I also don't know how the national African-American community would view him, but I tend to think the national vote might follow New York, where he would be lucky to get one vote.

But #3, South Carolina?  Um, no.  And if Alabama gets thier way-HAHAHAHA.

Frist is going to win the nomination and then lose the general election to Feingold.

Fellow GOPers will drag out all that kerik corruption and hang it around his neck.

Not to mention the fact that his stand on social issues will kill him. McCain won NH in 2000-so what? He got beat almost everywhere else. If Giuliani did win NH, he would be slaughtered in SC and most of the other states too.

Oh, and if McCain runs as well in 2008, he and Giuliani will split the "relatively sane Republican" vote in NH.

Frist vs. Pat Buchanan vs. Rudy Giuliani vs. Gary Bauer vs. Rice vs. McCain whatever other wierdos show up (Santorum? Brownback? Ahnuld? Lieberman?)

Of course, the freepi are salivating over the Hillary vs everyone else contest in which they get to relive all their greatest moments of Clinton-bashing. It's going to be ugly, nasty, and expensive.

I can't imagine him ever surviving the Republican primaries in the South, either.  Conservatives will beat him like a drum on gays and abortion.

Republicans will not support him. Look at McCain. He was much more conservative on GOP bread-and-butter issues and was a shoe-in to crush Gore, but primary voters had no taste for him. The temptation of getting a guaranteed trip to the White House doesn't sway primary voters as much as would be necessary for Guiliani to get the nod.

Take the average primary voter in "low intensity primary states". I say Iowa and NH prolly get a more representative mix of the population. At later primaries, the proportion of party faithful will go up, and Guiliani will get crushed.

He's pro-gays, pro-choice, and anti-guns. Probably 20% of country votes single-issue on one of those 3 issues. Primary voters are nearly a majority of these voters, and they will never vote for Guiliani.

Maybe he has other motives. Kinda like the Jesse Jackson/Al Sharpton model. Even though winning is a long shot at best, the act of running did alot for them in terms of prestige and credibility.

Isn't his name Rudolph?

Then he'll say there are two sides to the issue, and that he can certainly understand where the anti-choice people are coming from.

Then he'll say that although he understands the pro-choice viewpoint, that's not how he feels about it personally.

Then he'll say that after much prayer and thought, he's decided that abortion should be discouraged after all.

Eventually, he'll declare himself to be 'pro-life' and deny he's ever been anything else.

Week 1: Iowan Republicans seem like a mix of Bible thumpers and cranky populist/maverick types (after all, they put Pat Robertson on the map in 1988). Rudy finishes 4th behind McCain, Frist, Santorum.

Week 2: There are enough moderates and pragmatists in New Hampshire to give Rudy a boost, but mostly they loves them some McCain up there. Rudy finishes 2nd behind McCain.

Week 3: Let's assume Alabama gets their wish of moving up in the order. Alabama Republicans are well-known for their love of pro-choice cross-dressing Northeastern Catholics. Rudy finishes 6th behind Frist, Santorum, McCain, Haley Barbour, and George Allen.

Week 4: National media starts sticking fork in Rudy. Moderate South Carolinians stick finger in wind and decide they're better off trying to boost McCain's sagging chances. Rudy finishes 8th behind everyone above plus Gary Bauer and Strom Thurmond's corpse.

Week 5: Rudy returns to profiteering off the War on Terror.

So, Frist or Jeb are possibilities as the "elephant grabbing the tail candidates". They will be more about continuity than extending an "agenda" into the future. This will be seen positively by the Republican insiders that they are malleable to the "BushKampf" worldview.

Should military debacles or other foreign problems hit home before '08, there's always Chuck Hagel to talk to the economic, red-meat conservatives and distance himself from the nut-job unilateralist neo-cons.

And if economic and military problems arise before '08, the GOP will likely let any poor ol' sap run...figuring that he or she would lose badly to a challnger.

My own prediction is that most of the economic consequences of Bush and the GOP Congress won't hit until after '08...leaving us with President Frist or Hagel for a term before the bottom falls out and we wind up with Eliot Spizter turning corporate accountibility into a law and order issue in 2012.

Just as the last period of Democratic dominance began with the Governor of New York becoming President in rough economic times, I expect to see history repeat itself once more.

You of all people should know that the republican
party is a monarchy. Its McCain in 2008.

Even in my field, with my mathematical background,
I find that I am not one to really put weight
into statistics.

Everyone always wonders how the GOP pulls the
rabbit out of the hat..

Well.. if you're a junkie... you have to buy junk.
Its that simple.

the GOP will play the pundits against themselves
again. Thats my info.  

If the dems want to win, they will need unprecedented secrecy on their ticket selection
in 2008, and better still - announce, out of the
blue that they're dissolving the party and
renaming it and really blasting its own
members that still try to pull strings
(see... the "national security democrats" post..)
and aggressively pursue radical reform.

Or that 60% statistic that says the American
people want the Dems to stand up to the Bush
administration will NEVER turn into 60% of
the American people voting for the Dems.

Yep. Guilianis for all those people who
think they know everything. He set it up
for speakers fees, and a fake run.
New york - if you can make it there..
you can make it anywhere...

BAAAA

Rudy strikes me as a lazy and all the money he's making is likely to make him feel even more entitled than he has in the past. He'll have to "flipflop" to get grassroots people to support him, which will make him an easy target for his competition. The social issues tuff will not do well in the South. A New Yorkish personality doesn't wear well elsewhere, although it doesn't really effect me one way or the other.

McCain is bucking and weaving his way toward a Bush endorsement and I think he's the closest thing a moderate who has a chance in the GOP.

Rudy in drag

The RNC wants somebody malleable.  And Bush was their wet dream:  A guy who did EXACTLY what he was told, was rich enough to finance his own campaign, and had gobs of rich buddies.  (Oh, and of course the GOP/Media helped, too.)

George Allen fulfills most if not all of these requirements.  Rudy's too dangerously independent (by GOP standards), not to mention too "ethnic" for the highly-racist folk that make up the GOP's base nowadays.