A Brutal Morning of Polling Coverage for Governor Schwarzenegger

This mornings news brings more rain for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's parade. Forty drops worth, in the "Approve" column. That's right; the untouchable movie-star governor with an adoring public and possible Constituion-altering presidential aspirations has seen his poll numbers drop precipitously, to forty per cent. That is a twenty point walloping since the year begins.
MercuryNews.com | 04/28/2005 | Support falling for governor, poll finds: "What once seemed unthinkable has now become a reality: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's approval ratings have plummeted to Gray Davis levels, and the cornerstone of his ``Year for Reform'' agenda is on shaky ground.

In 90 days, Schwarzenegger's popularity has tumbled 20 points and potential voters are now voicing doubt about the state spending restrictions the Republican governor wants them to approve in a special election this fall.

Forty percent of Californians believe that Schwarzenegger is doing a good job and half say he's faring poorly, according to the non-partisan survey by the Public Policy Institute of California released today.

The numbers suggest that the governor's attempt to get back on the offense by jettisoning his contentious pension-overhaul plan so he could focus on other proposals has so far failed. Now some Republican strategists are suggesting that Schwarzenegger consider abandoning the special election.

``When the governor's advisers laid out the special election based on reform, they were counting on a very popular governor to carry a load of fairly complicated ballot measures across the finish line,'' said Republican strategist Dan Schnur. ``In this context, it may be hard for him to pull off an initiative load this fall.''

But there are few indications that the governor plans to back down. Wednesday, Schwarzenegger's political advisers met with top Republican lawmakers to discuss campaign strategy. Margita Thompson, the governor's press secretary, said the governor's approval ratings and support will rise once they begin a more aggressive campaign.

``The governor still believes that we need change and we need it as soon as we can,'' she said."

It seems that voters agree that a change may be in order. I don't think it is a change that Arnold would like, however. The governor's aides may be on the receiving end of a "change" themselves. Hopefully they do a better job convincing the Governor of their worth than he is of convincing the voters of his.

Polls - Schwarzenegger's rating drops sharply - sacbee.com: "Schwarzenegger aides dismissed the results as little more than a temporary slide after months of attacks from public employee labor unions and other critics of his policies.

But while Republican voters are still solidly behind Schwarzenegger, pollster Mark Baldassare said the numbers make it clear Democrats and independent voters don't like him as much as they once did.

'Since January, the governor has been less able to communicate effectively with the people, particularly outside of his party, that he's representing their interests,' Baldassare said. 'People on the other side have been more effective in communicating that he's not.

'Whether it's a temporary drop or a trend, it's too early to say. I think the next few months are going to be crucial.'"

The next months will be crucial, and don't expect any of the Governor's adversaries to back down. In fact, with candidates joining the primary ballot to run against him, the criticism will escalate.
After Reneging on His Promise to Schools, Schwarzenegger's Marks Slip: "'People were giving Schwarzenegger the benefit of the doubt, even though they disagreed with him on education. Now, education is turning out to be a leading indicator of how they feel about his style of leadership.'

There's also certainly a direct correlation between Schwarzenegger's plummeting popularity and the $5 million in TV attack ads run against him by the California Teachers Assn. and its education allies. The spots have pummeled Schwarzenegger for breaking his word to schools. Basically, he borrowed $2 billion from the school kitty to finance other state expenses and now isn't repaying it, as promised.

The governor is proposing an extra $2.9 billion for schools, but that's $2 billion short of what they're owed — based on the deal he cut with them.

'I sat at a table with the governor and his finance people and representatives of the education coalition, and we reached an agreement,' says Carla Nino of Woodland Hills, president of the state PTA. 'I heard him say he'd pay it back this year. I believed him. He was a new governor. You have to give people the benefit of their word. Which is why we're so upset now.

'I have to tell you, we feel like we were suckered.'

PTA members have been dogging Schwarzenegger all over California, protesting his policies. So have teachers, nurses, firefighters and cops, specifically targeting his recently scuttled initiative to end traditional pension plans for new public employees. This also surely has damaged the governor."

The PTAs and Unions aren't alone in their bad feelings for the Governor's work in the field of education:
L.A. Daily News - News: "A majority of adults, 51 percent, said they disapprove of his handling of K-12 education, but the poll also found that 64 percent agree with Schwarzenegger that teachers should be paid according to how well their students perform -- known as merit pay.

Among likely voters, 55 percent support his plan to lengthen the time needed for teachers to achieve the tenured status that makes it difficult to fire them."

Certainly,that'ss is a mixed bag. The question now is can the Governor's initiatives on tenure and merit pay penetrate through all of the other clouds on his governership.
MercuryNews.com | 04/28/2005 | Schools' low marks: "Pessimism about California education is particularly acute in the Bay Area, which has experienced the state takeover of the Oakland Unified School District, declining enrollment and school closings from San Jose to San Francisco in recent years.

Bay Area residents were more likely than adults surveyed in other parts of the state to say that the quality of education in public school is a big problem. Statewide, 82 percent of respondents said the quality of education is at least somewhat of a problem. And when asked if schools have gotten better or worse in the past two years, 37 percent of Bay Area residents said conditions had gotten worse, compared with 31 percent of adults statewide.

``Bay Area residents generally have high incomes, high education levels, and are pretty aware of the disparities between low-income and high-income areas in terms of school performance,'' said Mark Baldassare, the public policy institute statewide survey director. ``They're very pessimistic about the state of the state lately, and they also have very high expectations that they don't feel are being addressed.''"

The popular opinion of the governor is sure to persist and could be driven lower as the pressure is kept on Schwarzenegger by the coalition built to stand up to his so-called "Year of Reforms."
San Bernardino County Sun - News: "Teachers, firefighters, clerical workers and nurses, angered by what they call Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's broken promises, lined the sides of Cherry Avenue to protest Wednesday morning.

The protesters were largely restricted to the road outside California Steel Industries, where Schwarzenegger appeared at an Ask Arnold Town Hall question-and-answer session.

Redlands Professional Firefighters President Dan Crow stood by the side of the road with other firefighters and said he feels betrayed by Schwarzenegger's overhaul of the state pension system.

'I have no reason to trust him,' Crow said.

Crow gestured to the crowd of more than 50 protesters, many of whom were from Fontana and surrounding cities, and said, 'All these people, all public employees are going to be hurt by this.'

Public schoolteachers waved signs imploring Schwarzenegger to uphold the terms of Proposition 98, an initiative guaranteeing a minimum amount of funding each year from the state's general fund.

'I want to send the message that we need to protect funding for our schools,' said John Davis, vice president of the Corona-Norco Teachers Association. 'There was a deal made and he went back on his word.'"

The governor is in trouble, and sinking. The ratcheting up of pressure by California's most loved and respected "special interests" will only serve to drive his numbers closer to their floor. He is still strong within his party, but the drastic drop in his approval among Democrats and independent voters doesn't bode well for 2006.

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Yeah, he's in trouble (none / 0)

I don't know if this means we will beat him (looks like Phil Angelides is the top guy to challenge him), but it definitely looks like we have a shot.
by Geotpf on Thu Apr 28, 2005 at 11:43:22 AM EST

Re: Yeah, he's in trouble (none / 0)

It's so unbelievably sad that the two best candidates to run against him are a guy who voted for him and a guy who campaigned with him.

Just so sad...

by craverguy on Thu Apr 28, 2005 at 11:57:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Now, now (none / 0)

We've got two great candidates:

Phil Angelides

Steve Westley.

Neither one is perfect, but neither one is Gray Davis or The Ahnold. They are both a tremendous improvement over Cruz Bustamonte.

by Gary Boatwright on Thu Apr 28, 2005 at 01:54:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Now, now (none / 0)

Don't forget Lockyer.  He's a solid, well known candidate who's getting some ink these days for a bill to place serial numbers on bullets and is the one who has been chasing energy refunds in the courts.

Unfortunately he said he voted for Arnold in Part Two of the Recall Ballot.  That was probably one of the worst post-recall panders to the then-popular new Governor.  Westly campaigned with Schwarzenegger on ballot measures.

I hope that niether fact matters in the end.  Honestly, outside of a Democratic primary it could be a boon to have at least tried to work with Arnold when he came to town.  It's a story the voters can identify with,

"I thought Governor Schwarzenegger was going to be different.  He promised to change Sacramento for the betterment of all Californians.  I wanted to go along with it, but over time the man broke promises and showed that the only special interests he wanted to sweep out were the nurses, police officers, firefighters and teachers who have dedicated their whole lives - not just a few years - to public service; and not with the fame and glory of being the Governor."

Like a lot of Californians, Westly and Lockyer wanted to believe, but were let down when they found out that the Governor's promises were just more lines from a fictional script.

by jdthompson on Thu Apr 28, 2005 at 02:14:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Now, now (none / 0)

Lockyer is also an excellent candidate. My take is that Angelides has the support of the Democratic party locked up and Westley has a chance by running as the independent maverick.

I didn't have a chance to interview Lockyer at the California Convention, so I'm not that familiar with his differences with Angelides and Westley. If you have some background information on Lockyer, I'd love to see a diary about his stand on different issues and his campaign strategy.

Angelides supporters have been trying early to attack Westley for his support of Prop 57 & 58, which passed with 60% approval and provided a temporary band-aid for California's budget crisis. One of them was supposed to set up a rainy day fund, which probably isn't getting filled up real quick.

One fact frequently overlooked about The Ahnold's recall victory is that the Democratic party was not able to field it's strongest candidates. They were stuck with a flawed candidate in the person of Gray Davis. Cruz stepped forward, but was just as flawed and a terrible campaigner.

I'm looking forward to a spirited primary, hopefully a good series of debates and a monumental roast for The Porkinator in the election.

by Gary Boatwright on Thu Apr 28, 2005 at 02:50:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

BREAKING NEWS!!! Lockyer is OUT!!! (none / 0)

Attorney General Bill Lockyer is NOT going to run against the Governor he voted for, and will instead jump into the race to replace Treasurer Phil Angelides, who IS running against Arnold.
Attorney General Bill Lockyer abandoned plans to run for governor next year and will instead run for state treasurer, a source close to Lockyer told The Associated Press on Thursday.

Lockyer, who told reporters as recently as last month that he planned to run for the Democratic nomination to take on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, was expected to announce his new plans Thursday afternoon.

A longtime officeholder and fixture in state Democratic Party politics, Lockyer has amassed about $11 million for his next campaign. Term limits will force him to step down as attorney general in 2006.

State Treasurer Phil Angelides is the only major Democratic candidate to formally announce plans to run for governor next year. Controller Steve Westly formed an exploratory committee and is widely expected to run.

Lockyer's surprise decision transforms the field of Democrats vying to succeed Angelides in 2006. They include Sen. Joe Dunn, D-Garden Grove; John Chiang, a member of the state Board of Equalization; and Assembly Majority Leader Dario Frommer, D-Glendale.

Lockyer instantly becomes the heavyweight in the Treasurer's race, probably followed by Chiang with the two legislators somewhere behind.

by jdthompson on Thu Apr 28, 2005 at 02:56:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING NEWS!!! Lockyer is OUT!!! (none / 0)

Very interesting. I'd say Lockyer is a lock for Treasurer and the Governor's race is essentially a two man race between Westley and Angelides. Westley may also decide to drop out, but I doubt it.

Just my impression, but I got the feeling that Westley may be running for Governor to increase his name recognition, even if he doesn't win. Anybody besides Angelides is a very long shot to win the Democratic primary. It would be extraordinary for any of the other candidates to get enough name recognition to beat Angelides.

Westley could very well be looking to a future run for Governor after Angelides terms out. I hope he stays in just to improve the quality of the primary. He's very quick witted, knowledgeable and eloquent. If nothing else, he would get Angelides tuned up for the general election.

by Gary Boatwright on Thu Apr 28, 2005 at 03:31:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: BREAKING NEWS!!! Lockyer is OUT!!! (none / 0)

KQED's Capitol Notes blog posts in "Domino Effect":
First came the news around midday that Attorney General Bill Lockyer has decided not to run for governor in 2006, but instead will seek the office of Treasurer.

Now, an e-mail arrives from state Senator Joe Dunn (D-Santa Ana) saying he's changed his mind on running for Treasurer. Dunn says he and Lockyer have "worked too hard together" on past issues to now be adversaries.

Dunn, you may remember, appeared to be angling for Attorney General... that is, until Jerry Brown entered that race.

Who's next?

Who, indeed?
by jdthompson on Thu Apr 28, 2005 at 05:27:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Email from Angelides (none / 0)

This is a power play to get Westley and whoever else is left to drop out.

STATEMENT FROM CALIFORNIA STATE TREASURER PHIL ANGELIDES:

SACRAMENTO, CA - State Treasurer Phil Angelides today issued the
following statement:

"I have tremendous respect for my friend Bill Lockyer and his accomplished career in public service.  Throughout his legislative career and his service as Attorney General, Bill has a long history of fighting for Democratic ideals -- protecting the environment, civil rights, consumers, and a woman's right to choose.

"With Attorney General Lockyer's decision today, I now hope to unify the Democratic Party behind my candidacy so that we can wage a winning
campaign that puts California back to work for working people and builds a better future for our children.

"We will be a stronger California if we solve our budget problems now instead of leaving our children to pay our debts.  We will be a stronger
California if we have first class schools and if more of our young people, not fewer, can go to college.  We will be a stronger California
if working families and their children can see a doctor when they are sick.  And we will be a stronger California if we have a Governor who
stands up for our families and our children, not just the well-heeled and the well connected.

"That is the kind of Governor I will be."

Angelides also announced that Rep. Joe Baca, Rep. Dennis Cardoza, Rep. Sam Farr, Rep. Barbara Lee, Rep. Mike Thompson, State Senator Wes Chesbro, and Assemblyman Joe Baca, Jr. today joined Angelides 2006 co-chairs Sen. Barbara Boxer, House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, and hundreds of elected officials across the state in endorsing his candidacy for Governor (see attached endorsement list).

Pretty damned effective power play too. Angelides endorsement list is huge. Westley has a big decision to make whether or not to be a maverick challenger or join the unity day celebration.

by Gary Boatwright on Thu Apr 28, 2005 at 06:52:52 PM EST


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