be.

Santorum's negatives are high, meaning voters are looking around to see if there's a better option out there. Santorum may only be able to recover by making the alternative look bad, and thereby getting voters to settle for the status quo. Result: the incumbent (sound familiar?).

But even though everyone hates santorum, and everyone agrees this is THE main '06 Senate race, I haven't seen any blog take up a fundraising effort for Casey. I know its a bit more fun to raise money for candidates that are not as well covered by the national press. But if that's the case, why not raise money for some great PA congressional candidates (Lois Murphy or Patrick Murphy, who are both running for Congress out of SE PA, for example)? Those two might be able to ride Casey (and Rendell's) coattails to a make PA true blue in '06.

In the words of Rod Tidwell, SHOW ME THE MONEY!

by LetsGoNats on Wed Jun 08, 2005 at 10:45:59 PM EST

Everything will change (none / 0)

I agree that we're looking at the pre-race numbers. Once this thing heats up and the Republican smear machine is in full operation, expect Casey to be demonized on air and print over and over and over.

The Republicans will see Santorum is a dud and realize their chances hang on turning Casey's name into mud. The sad thing is that it doesn't even matter who the opponent is. The Democratic nominee opposing Santorum could be Mother Theresa, but by summer 2006 she would be painted a leftist who coddles criminals and welfare queens.

Our job? Two things:

Figure out what angle they are going to play on Casey and counter it early and often. John Kerry did a decent job in neutralizing the Swift Boat Liars and partly deflated the flip-flop meme during the debate.
Turn the tables. Santorum is so bad it's hard to know where to begin, but we have to agree on a portrait and keep painting it over and over and over until every voter in Pennsylvania can see the man's horns. We can't leave that job (negative campaigning) up to Casey, that's a job for independent Democratic groups. Sorry to be so cynical, but it's just a matter of fighting fire iwth fire.

by freedc on Thu Jun 09, 2005 at 09:21:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

agreed---a Casey offensive now (none / 0)

That's the obvious conclusion from the numbers: a low unfavorable rating plus a 61% recognition says mostly that this Casey is not known well enough to be thought of unfavorably, and many simply remember better times when the elder Casey was governor. So there is much too much opportunity for the GOPers to define Casey.

Casey needs to go on the offensive now in defining himself, and he'll need help.

by dash on Thu Jun 09, 2005 at 09:27:32 PM EST

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