Q-Poll Confirms Nelson's Lead Over Harris

There once was a time when Bill Nelson was a very endangered Democratic incumbent Senator from Florida. That time has passed:
U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, still carrying baggage from her controversial role in the 2000 Presidential vote count, trails Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson 50 - 38 percent in an early look at the 2006 Florida Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Republicans back Harris 72 - 15 percent, while Democrats back Nelson 80 - 11 percent and independent voters go with the Democrat 61 - 27 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Gender is not an issue, as women back the Democrat 52 - 37 percent, and men go with Nelson 48 - 39 percent.

Sen. Nelson has a 46 - 23 percent approval rating, and 38 percent of Florida voters want to see him reelected next year, with 37 percent who want a new Senator.

But voters disapprove 43 - 33 percent of the role Harris played in the 2000 Presidential vote count and 37 percent say they are less likely to vote for her because of it.

Harris might as well be an incumbent, since her name ID is higher than Nelson's. Despite this, she is languishing in the 30's, while Nelson floats around 50. These results were similar the Mason-Dixon poll from last week. They are also similar to Bush's current situation, as Republicans and Democrats canceling each other out while independents, overwhelmingly opposed to Harris, provide for a new Democratic majority.

Harris is toxic, and could help Dems on all levels in Florida 2006. It also appears that there is no turning back for Florida Republicans now, as this poll confirms Strategic Vision in showing Harris with an insurmountable lead in the Republican primary:

When asked who they would like to see run for U.S. Senate in 2006, 54 percent of Florida Republican voters pick Harris, followed by 10 percent for Lee and 6 percent for Bense.
In 2006, the Florida Senate now must be considered "lean Dem."



Display:


Harris (none / 0)

Despite having a strong Republican congressional district she clings around the 55% mark in the general election.  That makes her the shakiest incumbent GOper in Florida's congressional delegation.  And she has raised and spent plenty of money for both races.  A million bucks the last time.

Guess she owes us (actually she owes the whole country).

by David Kowalski on Wed Jun 29, 2005 at 03:48:11 PM EST

But... (none / 0)

if we don't get a clean vote count with fair machines, it really doesn't mean much.  All it means is she'd have to close the gap to 5% or less and then it's, "Hey, she had a lot of momentum coming into election day!  Floridians LOVE what she did for them in 2000!"
by Village Jenius on Wed Jun 29, 2005 at 04:07:04 PM EST

Who is willing to put the bell on the cat. (none / 0)


My information is that the Florida party
is in a disarray. They certainly have
trouble with their accounting; its a very
simple matter to know if you're paying
payroll taxes because you'll see a 28% different
in your checking account.

This being a national blog, I'm not certain
what the floridians say about all of this -
but the truth be known - the scandal in 2000
around Bush didn't hurt him there in 2004 when
Florida elected him president so beware
to live by the crystal ball or you'll soon
be eating a diet of ground glass..

by turnerbroadcasting on Wed Jun 29, 2005 at 05:14:56 PM EST

chris! (none / 0)

check your email!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

now!!!!!!

Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Wed Jun 29, 2005 at 05:26:35 PM EST

not so quick (none / 0)

As a Floridian, I can attest that the current party situation is at best dire.  A recent IRS tax lien left behind by Scott Maddox has clouded matters, and money is not good at the moment.  The FDP (really, Scott Maddox) is on about his seventh or eighth day of constant bad press.

Nelson is not known to be the world's best candidate (or for that matter, Senator), and ended up letting his 2000 opponent, Bill McCollum make a race of things, when for much of the lead up, Nelson had a two digit lead in the polls.

Harris is the Democrats' best hope, but even then, Nelson is going to have to fight for his life.  If by some chance that Bense does get in this race and does beat Harris, then Nelson might be in a world of trouble.

by thelastdem on Wed Jun 29, 2005 at 07:13:40 PM EST

Re: not so quick (none / 0)

True the disgusting failure of dems here in my state to get 04 revenge for 00 was much to the fault of the state party.

With a new FL dem chief in, hopefully that will all change.  It will also change when the former head of the FL party drops out of the gov race.  We shouldn't promote losers within our own party.

Make no mistake about it, Democratic Party reform is not just needed in the starving red states of flyover country.  The Sunshine State needs a little TLC too.

by Sam Loomis on Wed Jun 29, 2005 at 07:27:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I want to word this carefully. (none / 0)

I don't think the Democrats who are the leaders in Florida really want much change.  I think they would like to win here, but I don't think most will be willing to stand up and do what is needed.  

That said, I hope I am wrong.   We presented Bill Nelson with a very specific outrage in our county recently.  He could easily fix it, but he has not even acknowledged our research on the issue.  He has 52% approval rating among Republicans, and only 47% among Democrats.  He is not about to harm that 5% advantage.  

I do not support any candidate for governor right now.  However, the bad press for Maddox started before all the facts were out.   I think we need to reserve such condemnation until another audit is finished.  One already shows no money missing, but I see no one saying so to the media.  

I don't defend him yet, but I won't condemn him yet either.  

I do expect our Democrats here to start standing up and looking more like Democrats.  Many of us who contacted Nelson this week expect a response.  I get more response now from my GOP congressman than I do from Nelson's office.  That is just wrong.  

I expect the party members who jumped the gun on this audit thing with Maddox to back off until the facts are in.  That is only fair. He collected a good amount at a fundraiser the last couple of days.  Many are like us, we will support and vote for him if there is even a breath of suspicion he was set up.  We will be right there...very quickly with money.  

by concerned democrat on Wed Jun 29, 2005 at 09:00:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Lookin' Good (none / 0)

Wow, a 2-to-1 advantage with the indies.

That's huge.

by Tod Westlake on Wed Jun 29, 2005 at 08:06:55 PM EST

Doesn't all this polling means (none / 0)

they will dump her for a better candidate choice
by bruh21 on Wed Jun 29, 2005 at 09:09:26 PM EST

Not necessarily (none / 0)

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x12942.xml?ReleaseID=746

Nelson leads Tom Lee 53-30 and Allan Bense 55-26. Jeb and Rove have indicated that they would rather see Bense as the nominee.

In a Florida GOP primary poll, Harris has a wide lead, 54% to 10% for Lee and 6% for Bense.

by ih8thegop on Thu Jun 30, 2005 at 01:35:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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