Racial Self-Identification by Year of Birth 77-94 65-76 46-64 30-45 Pre-30 White 61 63 73 80 86 Black 15 13 12 9 7 Latino 17 17 10 7 4 Asian 4 5 3 3 2
Religious Self-Identification by Year of Birth All 77-94 65-76 46-64 31-45 Pre-30 Catholic 23 20 20 23 21 21 Other Xtn 53 42 43 55 61 70 Non Xtn 9 11 11 8 7 4 None 14 23 23 11 7 5
Ideological Self-Identification by Year of Birth
All 77-94 65-76 46-64 30-45 Pre-30
Lib 19 31 25 17 13 19
Con 38 30 33 42 47 35
Mod 36 34 39 36 33 39
Partisan Self-Identification by Year of Birth
All 77-94 65-76 46-64 30-45 Pre-30
Dem 37 39 40 31 40 47
Rep 34 28 31 40 34 35
Ind 28 31 28 28 26 16
Wow. Democrats have a large lead on partisan identification among the younger generations, and liberalism is actually slightly ahead of conservatism among so-called "Generation Y" (born 1977-1994). Here is a link to the census data on the size of each age group.Some will argue that this will change as people grow older. After all, everyone knows older people are more conservative, right? However, there are many reasons to doubt this. First, it could be argued that the main reason Democrats and liberals do so well among the younger generation are tied to other demographics, specifically race and religion. The two youngest generations are far less white and far less Christian than the older generations, and as one would except considering the voting and partisan self-identification patterns of those who are not white (Kerry won this group 72-28) and those who are not Christian (Kerry won this group 71-27), it is in no way surprising that a less white, less Christian group would also be less Republican. Thus, the Republican problem among the younger generations is actually a Republican problem among minorities and non-Christians.
Further, Reagan's second best age group in 1984 was 18-24 year olds, the tail end of the Baby Boomer generation. If the data above is to be believed, those people are still clearly voting Republican. By contrast, Clinton's best age group, both in 1992 and 1996, was also 18-24 year olds, and these people are still voting Democratic. Thus, it is entirely possible that people's voting patterns are a lot more stable throughout their lives than is commonly assumed.
Long-term demographics are clearly in favor of the current Democratic coalition. However, this data is so long term that there is simply no assurance that the two coalitions will have similar demographic patterns than they do today. However, and most importantly, no matter what happens, it appears that in the next fifteen to twenty-five years liberalism will begin to dramatically close the national ideological gap on conservatism. In fact, by the 2016 elections, the margin by be less than half it is today.
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