Democrats and Independents in a new majority

The Bush numbers in the ARG Economy poll out show that his slump continues to downgrade into longterm lameduckness:
Among Republicans (36% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 84% approve of the way Bush is handling his job and 12% disapprove. Among Democrats (38% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 18% approve and 77% disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job. Among Independents (26% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 17% approve and 75% disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job as president.
It's the number among the Independents that's gone way off the Bush reservation. Look at the spread:
               Approve       Disapprove
Republicans    84            12
Independents   17            75
Democrats      18            77
It's an alignment I've not seen in many years, since '98 probably. What it says is that Independents and Democrats have a potential new majority, apart from the lockstep Republicans. Post Sept. 11th's upswing of non-partisanship, and then all through 2004, the Independents remained in the 50-50 range in reaction to Bush. Now they've shifted, and further, have aligned with Democrats. Rove's got to do something, because this puts Bush in dangerous territory. Gone are the 50-50 days, and approaching are the 40-60 days:
Bush job approval       Approve         Disapprove      Undecided
Jun 2005                42%             53%             5%
May 2005                43%             51%             6%
Apr 2005                44%             50%             6%
Mar 2005                47%             48%             5% 
What Rove has relied upon in the past, when confronted with such a situation was done tearing down and dividing of the Democrats, alongside the appeal to Republicans to become even more lockstep. ie, get the Independents back to ~50-50 and the Republicans up to 90-10 in support of Bush.

Like the Summer of '04, following the torture of prisoners at Abu Gharib, that was followed up with the Swift Boat Liars attack on Kerry; or the summer of '02, after the market crash due to the Enron's of the world, that was followed up by the vote to invade Iraq. With Bush/Rove's back up against the wall, I expect another round.



Display:


Absolutely (none / 0)

this is 100% correct i believe too.

the key THIS time howver is for the Dems to stop behaving like a battered wife, and take a hefty frying pan to their gonads.

Once they lay them out, this tactic, and anytning else they can do will be ineffectual form here on out.

We can them move smothly from defense ot offense and later in the year, early next year begin to lay out our 2006 vision and alternative.

Pound their sickness, pound their corruption, and pound their abject failure, and the abject failure of conservatism.

there is no need ot call them nazis or fascists, if we act tough and effectively they already have a name - conservatives.

by Pounder on Fri Jun 24, 2005 at 09:55:16 PM EST

Re: Absolutely (none / 0)

Do you see any signs in the national leadership on these strategy issues of the Democrats not acting like victims? They were asking for an apology rather than saying the only reason why Rove made these comments is to distract from a failure in Republican values, policies and leadership. It's nice to see this in blogs, but what about where it counts- in one of the rare moments that they get a chance to talk in the national media?
by bruh21 on Fri Jun 24, 2005 at 10:04:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Quick! We need a war! (none / 0)

Who's ass can we kick easily and cheaply? Preferably in this hemisphere to save on shipping.
Witty comment goes here...
by michael in chicago on Fri Jun 24, 2005 at 10:50:35 PM EST

Re: Quick! We need a war! (none / 0)

Did you notice yesterday's headline that Iran is harboring al Qaeda and their new President wants to impose "1979" government policies?

Yeah, guess what.  We will soon put back toghether the Iraqi military to attack Iran.  What better way to get many insurgents to quit fighting us than to allow them to fight the Iranians.

Start date?  Oh, about June 2008 I guess.  

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics
by Robert P on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 12:06:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No (none / 0)

The Iraqi military can't protect their own country from a bunch of yahoos with car bombs-they can't possibly invade another one.

No, if we attack Iran, it will be US forces doing the attacking.  I don't think it will be a full invasion-more like air power and special ops attacks, mostly against thier nuke sites.

The thing is, Iran is no pushover like Iraq was.  I fear the retaliation from the Iranians.

by Geotpf on Mon Jun 27, 2005 at 01:36:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No (none / 0)

Don't confuse our poor attempt at an Iraqi army with the insurgents, who came from the former Iraqi army.   I am not claiming to be omnipotent, but mere hours later it was revealed that we were holding secret talks with the insurgents.  Wonder why?  To make a cease fire, accept them into the ARMY, attack Iran.
BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics
by Robert P on Tue Jun 28, 2005 at 12:58:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rove is certainly working hard (none / 0)

I have never really understood the "tails", the  people registered in one Party but de facto best considered Independents or defectors.  But Democrats have a pretty consistent ~20% contingent, Republicans a ~10% contingent.

The story here is indeed Independents.  It has been since late 2003, when the last moderate Democrats gave up on the present Republicanism.  My analysis is that there are about five or six major issues, and the story is how voter demographics- presently Indies and some moderate Republicans- give up on one hardline Republican policy set after another.  (My list is Economic, Social, Ethics, Diplomacy, Military(Iraq), Terrorism.)  Indies are down to believing the Bush Administration on Terrorism, and even that is beginning to fade.  Still, some very hard emphasis on terrorism could run Bush support up again.

When Indies fully give up on the Terrorism policy, or their trust in the Bush people on it (there being very little actual policy to speak of), that's when Democrats win Indies.  That means the Presidency in '08.  Moderate Republicans are where the game is for the '06 elections, though.  Democrats are going to have to counterattack once the present Republican effort to rally fades again.

by killjoy on Fri Jun 24, 2005 at 11:05:47 PM EST

Re: Rove is certainly working hard (3.00 / 1)

To me the most interesting numbers are those on the economy.

"A total of 60% of registered voters in America say they disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy while 63% of all Americans rate the national economy as bad, very bad, or terrible according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. Among all Americans, 37% say they approve of the way Bush is handling the economy and 59% disapprove."

Peoples' perception of theri own economic situation, and the economy generally, are pretty dismal and getting worse.  thgis creates an opening for the Dems if they will take it.

It is not just a matter of hitting back at Bush, but convincing a majority that the Dems have something to offer.  Healthcare, a return to fiscal responsibility, real economic security.  

 

by Mimikatz on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 12:30:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't understand this (none / 0)

Mainly because the economy is, by all accounts, good.  Not dot com era screaming great, but not bad at all (with some geographic exceptions, mainly in the rust belt (Penn/Ohio/Michigan/etc.)).  Maybe it's the assault on worker protection and the like by the Republicans-people fear the future, fear the lack of a safety net.  Maybe it's that people are comparing to the dot com era, which was an unstable bubble that collapsing even before 9/11.  Or maybe it's fear in general that scares them, with the Iraq war and terrorism and high gas prices and high health care costs and whatnot.
by Geotpf on Mon Jun 27, 2005 at 01:41:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rove is certainly working hard (none / 0)

We have already seen a crack forming in the GOP machine that has relied heavily upon unity the past few years. With the deal on judicial nominations, the watering down of the Patriot Act, getting the expanded Stem Cell bill through the House, and worry about the war, the Mods have started to drift away from the hard-lining conservatives. That does not bode well for guys like Santorum, DeLay, Burns & Co. because they are going to lose ground with Independents and Mods. It also doesnt bode well in open races because whatever Republican is running will be linked- probably against their will- to to out-of-touch hard core theocons in washington.
by AC4508 on Sun Jun 26, 2005 at 02:27:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Independents? (none / 0)

The question is how many independents really exist? Toss out all that claim to be independent who actually go one way or the other more than three quarters of the time and this number is greatly reduced.

If there is actually anything to be gained, an analysis should focus upon split tickets because  this information is readily available; however, this approach may not eliminate all extranious variables even if spliting tickets is considered a controlling variable for determining the amount of independent voters.

I like the fight; however, I think the majority of  supposedly independent voters are either uninformed or misinformed, do not decide who they're going to vote for based upon logical considerations and should probably not be allowed to step into a voting booth. They don't form any particular block and garnering their vote can best be compared to herding cats.

The best approach is to simply develop a solid program based upon it's appeal to as many as  possible rather than attempting to build coalitions based upon nebulous statistics.

 

by Seldom Seen Smith on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 12:09:53 AM EST

Re: Independents? (none / 0)

Also, most indepedents had a very particular profile to the pollsters until recently. Before 9-11, they were usually male, self-employed, and not living in big cities or the Coasts. Today people vote independent because they want to believe somehow it gives them more choices.

Still, the Democrats's diversity is hurting ourselves against the lockstep Republicans. You have to call out the moronic ad hominem attacks and point out they are just trying to divert attention from their impotent policies. Once people realize that just because there has not been another domestic terror attack since 9-11 does not mean Bush is doing a good job, his house of cards will fall apart.

by risenmessiah on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 01:26:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Independents? (none / 0)

I disagree about the Democrats diversity being a weight.  Yes, the GOoPers being in lockstep has helped in ramming through a legislative agenda.  But   it's the same lockstep quality that's beginning to poison the GOP brand, imo.  

Depending on how you slice and dice the electorate, indpendents tally 25-30 percent of the electorate. They're also the fastest growing group.  Imho, it would be great if we could make more of them feel welcome in the Democratic party instead of feeling they have to be in lockstep with some particular party line du jour.  Let a hundred flowers bloom, let a hundred schools of thought contend.  (Only I mean it.)

 

by InigoMontoya on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 02:37:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Independents? (none / 0)

"should probably not be allowed to step into a voting booth"

I would think that we would want to expand the number of voters and bring more people into the process.

by v2aggie2 on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 10:56:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Independents? (none / 0)

A great many who describe themselves as independents are not. Claiming to be an indepedent alleviates any given individual from the responsibility of doing any intellectual heavy lifting associated with carrying ideological baggage of a particular political party. Given that political parties have historically functioned as the driving engines of change, I do not necessarily believe Jerome's proposition that a majority currently existing between Democrats and supposed Independents is a harbinger of better things to come.

I would think that we would want to expand the number of voters and bring more people into the process.

I don't have any hard conclusions but think it's worth further study whether or not a link exists between the backslide in progressivsim over the past four decades and the rise of the direct primary system as a means for selecting candidates.

I believe you let people off the hook far too easy by allowing anybody over the age of 18 with an asshole to step behind a white curtain and  participate than takes place when you require them to interface with delegates chosen to select their party's respective candidates. My preference would be to have those politcially active decide who best represents the party.    

by Seldom Seen Smith on Sun Jun 26, 2005 at 05:34:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Independents? (none / 0)

Too many Sunday afternoon beers = too many spelling errors: My apologies.
by Seldom Seen Smith on Sun Jun 26, 2005 at 05:50:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Independents? (none / 0)

But then you have a system of insiders, basically.

Independents could concievably become Democrats.
If they don't care about politics, perhaps it is our fault.

by v2aggie2 on Sun Jun 26, 2005 at 09:59:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sorry, I won't believe it until I see it... (3.00 / 2)

Dems are still perceived as spineless.  Durbin apologizing reinforced that notion.  That made me so mad, because just when I think we have gotten over the hump, we have people like Joe Biden attacking Dean and Durbin apologizing for stating the obvious.  Grow some fucking spine Dems, its getting old.  On a positive note, Dean has been kicking ass and taking names.

But, if we don't go for the jugular every day, the Republicans will win yet again with their vicious attacks.

Democrats need to continue attacking, just like Howard Dean has been doing since January.  If I hear one more democrat knock down a fellow democrat, I think I am going to lose it.

by agpc on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 12:40:06 AM EST

Your right (none / 0)

Enough is Enough.  I am tired of getting kick in the ass for speaking truth to power. When our leaders speak the truth, they need to stand up and be proud.  Only then will the Democrats take the country back.
by SRconbio on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 02:52:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your right (3.00 / 1)

I agree; Americans aren't looking for an opposition party that professes to do exactly
what the Republicans have done, but claim they can do with more success and more openness and accountability ... they're looking for an opposition party that isn't afraid.  There is nothing that characterizes the climate of our country today more than fear.

Toward the end of the last presidential campaign, I became way too comfortable
with the idea that the most "electable" candidate was the least controversial,
and the least likely to risk controversy ... most of those more politically
experienced and more politically astute than I said so.  The Party "insiders"
all seemed to think so too.  I was wrong to listen ... a lot of us were.  Incidentally, I voted Republican for 28 years prior to last, so I also didn't feel very qualified in recommending to Democracts how to run a presidential campaign ... yet I am convinced now that I know who was the Democratic candidate in the race who was most likely to win ... and I supported that candidate.

I do believe one thing, though, courage can be exhausting and it burns people
out, because you can't practice it just once or just when it's convenient.  No
one who consistently looks for the "easy way out" can exemplify courage.
Courage is not something you "do" ... it's something you carry as an
integral part of you.  And our nation needs leaders who live by courageous
resolve ... for whom standing up for what's right has become a habit.

by Charles in AL on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 09:34:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sorry, I won't believe it until I see it... (3.00 / 1)

When are the Democrats going to get together and talk about what they stand for as a progressive party? I am sick of the moderates in our party going after anyone that is to the left of them when they make justified, controversial, and overhyped accusations. They jump ship and abandon their base - their ideology - to pander to the middle and the right.

Our ideals are not there for convenience, just to be ditched when election day rolls around in favor of less offensive positions: our ideals are our party. We need to sit down and all agree what we stand for, then defend each other tooth and nail on the tenets of those ideals.

by T Dubya Ault on Mon Jun 27, 2005 at 05:33:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Be very afraid (none / 0)

If Rove/Bush/Cheney feels threatened, they will likely kill Americans.

I've never been a big believer in the Bush connection to 9/11 - sure its possible, but I just didn't know - maybe I didn't want to know.  But I happened to catch a movie on cable the other night that I'd never seen before, and now I can't get it out of my head - 'The Long Kiss Goodnight'.  After watching it, a Bush connection does not seem so far fetched.

If the three psychos feel their back is to the wall, they may turn on US.  Rove seems to stick with what works, and repeating the process over and over and over.  If they truly are behind 9/11, they may decide it's time for another one...

Eek!

by JFN1 on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 02:37:21 AM EST

I guess the previous FOX poll really was... (none / 0)

an outlier. The ARG poll of registered voters is consilient with all the other polls.

by piniella on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 02:41:50 AM EST

But will that help get progressive legislation ? (none / 0)

I will tell you what will get progressive legislation passed.

We need a huge movement that will hit some Republican contributors in their wallets.

With your money you can influence what goes on in congress legally.

Consider this. What if suddenly next week 100,000 people called WALMART at 1 800 WALMART and told them, unless you can get the Republican congress to pass a TEN dollar minimum wage we will not buy from you and we will get our friends to call you and tell you that they will not buy from you.

This huge movement of people suddenly calling and telling Walmart that they will lose our money unless the Republican led congress does what we want will influence them strongly and it appears legal.

Will you join me?

http://www.boycott-republicans.com

by maximus7 on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 05:35:30 AM EST

Soften people up (none / 0)

I also like the idea of distributing bumberstickers that say

"HAD ENOUGH?  NEXT TIME VOTE DEMOCRATIC!"  

Or some similar slogan.  Have them start appearig all over the country.  last time i suggested this someone had another good slogan.  We have to keep reminding people that there are choices.

by Mimikatz on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 12:34:18 PM EST

You keep us losing... (3.00 / 1)

You all talk of the arrogance of the Republicans. It is the new left wing of the Democratic party that has us losing. You call yourselves the Democratic and traditional wing of the Democratic Party. Take a look at the traditional Democrats (FDR, Roosevelt, Kennedy, and Johnson). None were liberals, not even Kennedy who would be considered now a fiscal conservative and social moderate. The Americans want a positive agenda, and doing things like constantly opposing Bush by 'going for the jugular' and allowing the Howard Dean's to run the party unchecked will keep us in an evershrinking minority.

Don't read too much into these polls. SEcond term, independents always get tired of the incumbant. Clinton kept up with independents because the Reps offered only attacks. People know there are chooses, but they would much rather not vote if they hear the same things from BOTH sides. You offer no positive agenda and work on hate and fear of Reps, while the Republicans work of fear of gays and liberals.

Kerry only came close to winning because of the hate, but I assure you, liberals will only remain in the minority. Every social or democratic or labour party has won by going to the center. Take a hint from Clinton, James Carville, Tony Blair, Schroder, and others.

by MODERATEdem on Sat Jun 25, 2005 at 05:50:21 PM EST

Re: You keep us losing... (none / 0)

Yeah.  Because clearly the Republicans have been playing nice with the Democrats over the past 10 years.  There was no political payoff whatsoever in their vicious attacks.

Oh, whats that?  They control both the legislature and executive?  Hmmm, perhaps emulating their strategy might be a good idea.  

Howard Dean is a man of convictions.  Thats what this party needs more than anything else right now - conviction to stand by our core beliefs.  

Your assumptions about him being a liberal are off the mark.  He was against the war in Iraq, supported afghanistan, and is a fiscally conservative guy.  You should listen to what he actually says instead of what the media tells you that he says before judging Mr. Dean.

by agpc on Sun Jun 26, 2005 at 12:55:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You keep us losing... (none / 0)

LMAO!

Hey, Mr. Moderate!

Thanks for all the leadership you moderates have shown us over the last 20 years. You guys've been great for the party and the nation!

Look how you've enhanced our grip on the legislature!

Oh, wait, you've continuously lost ground in the legislature.

Look how you moderates have kept winning the White House!

Oh, wait, only Clinton did that.

But Clinton won twice and helped establish the credibility of the Democratic Party for a generation, right?

Oh, wait. After 8 years of Clinton, no one could tell what the party stood for.

But at least when Clinton accomplished a right wing, Republican agenda, he sure made it impossible for Rove to label us as liberals, right?

Oh, wait. They call us liberals all the time anyway, even non-liberals like Howard Dean, who governed from the right of the party.

Ya know, I gotta be frank here. I am having a bit of difficulty getting clear.

What is it again that you moderates have done to make the Dem Party stronger?

And how have you made a difference in America?

And where would the Dem Party be right now without the progressives donating time, energy and money? How much access to corporate money have you moderates still got after 20 years of the K Street Project?

And the Progressives are going to "keep us losing"?

Shall I read it this way:

We Progressives are going to maintain the fine, continuous losing streak that you moderates have done such a stirling job of maintaining?

It would be virtually impossible to do any worse than moderate Dems have done on any measurable scale.

So let's take a shot doing it the right way. You guys've left us nothing to lose.

by Thresholder on Sun Jun 26, 2005 at 02:29:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You keep us losing... (none / 0)

Didn't you read Jerome's post?  

Your views are precisely what is NOT happening across America today. Sixty percent of the country is in fact drifting to the political Left. Jerome posted the statistics.

The point here isn't to defend either moderate OR progressive views -- the point is to speak the truth about what's going on, whether it is "Liberal" or "moderate."  

The problem with "moderate" democrats today isn't that they are moderate. It's that they are out of touch with what has been going on and with what the GOP is doing to the rest of us.  You are a perfect textbook example of that.      

If you have something positive and specific to present, then present it.  Otherwise, get off Dean's back.  He's at least got some practical ideas.

sc

by scribble on Sun Jun 26, 2005 at 04:39:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What keeps amazing me about these polls: (none / 0)

The American people are turning against Thugs WITH NO MEDIA AND NO OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP!

They're takinng these stands on their own.

Gawd! Imagine if a powerful opposition leader stood up and LED THEM!

To me, the question is this:

Can the American people figure it out for themselves and vote in a lame Dem Party, who will then have a chance to grow into the possibilities and responsibilities?

Or are we stuck in impotence until an opposition leader comes along?

If Rove had to face a real opposition, he woulda been out on his ass long ago.

by Thresholder on Sun Jun 26, 2005 at 02:20:11 PM EST

WTF... (none / 0)

Bush does better among Democrats (18% approval) than  Independents (17% approval). What's up with that?
by bushsucks on Mon Jun 27, 2005 at 11:27:17 AM EST

Wait a minute... (none / 0)

Did I just hear the terror alert go up?
http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Mon Jun 27, 2005 at 12:56:47 PM EST

For lack of a trackback mechanism... (none / 0)

Iraq - Packaged for Democratic Consumption

The recent Survey USA state by state approve v. Disapprove poll for Bush was UGLY from the Bush perspective. He is tanking hard in all of the Blue states, but he is still polling comparatively decently in the Red states with the exception of Ohio and Nevada. Chris Bowers at MyDD does some number crunching using the 10 region taxonomy developed by Commonwealth. He notes that Bush is bleeding support in the blue states at a fast clip. However he is adding to his personal approval ratings in Southern states, the Mississippi River Valley and Appalachia at a reasonable clip.

The Unpaid Punditry Corps

Comments From Left Field
by Goose3five on Fri Jul 01, 2005 at 10:02:28 AM EST


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