First up are the state-wide elections in 2006. Even though current Governor Bob Riley (R) will most certainly run for re-election, he'll be faced with a battle in his own party for the nomination by ousted Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court (and better known as the Ten Commandment Judge) Roy Moore. Moore has already shown his fundraising prowess by raising over $1.3 million for his "Foundation for Moral Law," and he's been touring the state setting up his run.

But why would there be a Republican primary contest when Riley already holds the seat? How about some good ol' fashioned conservative over reaching... The right wing of the party has been upset that Riley proposed some tax reform two years ago that would have lowered taxes on the poorest residents, and modestly raised taxes on the wealthiest. They were able to kill that proposal. But a recent episode illustrates a larger divide within the party, and quite possibly the scariest.

Alabama Governors have traditionally declared April "Confederate History and Heritage Month." In issuing his annual proclamation, Riley was pressured to drop a statement previously included that named slavery as one of the causes of the Civil War. Conservative "Heritage" groups applauded the move, but when it hit the press, Riley quickly reversed course and put the line back in. "Heritage" groups now felt betrayed, using revisionist history to say the Civil War was not about slavery, but instead about "tariffs and taxes." Conservative groups rallied around one man - Roy Moore. The president of one such conservative group protecting the veracity of Alabama history added, "Roy Moore will get all of the Confederate vote for governor." Last I looked, you can't register as a "Confederate," but let's just say they're voting in the Republican primary.

On the Democratic side of the race, the field is essentially between current Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley and former Governor Don Siegelman. Baxley enjoys high statewide name ID and very high favorables. Siegelman shares a high name ID from his years in Montgomery, but he's also mired with an ongoing Federal Grand Jury investigation of his former administration, and very high unfavorables.

A recent poll shows Baxley with a double digit lead over the troubled Siegelman, but despite the lagging public support and federal investigation, Siegelman appears prepared to forge ahead. This kind of bull-headedness is what could make Democrats lose the advantage a splintered and over-reaching Republican party hands them - wrapped up with a bow. They are about to do battle between a conservative Republican appearing too moderate to their base, and an evangelical Republican, appearing too radical to the moderates. The opportunity for Baxley to take advantage of a united Democratic party (and what are sure to be many disaffected cross-over moderates following the Republican primary) could be a clear gubernatorial pick-up opportunity in the South.

But beyond the Governor's mansion, the Republican party has made clear its intention to fight with every available resource and is mounting a well coordinated campaign to take back the currently controlled Democratic state Houses. Democrats hold a 15 seat margin in the Senate, and 21 in the House. Sounds like a pretty tall task, but the Republican state machine is targeting key districts, and for the first time, is coordinating a $6 million campaign to regain control. And on top of showing big dollar signs, they are taking a page out of Georgia's playbook, and plan to file a lawsuit to require redrawing the state's District lines. The 2004 gambit in the Peach State netted a new electoral map, and a new Republican control of the state houses. Republican lawmakers will file the suit soon. Democrats have yet to respond with their own coordinated plan to hold (or expand) their leads.

2006 will prove a pivotal year in Alabama politics. The lessons learned from either a successful Democratic race taking advantage of radical-right power grabs, or a disjointed and poorly run Democratic front, will have implications for at least the next decade, and possibly more.

In 2008, Alabama is likely to have the first Southern presidential primary election. The state House recently voted to move the primary to the first Saturday after New Hampshire's primary election, making it the symbolic "Southern Test" for any presidential wannabe. For all the complaining we share about the current primary calendar - it's lack of regional, racial, and issue diversity - an early Alabama primary could address all three of those. And it would certainly force a primary battle requiring candidates to show a broader appeal than just the rural white voters of Iowa and New Hampshire - placing Alabama squarely in the mix for the next White House run.

And finally, in 2010, Alabama will redraw its U.S. Congressional lines with a potential of one less seat - according to U.S. Census projections. Resulting from the long-standing voting rights atrocities of the state, law requires that a certain number of Congressional districts have a majority of black residents. In 2000, that required the 7th District represented by Congressman Artur Davis (D), be expanded in strange contortions throughout west Alabama to keep it a majority black district. If the population within those lines continues to decline, it is possible Alabama will face the elimination of the 7th District altogether. At the beginning of the next decade, Alabama may well prove to be ground zero in a significant test of the Voting Rights Acts (sadly, for more than the first time). But as we've seen all too well in Texas, Georgia and possibly California, it's also a matter of which party is in the driver's seat at the time.

The movement and alignment of these elections are positioning Alabama to become the bellweather Southern state in 2006, 2008 and 2010. Are the Republicans learning from each state experiment and applying lessons learned to manipulate control of the political process in others? Will the Democrats take advantage of the right's greed and radical leaders? Will an Alabama presidential primary that actually matters create a basis for a new Southern strategy for Democrats? Stars are falling on Alabama and I want to see the Democratic party rise up to develop its message and develop a plan to win in more than just the next election.