What To Expect In Bush's Speech

Back when we did our quick survey of the rise of the modern conservative movement through the briefly lived MyDD Book Club, the first piece we looked at was Phillip Agree's What Is Conservatism and What Is Wrong With It? In the piece, Agree urged liberals to read the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal, as it typically provides the best insight into new conservative arguments that will soon be nationalized:
The Wall Street Journal's opinion page is the most important conservative publication, and it is often described as a bulletin board for the conservatism. A better metaphor, however, would be a war room. Day by day, the Wall Street Journal's editors detect liberal arguments coming over the horizon, and immediately they gather up and distribute the arguments that conservatives will need to rebut them. Since the retirement of its late editor Robert Bartley, the Journal's opinion page has become more sophisticated. The crude lies and belligerent irrationality of the Bartley era have not disappeared, but they have certainly been attenuated. Daniel Henninger in particular does something interesting with clouds of associations that are subrational but not quite fallacious.
With this advice in mind, and with Rov'e comments now a few days old, check out the latest editorial from the WSJ:
The polls show the American people are growing pessimistic about Iraq, and no wonder. They are being rallied against the cause by such statesmen as the two above. Six months after they repudiated the insurgency in a historic election, free Iraqis are continuing to make slow but steady political and military gains. Where the terrorists are gaining ground is in Washington, D.C.
Operation blame the liberals has expanded into operation blame all war critics. Criticizing the war means you are helping the terrorists. Expect much of the same from Bush tomorrow, even if in somewhat more Luntz-approved language.

Speaking of expansion:
The proposal to fix a date certain for U.S. withdrawal is especially destructive, inviting the terrorists to wait us out and Iraqi ethnic groups to start arming themselves. The only important idea we've heard from Congress is John McCain's suggestion that if Damascus keeps abetting the insurgency, the U.S. is under no obligation to honor Syria's territorial integrity when pursuing terrorists seeking sanctuary in that country.
Of course, the belligerent irrationality might be replacing the subconscious clouds of association again. Look at these three sections (emphasis mine):
This is despite tangible, albeit underreported, progress in Iraq. In the political arena, an Iraqi transition government has formed that includes representatives from all ethnic and religious groups. Leading Sunnis who boycotted January's election are now participating both in the parliament and in drafting a new constitution. The Shiite uprising of a year ago has been defeated. The government now has three deadlines to meet: drafting a constitution by August, a referendum on that constitution in October and elections for a permanent government in December.(...)

As for security, the daily violence is terrible and dispiriting, but it is not a sign of an expanding insurgency. As U.S. and Iraqi military targets have hardened their defenses, the terrorists have turned to larger bombs delivered by suicidal jihadists aimed at softer targets. This drives up the casualty figures, especially against Iraqi civilians, but it does not win more political converts.(...)

Insurgencies that have prevailed in history--Algeria, China, Cuba--have all had a large base of popular support. That more of the bombers seem to be coming from outside Iraq is cause for worry, since it means there will be a continuing supply of suicide bombers. But it also means that the insurgency is becoming an invasion force against Iraq itself, which means it lacks the native roots to sustain it.

The trend is in fact toward more civilian cooperation with Iraqi and U.S. security forces. Calls to the military hotline have climbed to 1,700 from 50 in January, according to U.S. commanders, and better intelligence has led to the recent capture of key insurgent leaders, including a top deputy to Musab al-Zarqawi. An Iraqi TV show profiling captured jihadists--"Terrorism in the Hands of Justice"--is a popular hit.

Everyone wishes that Iraqi security forces could be trained faster to replace U.S. troops, and to secure areas from which terrorists have been ousted. But here, too, there has been progress. About 100 Iraqi units are now able to conduct special operations on their own. General George Casey, the Iraq theater commander, says there has not been a single failure of an Iraqi military unit since the election. And new recruits continue to volunteer, even though this makes them terrorist targets.

Mr. Biden delivered a lecture last week that boiled down to letting France train 1,500 Iraqi "gendarmes" and pressing for 5,000 NATO troops to patrol the Syrian border. Both are fine with us, assuming Mr. Biden gets to negotiate with the French, but neither is going to turn the tide of war.

If tangible progress is being made in the political arena, if the insurgency is not expanding, if the insurgency is not winning more converts, if the insurgency is losing its support among the native population, if the native population is starting to offer more help the US forces, and if the Iraqi security forces are strengthening, why would we even need to "turn the tide of the war?" The Journal tells us that things are improving in nearly way possible, which one would think is tantamount to turning the tide of the war, and then tells us that we still need to turn the tide of the war. Brutal irrationality indeed. Further, the WSJ likes to assure us that the rising body counts are a result of increasing attacks on “softer targets,” ie, civilians. However, the fact is that violence against Iraqi Security forces and coalition occupational forces has dramatically increased over the past few months.
Military Fatalities in Iraq
      Iraqi    Coalition    Total    Daily
Jun    282         78        360      13.3
May    270         88        358      11.5
Apr    199         52        251      8.4
Mar    200         40        240      7.7
Feb    103         60        163      5.8
Jan    109        127        236      7.6
These are not the “soft” civilian targets the Journal speaks of. The insurgency has clearly improved its ability to attack “hard” military targets over the past few months, Now, everyday, more than a baker’s dozen perish. Remember, of course, that setting a timetable for withdrawal will just allow the terrorists to wait things out. It really seems like they are waiting. Brutal irrationality indeed. No wonder the American people aren’t buying it.

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That's some fine reading (none / 0)

Very good analysis and excellent attention to detail and themes. I've always known that those boys at the WSJ are no dummies. I've never understood how intelligent people can be so stupid. I still don't, but at least your analysis makes their tactics and editorials comprehensible.

Sometimes I feel like I'm reading an editorial written by a different species. They sure do put an awful lot of effort into being wrong very persuasively.

by Gary Boatwright on Mon Jun 27, 2005 at 07:35:39 PM EST

Luntz language vs Lakoff Framing (none / 0)

I know that I've mentioned George Lakoff once before, but the mention of Frank Luntz is always enough for me to promote him and his work.

Lakoff is a cognitive scientist and political activist. I highly recommend Lakoff's book "Don't think of an Elephant" to any progressives who are looking for ways to counter the effective GOP use of language.

In "Don't Think of an Elephant" (about $10) Lakoff distills  his scholarly work into  strategy and tactics on values, message and policy.  One importatnt peice of advice is: Don't respond, reframe.

Example:

Republicans frame tax policy as "tax relief" .  Relief implies rescue from something bad.  Interfering with relief is only done by bad guys.   If Democrats respond with a different version of "tax relief", they are stuck in the Republican frame that makes all taxes bad.

On the other hand, taxes can be framed as "Dues".  You don't get to stay in the club, in this case, the country with the best infrastructure, highest standard of living, and best opportunity for all, unless you pay your dues, just as 200 years of Americans have done.  Those Americans paid there dues to help build the club, are we so unpatriotic that we'll skimp on maintainance?

One of our challenges is to change the frames of the Iraq debate, particularly the frames that equate conservatism with patriotism.

A modest proposal (improvement welcome):

When confronted with "The Terrorists win because Liberals are soft", Reframe as "We need effective policy abroad and honest decision making at home to win."  I like to think this frame turns turns the focus from "Are liberals/conservatives more effective" to "Are these policies actually working?"

Check out Lakoff's progressive Rockridge Institute: http://www.rockridgeinstitute.org/

by Mudshark on Mon Jun 27, 2005 at 10:15:18 PM EST

"war on terror" (none / 0)

I think another major point of this recent campaign and of tonight's speech is to restore the confusion surrounding the terms "9/11", "war on terror" and "Iraqi freedom." We see evidence of this already, as some media venues (such as NPR ) have referred to this as a speech on Iraq (and thats the line that KErry took in his pre-buttal) but CNN is plumping it as a Presidential address about "the war on terror."

I think while Rove and Cheney attack war critics as traitors, Bush will try to give a way for those becoming skeptical of the war to support it, by reminding them of the original lie they were told that got us in the mess in the first place.

by desmoulins on Tue Jun 28, 2005 at 02:45:56 PM EST


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