Democratic Ideological Caucus Change, 2003-2005

I am half way done with my Congressional Loyalty Scorecards for the 108th Congress (I've finished 2003, still yet to complete 2004). Ahtough I am still in the middle of this enormous project, looking back at the previous session of Congress has allowed me to take a break from the question of loyalty and examine the changes from one Congress to the next within the three ideological Democratic caucuses. The results were interesting, to say the least.

Blue Dogs
Added (7): John Barrow (freshman, defeated incumbent, GA-12), Dan Boren (freshman, open seat hold, OK-02), Ben Chandler (freshman, open seat pickup, KY-6), Jim Costa (freshman, open seat hold, CA-20), Stephanie Herseth (freshman, open seat pickup, SD-AL), Charlie Melancon, (freshman, open seat pickup, LA-03), John Salazar (freshman, open seat pickup, CO-03)

Lost (10): Rodney Alexander (still in Congress, left party, LA-05), Brad Carson (no longer in Congress, ran for Senate, OK-02), Ralph Hall (still in congress, left party, TX-04), Baron Hill (no longer in Congress, defeated by challenger, IN-09), Chris John (no longer in Congress, ran for Senate, LA-07), Daniel Lipinski (still in Congress, left caucus to non-affiliated, IL-03), Ken Lucas (no longer in Congress, retired, KY-04), Max Sandlin (no longer in Congress, defeated by map, TX-01), Charles Stenholm, (no longer in Congress, defeated by map, TX-19), Jim Turner (no longer in Congress, retired by map, old TX-2)

Whatever else can be said about the Blue Dogs, they certainly can't be accused of being boring in 2004. The majority of major congressional electoral action seemed to swirl around the Blue Dogs, including the two special election pickups, the two party defectors, three of the Texas Five, several interesting open seat races, defeating a GOP incumbent, having an incumbent outside of Texas defeated by the GOP, and two Senate candidates. There was a lot of hot election action from the Blue Dogs.

Progressives
Added (1): Emmanuel Cleaver (freshman, open seat hold, MO-5)
Lost (1): Donald Payne (still in Congress, left caucus to non-affiliated, NJ-10)

Almost nothing changed for the progressives form the 108th to the 109th Congress. In fact, all members of this Congress received at least 55% of the vote, and all but three received at least 60% of the vote. Blowout city. These members are not going anywhere, and usually represent highly urban areas where Democrats soak up huge percentages of the vote. As a result, these members tend to represent many more Democratic voters than the typical Democratic member of Congress. A case could certainly be made that the extreme Democratic bent to many of these districts is one of the reasons for greater loyalty among the Progressives to the party majority.

New Democrats
Added (6): Russ Carnahan (freshman, open seat hold, MO-3), Ben Chandler (freshman, open seat pickup, KY-6), Eliot Engel (incumbent, joined caucus from non-affiliated, NY-17), Stephanie Herseth (freshman, open seat pickup, SD-AL), Brian Higgins (freshman, open seat pickup, NY-27), Allison Schwartz, (freshman, open seat hold, PA-13)

Lost (43): Tom Allen (still in Congress, left caucus to non-aligned, ME-01), Joe Baca (still in Congress, left caucus but still Blue Dog, CA-42), Chris Bell (no longer in Congress, lost seat to map, old TX-25), Marion Berry (still in Congress, left caucus but still Blue Dog, AR-1), Earl Blumenauer (still in Congress, left caucus to non-aligned, OR-03), Dennis Cardoza (still in Congress, left caucus to non-aligned, CA-18), Brad Carson (no longer in Congress, ran for Senate, OK-02), Jim Cooper (still in Congress, left caucus but still a Blue Dog, TN-05), Bud Cramer (still in Congress, left caucus but still a Blue Dog, AL-05), Cal Dooley (no longer in Congress, retired, CA-20), Peter Deutsch (no longer in Congress, retired, FL-20), Anna Eshoo (still in Congress, left caucus for non-aligned, CA-14), Charlie Gonzales (still in Congress, left caucus to non-aligned, TX-20), Baron Hill (no longer in Congress, defeated by challenger, IN-09), Ruben Hinjosa (still in Congress, left caucus for non-aligned, TX-15), Joe Hoeffel (no longer in Congress, ran for Senate, PA-13), Mike Honda (still in Congress, left caucus for non-aligned, CA-15), Chris John (no longer in Congress, ran for Senate, LA-07), Nick Lampson (no longer in Congress, defeated by map, old TX-09), James Langevin (still in Congress, left caucus for non-aligned, RI-02), Zoe Lufgren (still in Congress, left caucus for non-aligned, CA-16), Ken Lucas (no longer in Congress, retired, KY-04), Denise Majette (no longer in Congress, left to run for Senate, GA-04), Carolyn Maloney (still in Congress, left caucus to non-aligned, NY-14), Jim Matheson (still in Congress, left caucus but still a Blue Dog, UT-02), Bob Matsui (passed, CA-05), Karen McCarthy (no longer in Congress, retired, MO-05), Mike Michaud (still in Congress, left caucus but still a Blue Dog, ME-02), Brad Miller (still in Congress, left caucus but still a Progressive, NC-13), Grace Napolitano (still in Congress, left caucus to non-aligned, CA-38), Silvestre Reyes (still in Congress, left caucus to non-aligned), Mike Ross (still in Congress, left caucus but still a Blue Dog, AR-04), Steve Rothman (still in Congress, left caucus to non-aligned, NJ-09), Max Sandlin (no longer in Congress, defeated by map, TX-01), Brad Sherman (still in Congress, left caucus to non-aligned, CA-27), Vic Snyder (still in Congress, left caucus to non-aligned, AR-02), John Spratt (still in Congress, left caucus to non-aligned, SC-05), Charles Stenholm, (no longer in Congress, defeated by map, TX-19), Bart Stupak (still in Congress, left caucus to non-aligned, MI-01), John Tanner (still in Congress, left caucus but still a Blue Dog, TN-08), Mike Thompson (still in Congress, left caucus but still a Blue Dog, CA-01), Jim Turner (no longer in Congress, retired by map, old TX-2), Robert Wexler (still in Congress, left caucus to non-affiliated, FL-19)

Wow. Just eight years old, the New Democrat Coalition quickly rose to become the largest ideological caucus within the House, and just as quickly lost half of its membership. Here are links to their members in the 108th Congress, and to their members in the 109th Congress). Particularly interesting is that most of the losses came form people, both on the left and the right, who simply left the caucus even though they did not leave the House. This coalition is sponsored by the DLC, which clearly has fallen way, way out of vogue. It just ain't cool to be DLC anymore. Then again, they may have been heavily padding their list for the 108th Congress.

Overall, the Democratic caucus went from having 88 Blue Dogs / New Democrats in the 108th Congress, to just 62 in the 109th Congress. The number of Progressives stayed the same, while non-aligned went from 68 to 91 and became the largest "caucus" within House Democrats.

(Note: Twelve members of the 109th Congress are both Blue Dogs and New Democrats. Tom Udall, NM-03, is both a New Democrat and a Progressive).


Display:


New Democrat membership requirements (none / 0)

The New Dem caucus made some changes to membership requirements as soon as they realized everyone wanted to be a New Democrats. So some of the exodus is related to new dues, fundraising, and attendance requirements of the Caucus.
by niq on Wed Jun 01, 2005 at 06:21:13 PM EST

Chris Bowers, the numbers crunching GOD (none / 0)


by Sam Loomis on Wed Jun 01, 2005 at 08:14:19 PM EST

CHRIS: Stem Cell Vote is Skewing this study!!!! (none / 0)

Your use of the stem cell vote is seriously skewing your project.

In a very rare move, the GOP leadership promised that they would NOT whip against the stem cell bill. Republicans did not try to persuade/force GOPers to vote against it - they explicitly freed members to vote their consciences on the issue. The vote had absolutely NOTHING to do with party loyalty (at least on the republican side, which you calculated) because the GOP said it would exert no pressure on members to vote the way the leadership wanted.

by demhusky on Wed Jun 01, 2005 at 09:54:16 PM EST

Lipinski (none / 0)

Bill Lipinski, Daniel's father left Congress last cycle. This is Daniel Lipinski's first term.
by Kombiz Lavasany on Wed Jun 01, 2005 at 10:19:08 PM EST

DLC All Over Again? (none / 0)

When are they either going to join the Democratic Party.......or leave it, and get jobs as corporate lobbyists?  Caucus was overinflated, AND DLC is seen as unpopular and divisive. Most active Democrats deplore them and what they have done to split,divide, and cynically criticise from the outside.  DLC is long overdue for extinction.
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