In Florida, as I am sure you have heard by now,
Katherine Harris is going to run for Senate. Once you are done vomiting, you might be somewhat encouraged by
this poll from Republican firm Strategic Vision:
Strategic Vision (R) poll. June 9-13, 2005. N=1,200 registered voters statewide. MoE ± 3 (for all registered voters).
Date Nelson Harris
6/13 48 42
4/24 48 41
I wouldn't be surprised if Harris actually has a higher name ID than Nelson, so I don't think the incumbent rule would apply here. Also, this is a Republican poll, so Nelson might be doing a little bit better than this. Further, Harris is a shoe-in to be the Republican nominee, at least according Strategic Vision:
"Who would you support for the Republican nomination for United States senator in 2006: [see below]?" Among Republican voters
6/13 4/24
Katherine Harris 47 35
Charlie Crist 15 20
Tom Gallgaher 11 18
Toni Jennings 7 9
Others 7 10
Undecided 13 8
There is reason to hope that Harris being in the race
will greatly boast turnout among Democrats across Florida in 2006. Further, despite her high name ID, people clearly do not like her. In fact, Nelson is actually behind a couple of Republican candidates, Crist and Gallagher, in the same Strategic Vision poll that he leads Harris. Although this is not a slam-dunk by any means, it is nice to see that Republicans are probably going to choose a candidate as poor as Katherine Harris to run against our most endangered incumbent. Against almost anyone else, Nelson would have been in a lot of trouble.
