http://www.ukelect.co.uk/LatestForecast/Forecast.htm

here is their latest forecast on the results:

The percentages used were Lab 36%, Con 33%, Lib Dem 22%, Nationalists 2.5%.

The main change over the last year in our forecasts is a slow reduction in the anticipated total share of the vote won by the two main parties, especially the Labour Party,  and an increase (partly reversed) in the projected Liberal Democrat vote, coupled with an increasing belief that there is a significant possibility of anti-Labour tactical voting in some seats. This is in reaction to the after-effects (and continuing effects) of the Iraq War and a series of unpopular policies such as tuition fees. The combination of these and other factors, in our judgement, created enough anger in a small proportion of the electorate to persuade them to vote for anyone who can defeat the local Labour MP. In this election simulation we again assume that a maximum of 20% of people would be prepared to vote tactically against Labour in the right circumstances. This is a little higher than we have generally previously assumed before this year, but still within what we judge to be a realistic range (and it should also be emphasised that this figure is not the number that we think will vote tactically, simply those who would be prepared to do so if they lived in a constituency where the circumstances were right.)

Party         Seats     Change from 2001 election
Labour           345       -67
Conservative  209       +43
Lib Dems      60        +8
SNP           7         +3
Ulster Un     6         -
DUP           5         -
Plaid Cymru   5         +1
Sinn Fein     4         -
SDLP          3         -
Ind           1         -
Speaker       1         -
Labour Maj    46        -71

They also have different predictions for various turnout rates (imagine that!)...check it out. They also have detailed maps of the current district control and how they would change by putting in different numbers....

Just for differnet scenarios:

Conservative surge:

Turnout = Con 36%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 20%, Nats. 2.5%

Labour Majority = 42 seats

Lib Dem surge:

Turnout = Lab 33%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 27%, Nats. 2.5%

Labour Majority = 72 seats

Labour vote Slump:

Turnout = Con 37%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 24%, Nats. 2.5%

Hung Parliament, Labour short 26 seats but still largest party.

Conservatives get 40%:

Turnout = Con 40%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 20%, Nats. 2.5%

Hung Parliament, Labour short by 35 seats but still the largest party.

Welcome to the world of First-past-the-post electoral laws folks!!!

Still, there is no electoral college in Britain so Labor is likely to triumph even with the McNader factor of Charles Kennedy.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/swingometer/html/labcon.stm

1. The Conservatives and the Lib Dems have no ideological connection on any of the major issues in UK politics - any coalition in the Commons between the two would seem impossible. Labour has tacked hard enough to the right so as to become almost identical to the Tories on issues such as the war, crime, asylum etc. The Lib Dems are left holding the left/liberal line, completely alien to the Tories, on all these issues - their natural constuency for any kind of parlimentiary coalition would be left-leaning Labour rebels, not conservatives. The idea of them allying with the Tories on any issue of substance would be akin to a new political party somewhere to the left of the Democrats appearing in Congress - then assuming that the Rebublicans would seek to ally with them on major ideological issues. Ain't gonna happen.

And that's not even looking at the major red meat Tory issues like Europe (the single reason why the party is a shadow of its former self) or public spending.

2. The second reason is that the Lib Dems are tactically useless. They have insipid leadership and very little political acumen - they quite simply don't have the stomach for the kind oif fight that would seriously elevate them into being a second party. It's a pity - their previous leader PAddy Ashdown might well have been up to seizing the kind of opportunities that the current situation offers but the present leader, Charles Kennedy doesn't the will or ability - simple as that. Think about it - they have in front of them the kind of political opportunity that only comes once in a political lifetime. There's massive and serious public dissaffection with both the ruling party and the principal party of opposition - with some smart campaigning and some balls, this must be an opportunity for the taking and yet... the Lib Dems still can't make it over a projected 60 seats. I'm sorry but if you're sitting in pole position, staking out popular/populist claims on eveything from Iraq to Europe that the other parties have swung right on then  - and you still can't make that kind of opportunity work for you, you don't deserve to do well.

Now, best case scenerio would be for the Liberal Democrats to actually win, but that doesn't seem even remotely possible.

first the polls, come on buddy, it's within the MoE. Labor is still in the driving seat, and unlike US polls, these kindsof polls are much less revealing, since Blair is elected based on the number of MP's elected, so you really need to look at the numbers for the swing seats, and not the overall temperature.

Rooting for the LibDems is like rooting for, well, Arizona Cardinals to win the SB 3 times in a row. It aint EVER going to happen, EVER. The british simply dont take them seriously at the national level.

hung parliament, wit hthe LibDems forming a coalition. sure it could happen, i very much doubt it will, but if it's THAT close, there is NO WAY IN HELL that the LibDems would form a coalition with the Conservatives, that would be like the Greens here helping out the republicans. No, they would put Labour back in power and the government wouldnt last a year. Because there is no way either the Cons or Laboour would EVER agree to election reform leading to proportional representation.

So a fun post, and bashing the Dem consulatants is always good stuff, but for the rest of it, I hope folks who read this dont take it all that seriously.

In the European Parliament, it is allied with other center right parties, such as UDF (France), FDP (Germany), ...

http://eld.europarl.eu.int/content/default.asp?PageID=32

I certainly disagree with Blair's foreign policy, but the political life in England would have to have become really different for a liberal populist Democrat to prefer the Liberal Democrats to the Labour Party (can somebody from England tell us more on that).