British Election - Open Thread

C-SPAN II is carrying BBC coverage and analysis of the election returns, starting at 5 PM eastern time (2 PM pacific, 10 PM in the UK). Coverage continues until 10 PM eastern time (7 PM pacific, 3 AM in the UK). Use this thread to leave your comments on proceedings. I have a sense their might be a number of interesting and surprising results. Even if there aren't, watching all the candidates from a particular constiuency stand on stage and have their vote totals announced - whether they are in the Labour, Conservative, Monster Raving Loony, or Freedom to Smoke Pot Party, is a sight to behold.

Update: The exit polls shows 37 Labour (down 3.3), 33 Conservative (up 1.3) , 22 Liberal Democrat (up 3.7). A sixty-six seat majority for Labour is predicted. More results as they come in.

11:31 (London time) The results so far, which admittedly are very few, look as though things might be even worse for Labour than the exit polls suggest. The overall swing against them might be 5%, which is only 1.5% off from a hung parliment. This might result in a very narrow majority, and the end of Tony Blair as Labour leader. Both the Tories and the Liberals look to make decent gains.

1:35 am: It is starting to look like a big night for the Tories. While the Liberal Demcorats are doing well in picking up Labour seats and old Labour voters, the Tories are picking up both Labour seats and Liberal Democrat seats. Also, while the Liberals are doing well in safe Labour districts, the Tories are gaining almost only in close races. The Labour majority might be less than 40. Gordon Brown might be Prime Minister very soon.

First forecast (1:52 am): Labour 357 (down 46), Tory 201 (up 36), Liberal Democrat 59 (up 8). Labour majority of 68. Perhaps not quite so bad for Labour after all. That would probably be enough for Blair to survive.



Display:


Quite a slap for Blair, eh? (none / 0)

Good.  I hope he's tossed by tomorrow morning.
by Teaser on Thu May 05, 2005 at 05:10:29 PM EST

Disappointing for Lib Dems (none / 0)

Exit poll predicts Lib Dems picking up only 2 seats (Assuming uniform swing)which would be a pretty disappointing result.

Even if Blair stays a 66 majority would be a serious restraint in getting some of his more unpopular reforms past his own, more rebellious, backbenchers. (Like compulsory ID cards)

All sides saying its too early to tell though.

by jdouglas on Thu May 05, 2005 at 05:36:15 PM EST

Re: Disappointing for Lib Dems (none / 0)

LD's are moving up across the entire UK, which is what they need, in the longterm. The BBC on C-Span, this is gonna show how it's done (compared with the crap we get served on MSM election night).
by Jerome Armstrong on Thu May 05, 2005 at 05:51:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Disappointing for Lib Dems (none / 0)

See your point, obviously. Still disheartening though for now!

That said, they're talking already about some seemingly freak Lib Dem wins contrary to the polls, which just shows that things are going differently all around the country.

Do you have American correspondents doing it or has US TV somehow tapped into British coverage?

by jdouglas on Thu May 05, 2005 at 05:56:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Disappointing for Lib Dems (none / 0)

IT's a direct feed of the BBC that's on C-span 2(cspan.org).  
by Jerome Armstrong on Thu May 05, 2005 at 05:58:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't assume uniform swing (3.00 / 1)

Don't assume uniform swing. As I said in the intial post, I think there could be some significant surprises, which the BBC innuendo and rumour mill seems to suggest in the coverage so far.

Ben P

by Ben P on Thu May 05, 2005 at 06:24:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Disappointing for Lib Dems (none / 0)

You could say the Lib Dems succeeded in having a big impact and making their mark... by pulling enough leftish votes to throw a big number of Labour-held swing seats to the Tories (shades of Nader '00, maybe?). So you could call it kind of a "catastrophic success."
by Crazy Vaclav on Thu May 05, 2005 at 07:29:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Blair should have pulled a larger margin (none / 0)

He's still a trooper. I wonder if anyone would like to posit where one should draw the line as to his now reduced majority affecting his status as PM
by turnerbroadcasting on Thu May 05, 2005 at 06:03:09 PM EST

Re: Blair should have pulled a larger margin (none / 0)

They are opening with a forecasted lead of 66 on BBC for Labour, that's a barely survivable loss for Blair, gonna be a bloody night if it gets any worse for Labour.
by Jerome Armstrong on Thu May 05, 2005 at 06:07:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Jack Straw just told the truth (none / 0)

It must not be illegal in Britain for politicians to tell the truth. Jack Straw just admitted that his and Blair's support for the Iraq War cost them votes.

I haven't commented on any of these diaries, because I don't know squat about British politics. Their political candor and media coverage both put America to shame.

by Gary Boatwright on Fri May 06, 2005 at 01:10:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

bbc (none / 0)

Who is that guy doing a terrible impression of Bush ...funny as hell.
by desmoulins on Thu May 05, 2005 at 07:13:24 PM EST

the Freedom to Smoke Pot Party? (none / 0)

I can't believe I never heard of this organization before. I'm so moving to Great Britain.

Are they a regional party? Scottish, perhaps? Might explain why I dinnae ken what they're saying.

Yeah, I'm cynical.
by catastrophile on Thu May 05, 2005 at 07:29:07 PM EST

Re: the Freedom to Smoke Pot Party? (none / 0)

Oh I don't know if there's a party with that name exactly - but there are parties with names like that. I think in '97, there was a "Freedom to Party" Party (which actually was running on a serious issue, to do with raves).
by Ben P on Thu May 05, 2005 at 07:59:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the Freedom to Smoke Pot Party? (none / 0)

There's a Monster Raving Loony Party, too.
by Covin on Thu May 05, 2005 at 08:43:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the Freedom to Smoke Pot Party? (none / 0)

And of course the Silly Party....

:P

by Jeff Fecke on Thu May 05, 2005 at 09:38:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If it drops below 57 blair will be out (none / 0)

The Liberal Democrats pushed Iraq
as an issue, fairly strongly, as I
recall.

Tony Blair looks like he'll stay PM
for another year plus.

by turnerbroadcasting on Thu May 05, 2005 at 08:33:02 PM EST

Re: If it drops below 57 blair will be out (none / 0)

I really wish our congressional candidates were forced to stand together and get the election results.  Especially Tom Delay's district in 2006.
by nascardem on Thu May 05, 2005 at 08:52:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If it drops below 57 blair will be out (none / 0)

I agree.  It's a great way to announce results.  I also like the way the ballots are just...ooh, what's the right word...oh, yes, COUNTED.  Then every candidate are all equals as they stand on stage to hear the results.  

It's a lot more exciting than watching different reporters doing mind-numbing reports from different hotel ballrooms, where the candidates will eventually show up for a celebration or a wake.

by Erin in Flagstaff on Thu May 05, 2005 at 10:22:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

They actually wait for the results! (none / 0)

What a novel concept.  Actually waiting for the results before you announce the results.

Do they have a law against exit polls or do they prohibit publicizing the results until after the votes have been counted?

by Gary Boatwright on Fri May 06, 2005 at 01:15:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: They actually wait for the results! (none / 0)

News organizations are prohibited by law from doing polls the last 24 hours before an election.
by PISSED OFF AMERICAN on Fri May 06, 2005 at 12:51:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Counting votes! (none / 0)

What a quaint tradition. How did they come up with that idea? Doesn't seem very efficient. Haven't they heard of black box voting in Britain?
by Gary Boatwright on Fri May 06, 2005 at 01:22:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Counting votes! (none / 0)

You'd think that you could take the time to count all the votes in the US, especially as the next guy doesn't take over for three months after the election! British MPs go into office the next day.
by jdouglas on Fri May 06, 2005 at 04:48:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

An early report from the Guardian (none / 0)

Cut Down to Size.

Summary: Labor barely holds on, but Lib Dems and Conservatives can't cut the mustard. That's as far as I'm willing to go with an analysis of something I know nothing about.

by Gary Boatwright on Fri May 06, 2005 at 02:29:47 AM EST


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