Democracy Corps Polling Memo

The latest Democracy Corps polling memo is out. Its findings are chilling:
This ought to be the Democrats' moment, as the president's Social Security proposal crashes against the wall of the public's deep doubts. Support for the president's proposal has fallen to 36 percent and perhaps even lower, depending on question wording. Worse for the president, 40 percent of voters strongly oppose his plan, rising to 63 percent among seniors. Congressional Democrats are now winning voters over 45 years by 12 points, according to the NPR survey, after faltering badly among aging voters just 4 months earlier. But Bush's plan is not that popular with younger voters who divide evenly on it.

So, we ask progressives to consider, why have the Republicans not crashed and burned? Why has the public not taken out their anger on the Congressional Republicans and the president? We think the answer lies with voters' deeper feelings about the Democrats who appear to lack direction, conviction, values, advocacy or a larger public purpose.

In the latest Democracy Corps poll, the public's esteem for Republicans, including the Republican Congress, moved even further above the Democrats, despite the crash of Bush's signature policy initiative and grave doubts about the wisdom of Iraq and Bush's economic policies. While gaining confidence from the assault on Bush's Social Security plan, Democrats should pause to think about why Republicans are not crashing and how that impacts the Social Security debate in the months ahead.

These observations are based on the latest Democracy Corps survey of 1,001 likely voters, conducted February 13-17, 2005. It also draws on the bi-partisan NPR survey and other public polls.

Two Americas - Uninterrupted

One explanation for the lack of price for failure is the polarized and divided politics that leaves the parties trapped at near parity, regardless of events. There is a remarkable degree of stability in the responses to partisan political actors, leaving the president without a honeymoon following the election, but also without a crash after the Social Security launch.

Success or failure of public policy or legislative initiatives no longer seems to affect the relative popularity of the two parties. We have entered an age where politcal affliation is determined almost entirely by pure theory and ideology rather than with a comparative engagement with how different government approaches impact reality. Yes, we must continue to demonstrate the damage Republican policy causes to our country, and to prevent the Republican legislative agenda from passing. However, we can no longer except either that our succes on those two fronts or improving our image on one or two issues will help us at the ballot box.



Display:


Its interesting that this issue (3.00 / 4)

is pushed so regularly by centrists like Carville and Greenberg--two former Clinton aids.  And as we all know, Clinton certainly did not help the image problem they are referring to.

For their analysis:

The simple truth is that Republicans are dogmatic ideologues and, in general, Democrats tend to be less so.  Democrats are less wedded to their ideology and more interested doing what works.  This state of affairs is clear to Americans and any attempt to fabricate the kind of ideological inflexibility the Republicans demonstrate is likely to be viewed as even more superficial.

What is becoming obvious is that the Republicans are overly wedded to their ideology and it has cost the country dearly, and is likely to continue to.  The key therefore is not to offer a different ideological alternative, the key is to offer what we really are: the party of anti-ideology, the party of what works.  We're scrambling around trying to find an ideology in a party that is focused on reality.  

It is my considered opinion that the solution, therefore is not really to sure up a failure of conviction--something I believe Clinton, Gore, and Kerry had plenty of--but rather to sure up a failure of confidence.  The Republicans simply convey far more confidence in their ideas than the Democrats--if for no other reason than they are not interested in any other reality than their own.

by descrates on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 06:34:27 PM EST

Re: Its interesting that this issue (none / 0)

Wow, that was a really great point.  Nice job.
http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Thu Mar 03, 2005 at 11:21:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Democracy Corps Polling... (3.00 / 1)

Democrats did not benefit from the Social Security debate for at least 2 reasons:

1 - Democrats did not spread the word abouot the philosophical difference between Democrats and Republicans: Republicans want each person to fend for himself while Democrats are concerned with helping those who can't help themselves

2 - The fight is not over. Don't kid yourself. It has barely begun. The public is sure there is more to come. Democrats must spread the reasons for their position

by PaulSiegel on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 06:48:05 PM EST

I read less into this (3.00 / 1)

I think there's a simpler explanation than "everyone's already accounted-for".

Quite simply, the Republicans have been avoiding this issue.  Sure, they've done a few townhall meetings, but by and large they've not been associated with privatization.  That plan is seen as the president's.

What this says is that Democrats need to do a better job spreading the love around.  We need to associate the GOP with this issue much more consistently.

by jonweasel on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 08:12:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I read less into this (none / 0)

I couldnt agree more.

Dems have been successful so far in defending social security, what we have adequately failed to do is attack the GOP.

When i read LTE's in my local paper for example, its mostly about there is no crisis, which is a great message to send out educating people, but i think it is time to heat up the debate and start attacking the GOP congressional delegation.

My local organizaition is now doing just that..
here
here
and here

by Pounder on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 11:12:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Many Republicans are getting free ride (none / 0)

Dems have been successful so far in defending social security, what we have adequately failed to do is attack the GOP.

Yes and of course part of the reason that has been difficult is that so many Republican office holders have been so good at speaking out of both sides of their mouths on this and because there is no detailed plan that we can hang around their neck.

Here in Vermont, for example our Republican Governor Jim Douglas went to Washington last week with the other governors and made a big point of saying that young people in Vermont support the President's plan for "personal accounts" as part of Social Security.   He just pulled that "fact" out of his you know what of course and I am very frustrated that our governor could make an announcement like that to the national press in Washington and not have anyone call him on it.  If he thinks that is true why is he not holding town hall meetings at UVM for example?  Or why don't the state democrats do something to show it is not true and to cram that statement down him and make him pay a price for it?

by Fred in Vermont on Thu Mar 03, 2005 at 07:45:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"No strong direction" (3.00 / 2)

If you go back to the previous Democracy Corp poll you find that 30% of respondents said "no strong direction" was the reason for having negative feelings about the Democratic party. Defeating Social Security reform, while a victory in and of itself, doesn't help define what we're for. Everything we seem to do is in reaction.

Reform and change are still the themes that arouse interest and motivated support.  We'll only succeed by proposing better, more popular reform. Policies and programs don't matter nearly as much as simply having a direction and goal. That's why I'm a Reform Democrat with a general outline of what we should be for.

by Steve in Sacto on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 07:04:39 PM EST

Re: "No strong direction" (none / 0)

Thsi is the Dem's big failing, along with the feeling that Dems can't be trusted on national Security.  The Dems don't need to come up with 10 new, detailed programs; they need to have a short statement of what we believe in like:

Encouraging education and removing obstacles to opportunity so people can achieve as much as they are able; safety nets to protect people from serious illness and other catastrophic events; a safe, healthy environment and a strong America respected abroad.  Push the idea that gov't exists to do the things we can't do alone, like provide for the common defense, undertake large  projects for the common welfare like the railrtoads, interstates and other infrastructure; regulate and mitigate the excesses of capitalism and guarantee liberty and justice for everyone regardless of class, color, race, religion etc.

Don't quibble over the details or promise a laundry list of programs; just push the broad themes.

by Mimikatz on Thu Mar 03, 2005 at 01:42:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Message testing on Social Security (none / 0)

I want to bring attention to page 13 of the memo, which shows a message test between "there is no crisis" and "there are some small problems, but Bush is exaggerating". It appears that "there are some small problems" is more of a winning message by about 5 points, which I am totally willing to believe.

This is my reason for wanting to run a "screwdriver versus the sledgehammer" ad, where democratic plans are compared to fixing a jungle gym with a screwdriver, while Republican plans are compared to smashing it with a sledgehammer.

by niq on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 07:20:23 PM EST

Damn! This is the reason for demonizing Dems! (3.00 / 2)

I've been trying to figure out when "Coulterism" would run out of steam. I even remember last year, when I still watched O'Really, Little Toxic Annie was a guest and O'Really tried to convince Toxic Anne that she was "better than that." I thought that eventually there would be a backlash against labeling other Americans as traitors for no reason.

It just kept getting worse. Now we've GOPers like Gibbons who make B-1 Bob look like peaceniks. O'Really is starting to sound more like Toxic Annie than she does herself. Hindrocket is actually calling a former President a traitor.

Has the media even so much as whispered any of this? The GOPers can say any repulsive thing they want to on talk radio or to an audience and the media ignores them like it never happened. The reason there will not be a backlash is because 60% of Americans have no idea how repulsive they are. The only ones who know are the ideologues on the right and the left.

How would the average independent voter, who doesn't listen to talk radio or watch Faux News, know about the disgusting things the GOPers and wingnuts are saying? They don't, therefore, no backlash.

The advantage is that by singing to the choir about the evils of Ted Kennedy and Michael Moore they give Bush ideological insullation from failure. No matter how bad Bush fails or what he does, he will never be as bad as Michael Moore. A I the only one that thought the case against Michael Moore was incredibly out of proportion to what was actually in his movie? It's all manufactured. The wingnuts eat it up, and become innoculated to the most catastrophic failure of policy or personal integrity.

They have taken the "home team" effect and magnified it with religious terminology. They have turned Democrats into the "other" that is held in contempt. No matter how bad your guy is, he is still a human being.

We haven't heard from Frank Luntz recently, but you know he's been polling how voters react to Coulter, Hannity and Scarborough. They also have their ratings to give them feedback. Between the two, they have figured out that calling Dems evil is a win/win. Their team gets pumped up and more willing to forgive errors. The opposing team becomes worse than the Oakland Raiders. The only people who know about it are in the stadium. The average joes outside the stadium don't have a clue what's going on, so they are not affected.

The Home Team Effect and Ideological Insullation from failure. Chomsky's Manufactured Consent probably fits in there somewhere as well. The demonizing has just begun folks. We haven't even started to see the bottom of the barrel.

by Gary Boatwright on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 07:27:10 PM EST

Re: Damn! This is the reason for demonizing Dems! (3.00 / 1)

If this seems like a stretch, consider how long Karl Rove observed the "Home Team" effect in High School and College Texas Football. From what I hear and read, those people are whacky about the home team down there.

Karl Rove and the Right Wing Noise Machine simply took the Home Team Effect national. You ridicule and demonize the visitors and the crowd goes wild. What would it take to get an Eagle fan to root for the Oakland Raiders in the Super Bowl? I don't even know anything about Philly team rivalries, but you get the idea.

by Gary Boatwright on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 07:44:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

DEMOCRATS STAND FOR NOTHING (3.00 / 1)

the democrats stand for nothing anymore, the republicans stand for deficits, war, democracy ,  anti-gay pro family and probably the eventual destruction of this country, but they have a message.
democrats are still looked  at as new deal tax and spend liberals  even though the facts don`t
support this. the republicans have brainwashed america and it`s going to take a real crisis for democrats to win back anythong at the  national level.
by JOEL1954 on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 07:28:30 PM EST

Re: DEMOCRATS STAND FOR NOTHING (none / 0)

Remember that it is a closely divided country.  The repubs make a lot of noise alright, but they still barely win nationally and in many states.  Lately they have lost some surprising govenorships.
by NG on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 07:46:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's not that they stand for nothing, (3.00 / 1)

it's that they don't take stands, or haven't done so effectively.

Think about it: do people criticize cops for not having an agenda beyond opposing crime?

Do people bash firefighters for not being proactive?

Is Bush considered weak because his Presidency is focused almost entirely on defending the homeland against terra?

The problem isn't that the Dems need to be going on the attack with their own agenda, though that might help -- Dems need to be clear about what they're defending, and to be strong in that defense.

They also need to be clear about where the attack is coming from. There is a Reep campaign underway to dismantle the safety net! Isn't opposing that an agenda? Criminals are looting the Treasury! Isn't stopping that a positive platform?

The Dems need better message. And they need to stop negotiating with the terrorists in the White House.

Yeah, I'm cynical.
by catastrophile on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 08:02:56 PM EST

Re: It's not that they stand for nothing, (none / 0)

Exactly.  It's not a question of position or policy.  It's a matter of picking three strong, clear, SHORT messages and having all the DNC talking heads hammer the crap out of them, week in and week out.
by kenfair on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 10:36:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

BINGO! (3.00 / 1)

Supah 3s for all of the first three posters above. The Democratic party is playing every single game on the schedule on Repug home turf.

I personally trace the entire vile neocon stranglehold on this nation at the current time directly to the Repug reaction to Roe v. Wade. The Repugs used it as springboard to found a base. Had they read polls, they probably would have quit hammering away on the issue a long time ago. Even today, a significant majority favor abortion being legal under current conditions; nevertheless, the Repugs have successfully founded an entire power grab around this singular core issue. Furthermore, the tree didn't bear fruit over-night. Quite the contrary, it took decades for the seed to evolve into a seedling, the trunk to sprout branches and the tree to bear their poison fruit.

Democrats have already developed a severe case of tunnel vision on the race for the White House in 2008 rather than focusing on rebuilding their party. In order to succeed, Democrats must stop being re-active on Repug issues and begin moving the goal posts. This can best be accomplished by looking through the windshield rather than the mirrors, taking a big picture focus based upon rational and principled positions and enlarging the base of the party at the local level rather than battling the Repugs for corporate support at the national level - exactly the strategy the Green party is successfully employing in order to develop a truly progressive base from which an actual movement may take root.

by Seldom Seen Smith on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 08:20:40 PM EST

Re: BINGO! (none / 0)

Hell, supah 3s for everbody! I was starting to get cabin fever thinking I was alone in the wilderness.
by Seldom Seen Smith on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 08:30:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Deja vu, all over again. (none / 0)

We have entered an age where politcal affliation is determined almost entirely by pure theory and ideology rather than with a comparative engagement with how different government approaches impact reality.

We've been here before.

In 1860.

by Davis X Machina on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 10:04:14 PM EST

Re: Deja vu, all over again. (none / 0)

you should talk to armando over at dkos ! heh.
by Pounder on Wed Mar 02, 2005 at 11:14:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Crash and burned? (none / 0)

It's been 4 months since the election...the reps haven't crashed and burned because only now is public opinion beginning to favor dem positions. What, do some people actually expect that now that the president is poised to be defeated on a major issue that suddenly millions of peasants will march on Washington bearing torches? Of course not! Change takes time!

Crash and burn, indeed. Revenge is a dish best served cold. I'll be plenty satisfied to watch the GOP hemmorage support over the next few years, setting themselves up for a weak hand in 2008.

http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Mar 03, 2005 at 04:38:27 AM EST

it's the media, stupid (3.00 / 1)

thanks Chris for posting this great entry. IMHO, this finding demonstrates that the it is the filter, that's changed.  We are at a huge disadvantage because the GOPs own their own megaphone (via cable) and we don't.  And, we are at a huge disadvantage because the GOPs are systematically destroying the objective media. Dan Rather, Eason Jordan (and don't forget) Howell Raines were brought down because -- essentially -- they dared to challenge GOP orthodoxy.  And, they weren't brought down because of the genius of Powerline -- they were brought down because Powerline and Little Green Footballs float memes that get picked up by Fox, CNN and MSNBC.

And, has anyone noticed that -- despite hundreds of man hours of pointing out all the hypocriscy of Fox (all that Tivoing by Media Matters) and the right wing pundits -- they are more powerful than ever?  Pointing out that they are full of it does us no good, we need our own platform that can act as an opposing force.

So, we are know this is the problem.  But, what are we doing about it?  Air America was the right direction.  MyDD and DailyKos were also the right direction.  But, we need our own cable network.  What is Gore doing about this?  Where is the money for making this happen?

by lojo on Thu Mar 03, 2005 at 07:13:42 AM EST

I think you guys are vastly overstating (3.00 / 0)

the importance of ideological principles in fashioning Republican loyalty.  Sometimes loyalty is just that -- loyalty -- and the ideological faithfulness springs from the loyalty, not the other way around.

We are undergoing, and have undergone, a massive techtonic shift in this country.  Yes, the Republicans only scored 51% in the last election.  But the loyalty of the new Republicans is unshakeable.  

The loyalty comes from almost an ethnic sense of party identification.  The Republicans have separated themselves from the main body of American politics, portraying themselves as an oppressed minority of values dear to the working middle-class, rural America, and devout Christians.  They have succeeded at hammering home that identification to the point that large segments of the population have bought into it.  For instance, when I visit my sister in a rural part of California, the amount of Bush loyalty goes up dramatically.  And there's a certain "Hooray for the home team" feel to the support that people express.  The anger that is expressed when some of them talk about is... well, it's almost like a 50's southerner talking about "the niggers."  We have been depersonalized.  We don't represent good people with good values.  We've been turned into aliens.

So, I think the problem is bigger than ideology.  Face it -- most people don't have any ideology, and especially no consistent ideology.  But they do have a sense of cultural identity.  And when that identity becomes entrenched, as it seems to have become now -- that, gentlemen, is a gigantic problem.

We can talk about how they have achieved it in another thread.  But nobody stopped it.  It happened under the radar.  For every piece of negative news about the Republicans, there is an alternative news story about the same thing from the Republican tools of the press.  Social Security was going to be privatized?  Well, those Dems always try to scare those seniors, ya know.  

The availability of an alternative, friendly explanation for every bit of bad news, given equal time and credibility by the media, allows the party faithful to always discount any news they don't like and suck up any news they do like.  Bad news, like SS privatization, is just the liberal media trying to snow them.  They can turn to Brit Hume and get the REAL NEWS, which is much more flattering to their perceived identity group.  The insulation is nearly perfect for them.

Dems don't have anything remotely similar.  Well, yeah, maybe -- the blogosphere.  That's about it.  I've had to give up on cable TV news because the rightwing takeover has been so thorough.  Talk radio -- same thing.

We need to fight back in the media.  We need to realize how well-coordinated and targeted the Republican takeover of media has been.  We need to fight fire with fire, in some cases, even if it is distasteful, even if it means we lose the "moral highground," which is just a nice way of saying the loser's bench.  We need smart, bold people, scheming for us.  That is what we lack.  The blogosphere can't make up for that.  Not even slightly.

by Dumbo on Thu Mar 03, 2005 at 08:16:19 AM EST

Republicans are outsiders (none / 0)

You can't blame Republicans for governments failures. They hate the government. Democrats love it. The fact that Republicans happen to be all branches of the government is irrelevant. Its really quite a tactic. They can't lose. If they screw up, we get blamed. If we screw up, we get blamed. Brilliant. Unless we can salvage governments image (this SS debate seems like a great opportunity) we are doomed.
by TJonBergman on Thu Mar 03, 2005 at 10:08:08 AM EST

Where exactly was our opportunity? (none / 0)

Social Security was not even on the burner until Bush started bringing it up after the election and it took a pretty big ramp up period to even get Democrats up to speed on the numbers. Plenty of people who are wondering why we are not pummelling Rethugs around the head and shoulders were not even on board when Jolly Buddah and, ahem, me, started posting on this. Did I miss a bunch of special elections where we could have brought this issue home?

This whole meme  of "Why aren't we killing these guys" is just stupid. We are killing them, a round of town hall meetings back in their districts reinstructed Republicans about the realities of the Third Rail, particularly when their numbers don't add up.

Republicans are not paying a price because there is no plan on the table. And they are coming to the realization that putting any plan on the table is fatal. On the other hand to simply back down and admit there is no problem undercuts their seventy year crusade to discredit and eliminate Social Security.

What's not to like here? They don't put up a bill and we save Social Security. They put up a bill, we kill it and save Social Security and take over control of Congress. I kind of like the latter, but then again I got on board this issue while Dems controlled both the White House and the House.

Social Security is the heart and soul of the Democratic Party. It is our most proud accomplishment. Defending it is more important than transient political gain, and the fact that we are winning on this one should be its own reward.

The fact that if pushed too far Privatization will take a bunch of rat-fucking Republicans down is just gravy.
Nov 21 diary on Social Security
Social Security is not broke: by the numbers

PollKatz: Bush Approval in 15 polls
by Bruce Webb on Sun Mar 06, 2005 at 10:05:19 AM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.