Sanders path cleared to Senate in VT (D's path to majority less clear)

by Jerome Armstrong, Sat Apr 30, 2005 at 05:06:33 PM EST

Vermont Gov. Jim Douglas (R) today announced he is not running to replace retiring Sen. Jim Jeffords in the open-seat 2006 Senate race.

So the good man Bernie is in. Well, almost. The GOP is going to put up a gazzilionaire to slime the state with an attack first. But this is a third-tier race, Bernie favored.

Right now, it looks like the first-tier races in '06 are in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. If I had to choose a route to the Dems retaking the Senate, it'd be to keep MN, takeaway PA & RI, and keep up the streak in Montana, ousting Burns. That's three, only half-way. The rest would be a guess, but 6 other seats are likely the obvious for DSCC targets.

Someone needs to muddy up the Republican Allen in Virginia, and it's doubtful that it will be Mark Warner; Tennessee is open, and the Dems need a Dem Gov Bredesen-like candidate to step up; and it seems like the Texas seat will at somepoint become open.

In Missouri, Ohio and Arizona, Talent, DeWine, and Kyl are not the strongest of Republicans, but there's not an obvious Democratic candidate yet running.

Those are six tilt-red states, where a national swing, and a strong Democratic candidate could win, but it's a long way from happening.

Update: David Sirota adds that Brian Dubie (R) is letting it be known he is seriously considering the race. According to PoliticsVT -- Dubie sounded very much like a candidate; and the deal-making is well under way. With Sanders out of the House, and there being a likely Democratic replacement, it'd mean (without any other notable changes in '06) that all of the 435 representatives would be either Democratic or Republican (no indy or 3rd party reps)-- the trivia question is how long since that's been the case?




Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

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All the Senate is belong to us (none / 0)

The winds are blowing away from the GOP, though not to us yet.
by Matt Stoller on Sat Apr 30, 2005 at 05:59:19 PM EST

We need to win in (none / 0)

Missouri.  So far, only State Senator, Chuck Graham, has announced his candidacy.  He is a very interesting candidate though.  He was paralized from the waste down when he was 15, and has been a symbolic leader in the fight for stem cell research.  Meanwhile, Jim Talent(less) has been on the opposite side of the issue, being one of the staunchest opponents of stem cells.  If Graham were the nominee, he could help generate national attention for stem cells, one of the few winning cultural issues for democrats.  Although Talent has a large war chest, I believe Graham could make it a tight race.
John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for a century.
by jkfp2004 on Sat Apr 30, 2005 at 06:23:11 PM EST

Re: We need to win in (none / 0)

good speaker, too.  He gave my commencement at college
"You say the world has lost it's love I say embrace what it's made of" -Dar Williams
by Valatan on Sat Apr 30, 2005 at 10:47:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Vermont (none / 0)

Vermonters don't seem to look very highly upon people trying to buy Senate seats -- witness Pat Leahy's 1998 re-election, in which a Vermont farmer named Fred Tuttle defeated a millionaire Republican from Massachusetts in the primary, and then endorsed Leahy.
by johnny longtorso on Sat Apr 30, 2005 at 06:35:40 PM EST

that was a hilarious "race" (none / 0)

Tuttle cleaned up in the debate when the rich city boy from Massachusetts literally didn't know how many teats were on a cow. Still, the qualms were more about the carpetbagging than the seat-for-sale thing.
by morinao on Sun May 01, 2005 at 09:09:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

NV (none / 0)

Right now, its looking like Ensign will get a free pass, because there is no one to take him on. Reid has long had the support of the Ensign family (a prominent gaming family) and has forged a good working relationship with Ensign since he won the seat in 00. Without Reid's support, no NV dem is going to get in the race.

The DSCC has by all accounts written this one off.

Here's where the netroots can make a difference, I think. Make Ensign vulnerable.

He's got an image in the state as a moderate, pro-gaming Mormon who is our guy on the inside with respect to Yucca, but he's in fact a "Christian" who lives in the "Fellowship" house in DC, supports Frist on the fillibuster and does little to help the state.

And the state GOP is actually weak, divided between the "anti-gay marriage" folks, the "anti-tax" folks and the mainstream, moderates.

With Reid being the most powerful Senator in NV history, Ensign gets almost no ink.

So my point is that some prolonged coverage in the blogs of Ensign -- and how he is vulnerable -- might get some folks thinking about a challenge.

by desmoulins on Sat Apr 30, 2005 at 06:51:38 PM EST

Candidates (none / 0)

Agreed on Kyl and Talent. Poll show both are weak. In MO, Claire McCaskill, who lost the Gov's race last fall, is considering running against NoTalent, b/c of those polls showing his weakness. In AZ, the candidate is likely to be state Dem chairman Jim Pederson. From what I've heard, he is well-spoken, rich, and smart. He made a smart move last week, praising John McCain "Independence" on the filibsuter, while slamming Kyl on that issue. If we get a Dem tilt and some effort, both can win.
by jj32 on Sat Apr 30, 2005 at 06:58:14 PM EST

Senate '06 (none / 0)

We are not going to win the Senate in '06.  We have a far better chance of retaking the House.  But I think we have a decent shot at gaining two or three seats.  The focus should be on holding Minnesota, and Maryland, and winning Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.  Pennsylvania, because Santorum is visible target and too far right for the state.  Rhode Island, because it's an overwhelming Democratic state.  Beyond that, it gets tough.  Montana is a plausible shot.  Burns might be ready to be taken out.  Missouri could be another if McCaskill or another big name runs.  I don't see us taking the open Tennessee seat, and I don't think we have much chance in places like Ohio, Arizona and Virginia.

Plus we have other seats to hold.  The two Nelsons, although Osborne running for governor makes Ben's task a lot easier.  Conrad could be vulnerable, but only if the governor runs.  Another one to keep an eye on is New Jersey if, as expected, Corzine is elected governor.  His replacement, be it Menendez or Pallone, will probably have to run against Tom Kean, Jr.  And as we all know from presidential politics, being the son of a former elected official is a big leg up.

So, on balance, I'd be happy with a gain of two seats.  We can then focus on retaking the senate in '08, when the Republicans will have a lot more vulnerable seats up.

by Paleo on Sat Apr 30, 2005 at 07:32:54 PM EST

Re: Senate '06 (none / 0)

I agree totally. A net gain of two seats for us in the Senate would be about our best possible outcome.

AZ and MO are pipe dreams. We've got no chance whatsoever there.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Mon May 02, 2005 at 01:07:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Rhode Island (3.00 / 1)

I would love to get the Rhode Island seat. The problem is that the Democrats wouldn't really improve if they get a Dem in RI, because Chaffee votes with us on most close votes anyway. Actually, it might be bad because then the 10th Republican on the comitees Chafee is in would always vote GOP and we would never be able to get the help of someone like Chafee. So getting Chafee out is only useful if we get a majority. If not, it could actually prove hurtful.
by FrenchSocialist on Sat Apr 30, 2005 at 07:40:18 PM EST

We need to hold Florida too... (none / 0)

Bill Nelson will probably be opposed by either Tom Gallagher or Charlie Crist.  Nelson is a strong campaigner, but this is no "gimme".
by GreginFL on Sat Apr 30, 2005 at 09:39:12 PM EST

Re: We need to hold Florida too... (none / 0)

I thought they were both running for governor.
by johnny longtorso on Sat Apr 30, 2005 at 10:36:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We need to hold Florida too... (none / 0)

There are two big 2006 elections in Florida, Governor to replace Jeb! who is term-limited, and Senator (with hope that Bill Nelson can hold).

Gallagher and Crist, because they are Cabinet officers, have statewide election experience before, and so are on the short list for both.  Crist will run for anything (and has).

Toni Jennings, currently the Lt. Governor, would be a strong contender for the Republican nominee for Governor.

Another possiblity for Senate is Katherine Harris, currently a House member from SW Florida, who obviously has broad name recognition.

Other names thrown out for Senate on the R side are State Senator Daniel Webster, and Representatives Mark Foley and Dave Weldon.

Cheers,

by GreginFL on Sun May 01, 2005 at 03:51:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

fwiw (none / 0)

Here's the winger reaction.  I'd agree that Dole isn't too much of a sharpie.  It's really supposed to be an easy cycle for the R's though, because in '00, the D's took away 5 (or was it 6) seats. It's '08 that spells bigger problems for Republican in the Senate.
by Jerome Armstrong on Sat Apr 30, 2005 at 11:53:43 PM EST

Re: fwiw (none / 0)

I believe the dems picked up 4 seats in the 2000 election.
by Hannula on Sun May 01, 2005 at 11:35:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: fwiw (none / 0)

2006 could be a decent year when you look at what happened in 1994.  In 1994 we lost 9 seats going from 57 Democrats to 48 Democrats and then you have to figure in Campbell and Shelby switched from Democrat to Republican lower us to 46.  So 94 was a net lose of 11 seats.  

In 2000 we did gain 5 electorally and 1 more with Jeffords switch.

 

Councilman Bill Painter
by Painter2004 on Sun May 01, 2005 at 01:35:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: fwiw (none / 0)

This is the same Senate cycle as both of those years.

The gains in 2000 were many of the same seats that were lost in 1994. The seats went Republican once and then went right back.

by wayward on Mon May 02, 2005 at 09:00:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Incidentally (none / 0)

I believe the answer to your question would technically be 1991, before Mr. Sanders was sworn into office.
by pwj on Sun May 01, 2005 at 12:00:29 AM EST

Barbara Radnofsky (none / 0)

FYI, Barbara Radnofsky, a lawyer from Houston, has announced her candidacy for the US Senate seat in Texas in 2006
by v2aggie2 on Sun May 01, 2005 at 12:52:22 AM EST

bring on Dubie (none / 0)

from the Burlington Free Press:

"Dubie has described himself as a "George Bush fighter-pilot Republican." He opposes abortion and disapproves of Vermont's civil-unions law, two hot-button political issues."

hilarious. brilliant idea, tying yourself to Bush when he failed to break 40% in Vermont.

by johnny longtorso on Sun May 01, 2005 at 10:31:22 AM EST

Re: bring on Dubie (none / 0)

I don't know. He may get support from Vermont's stoner population who just want to vote for a man named "Dubie".
by wayward on Mon May 02, 2005 at 09:02:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

one reason to be hopeful (none / 0)

about taking back the Senate:

We have Chuck Schumer leading our efforts.

They have Elizabeth Dole.

by tparty on Sun May 01, 2005 at 11:11:01 AM EST

Why Not? (none / 0)

Republicans have enough candidates who could be vulnerable to the right candidate. The real problem is the "we can't win" attitude that discourages strong state legislators from considering a run either for the House or the Senate. If that attitude continues, it is certain that Democrats will not take the Senate or House next year.
by freelunch on Sun May 01, 2005 at 04:21:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: one reason to be hopeful (none / 0)

I think we'll gain seats, but we won't take back the Senate. I believe this cycle is already the most blue of the three.

I think we have better odds in 2008.

by wayward on Mon May 02, 2005 at 08:56:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: one reason to be hopeful (none / 0)

Yea, the '08 cycle is super red on defense. It was already that way before, and '02 made it even moreso.
by Jerome Armstrong on Tue May 03, 2005 at 01:10:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why do you want a Bredesen like candidate? (none / 0)

Do you want to get rid of medicaid?
by noalternative on Sun May 01, 2005 at 11:35:41 AM EST

Re: Why do you want a Bredesen like candidate? (none / 0)

No, he wants to win.  Maybe it's just me, but I'm sick of losing.
John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for a century.
by jkfp2004 on Sun May 01, 2005 at 12:50:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why do you want a Bredesen like candidate? (none / 0)

Do you really think it would come up for a vote with a D majority?
by Jerome Armstrong on Sun May 01, 2005 at 05:35:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why do you want a Bredesen like candidate? (none / 0)

With HMO ceo's like Bredesen, yep!  REmember National Health Insurance lost with a Democratic majority in both houses.
by noalternative on Sun May 01, 2005 at 11:38:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

1988? (none / 0)

I believe that Sanders was elected in 1990 and before then there were no Independents in the House.
by LoganFerree on Sun May 01, 2005 at 01:36:58 PM EST

The last time... (none / 0)

The last time there was no independent in the House was the 101st Congress under Reagan in 1981 to 1983.
by sharris0512 on Sun May 01, 2005 at 03:09:17 PM EST

Could Bernie hurt us in other races? (none / 0)

How would the Democratic Party look in other states when they dont field a challenger in the Sanders Senate race. I have a feeling the Republicans will have a field day and succeed in attaching "socialist" to the Democratic Party. This could hurt us in other races. Just like we're gonna use DeLay against every Republican running, they may use Sanders against every Democrat and paint a picture that the Democratic party is the party of socialism, it remains to be seen whether other states will pay any mind to the impending GOP attacks.. It is worth watching though.
by falcon4e on Sun May 01, 2005 at 08:23:30 PM EST

Re: Could Bernie hurt us in other races? (none / 0)

if Hillary running in 2000 didn't hurt us, Bernie won't either.
by johnny longtorso on Sun May 01, 2005 at 08:34:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Could Bernie hurt us in other races? (none / 0)

Hope not, but you know the GOP. They'll definitely try to make it an issue.
by falcon4e on Sun May 01, 2005 at 08:46:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

a very viable candidate for Bernie's seat (none / 0)

We of course need to keep that seat, and I am excited about the soon to be announced entrance of State Senator Matt Dunne for that seat. Matt is young, highly intelligent, politically knowledgeable, and has a great reputation in Montpelier, as well as with the Dean supporters in state (Matt was a strong player in the Dean run).

I'm not sure how to best aid Matt's efforts via the web, and I'd appreciate any and all advice or questions regarding this outstanding young man. We not only want to keep the seat, we want someone in that seat that will help lead this country back from the abyss.

by mithrandir on Sun May 01, 2005 at 08:59:14 PM EST

Here's Why Douglas didn't run (none / 0)

http://vtpolitics.blogspot.com/
No Wonder
A little birdie friend of ours from DC dropped me these two sections of a poll done by the RSCC. No wonder Jimmy Doug-always-less loves being Governor.

Douglas
--------------All--Men--Women--North--South
Favorable----49---53----46-----51-----48
Unfavorable--44---42----47-----43-----44
No Opinion---4----3------6-----4-------4
Don’t Recg---2----3------1-----2-------3

If the election to replace retiring US Senator Jim Jeffords were held today who would you vote for: Independent Congressman Bernie Sanders or Republican Governor Jim Douglas (Alternate names)

-----------All--Men--Women--North--South
Sanders----57---55----59-----58-----57
Douglas----39---43----36-----39-----39
No Answer---3----3-----4------3------3

The poll was done by Public Opinion Strategies, a huge polling firm and one of the best the Republicans have. It also happens to be the firm Jimmy Doug-always-less used during his 04 Gov race. Wonder if he gained any "value" from the poll and if it will show up on his state expenditure reports?

Interestingly, there has been two other polls done in VT recently. One done by WGOP, er I mean WCAX, and another that looks reputable but put in an email to supporters by VTGOP. That is a lot of off-year polling!
http://vtpolitics.blogspot.com/

by vtpolitics on Sat May 21, 2005 at 10:24:41 PM EST


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