I think NARAL is sending the right message by endorsing a pro-choice Republican over an anti-abortion Democrat. Would anybody expect an anti-Union Democrat to get the union endorsement over a pro-Union Republican?

Would anybody expect Greenpeace to endorse a Democratic candidate who voted for Bush's anti-environmental Clean Skies and Healthy Forests bills over a pro-environment Republican?

In a state with a 23.2 DNC Partisan Index, why on earth is the Democratic party fielding an anti-abortion candidate? The Democratic party has peculiar expectations for single issue advocacy groups.

The results may be, oddly, not too much in terms of stopping Bush in 2007 to 2009 and an actual encouragement to the wingnuts.

Look at this scenario.  Senate losers: Santorum, Chaffee, DeWine and possibly the seat up in Maine (Snowe) or Tennesse (open seat, is Frist).  Yes, Snowe is possible, but Bush is not in Maine and neither are the hardline Republicans.

The House pickups could include Henry Hyde's old seat, the scandal packed Duke Cunningham and Tom De Lay, the Connecticut duo of Shays and Simmons, and possible pickups around PA, maybe another California, and (hope, hope) a seat in NJ (Garrett) and the open seat in Iowa.

We'd still need to hold on to all our Senate votes and pick up 2 from the dwindling group of Gop moderates.

The best news would also come among the political death of GOP governors like Arnold, Pataki, Mitt Romney, and Jody Rell and wingers who are term limited Ehrlich, Owens.

Langevin decided not to run. So now we're supposed to believe he can't handicap his own state, and one of our backup outponies will simply romp in his place? OK.

How many GOP incumbents have lost recently in major statewide races? I can think of Benson (NH gov) and Hutchinson (AR senate). Maybe the 2002 Wyoming gov race. In Arkansas we had the advantage of a well known son of a major political figure in the state's recent history. In Rhode Island, that is flopped in Chafee's favor. I remember last year he polled 25 points higher than Bush in popularity in Rhode Island.

In a gov race I might believe Chafee was vulnerable, even though Rhode Island, despite it's partisan index, is comfortable with a GOP governor who will apparently be re-elected. But in a federal race like senate I just don't buy it and I also don't believe Chafee will lose the typical incumbent percentage among undecideds. Post 9/11 the GOP has a small but critical edge in party ID shift and the late undecideds tend to default heavily to national security concerns at the end. On other sites, if not here, I posted that repeatedly last year in insisting the projected numbers of undecideds to Kerry were wildly optimistic and out of bounds. It is true the party ID shift is much less prevalent in the New England states.

or would he have been another
defecting New Englander, like
former Republican Senator Jeffords?

an old saying -- the Supreme Court
follows the elections.
well, so do some fence-sitting Senators.

we lost the last election, lost it badly,
swept in the South, our Senate leader
turned out in the Plains, etc. maybe
Senator Chafee noticed the results
and he is going with the flow, simply
following the national will expressed
on election day.

did you notice we badly lost the Senate?

the Democratic problems are not in
Rhode Island, but are plentiful almost
everywhere else.
we need to work harder and smarter
almost everywhere else.

and nevermind Senator Chafee. if we
happened to pick up five other seats
elsewhere, to tie the Senate 50-50,
we just might find him on our side
come the next January, following
the national will expressed in the
election returns of '06.

so let's use our lmited firepower to
defeat the third-ranked Republican
Senator from Pennsylvania and
a few other well-deserving targets
where we can really see a difference
and make a real change.

The Provience Journal reports that Chafee raised @ $400,000 and Brown has repeatedly refused to release his number.

It is still early, but it is looking better and better everyday to replace Chafee with a real Democrat.