Even though we are still seventeen months from full-blown netroots participation in the 2008 Presidential campaign, if you are anything like me, no matter far out it is you still want to know which way the netroots winds are blowing. That is why, last Thursday, MyDD started running
a poll on the Democratic Presidential nomination for 2008. Although
it was hardly our first poll on this subject, there have been more votes in this poll than any other which has appeared on MyDD. Concurrently,
a poll on the subject has been running over at Dailykos, which has seen a similar astronomical participation rate. It is somewhat tricky to combine the two polls, largely because Dailykos polls can have twelve options while MyDD polls can only have ten. However, even with that in mind, and even with Kos already providing us with his thought on the poll,
here is a quick rundown of how I read the results:
- Clark. Clark clearly starts out with an edge among the netroots. Combined at Dailykos and MyDD, he received 26.2% of the vote, a little bit more than double that of any other candidate. This is not really surprising, considering that Clark was quite popular among the netroots in 2003-2004. With Dean out of the picture, Obama not running, Feingold weakened by recent events, and a generally centrist field, Clark with probably maintain his edge for some time. The benefits of this position are not limited to having the largest support among the netroots, as one has to imagine that much of Clark's support comes from the "old guard" among Internet activists. This could also provide him with experience and talent unavailable to other candidates.
- Clinton. I have watched over the months as she has steadily risen in these sorts of polls here at MyDD. Now, even with nearly 16,000 votes cast at Dailykos and MyDD combined, she has narrowly pulled into second place (11.4% in the two polls combined). If Clinton runs for President, and is the second favorite candidate online, it is really, really hard to imagine how she will not win the nomination.
- Feingold Electability has always played a role in choosing candidates, and among the netroots it is no different. Clearly, recent personal events have damaged Feingold's perceived chances to both run for President and to become President were he to run. There was a time when I believed wholeheartedly that Russ had a chance to build a netroots movement much, much larger than what Dean put together in 2003. However, that does not look as though it will come to pass now. In the past, he had led these polls both at Dailykos and MyDD. Now, I imagine he will have a difficult time regaining that position.
- Edwards As I have noted in the past, Edwards has taken some strong steps toward building a base among the netroots. Despite this, he still languished behind Hillary (8.5% of the vote combined). In fact, if anything, his stock is actually dropping among the netroots. Can't say I know why, but it will be interesting watch his movement in these polls over the next year.
- Richardson and Warner. These two governors form an interesting third-tier all their own. At 5.0% and 5.7% respectively, they are already drawing a reasonable amount of support despite being new faces to the scene. As comparative unknowns, right now, it would appear that these two would have the most "breakout" potential of anyone outside of Clark (and possibly even including Clark).
- The rest. I'll quote from Kos on this one: "So what do we know? The field is clearly wide open, and there's a sense that we can do better than this lot. Gore, in particular, seems to have a lot of potential support if he were to express interest in running (he hasn't)." It is hard to see well-knowns like Kerry and Biden, already below 3% in these polls, gaining much traction at all. Bayh and Vilsack might have better chances, but Vilsack did not even break 1%, and Bayh ahs the blogosphere despised specter of the DLC about him. Someone could potentially be drafted into the field, or break out of this pack with a series of popular and bold policy proposals.
It is still really, really early. Expect more of these polls in the future, of course.
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