When the newspaper comes in the morning everyone has a section of the paper
they instinctively turn to first. Over the last year and a half every time I
looked at a poll I instinctively looked towards the approve/disapprove numbers
to get a glimpse of what was going on with the presidential race and the general
mood of the electorate. In July I received a call from a close friend who can
best be referred to as a doomsday Democrat who for the first time in our long
friendship exclaimed he thought Bush was toast, but he was still certain that
Kerry would "blow it". During the time I was working in a red area in a deep
red state, but state polling I saw showed Bush with a high disapproval, and
dismal re-elects. In places like South Carolina, North Carolina, Indiana, Arkansas,
etc, Bush was under that magical 50 points incumbents are supposed to be above
to cruise to re-election.
During the late summer and early fall I kept being dumbfounded when I read polls
that showed Kerry's negatives were higher than Bush's, that the net difference
between positive and negative views of Kerry was lower than that of Bush. It
was contradictory from the real situation coming out Iraq, the economy, and
how people viewed the direction of the country. Before my eyes purple areas
in deep red states started to show their original colors. (I promise that this
isn't a David Brooks rendition)
First
this is the general mood of the electorate going into and after Election Day.
The wrong track numbers hovered around 60% for most of they year, while the
right track number hovers around 40%. It's pulled from 95 polls from various
polling organizations throughout the country. The numbers are dismal for any
sitting incumbent, but especially for a sitting president who is running for
re-election. Kerry's Favorable / Unfavorable
Bush's Favorable / Unfavorable
The key to viewing these numbers is to pull the difference between each candidates positives and negatives from each poll. I think Chris was right in his writing about the incumbent rule before the election, though one of the benefits for Republicans of raising Kerry's negatives is that as the final graph shows they were able to mitigate the swing effect of the electorate. By election day the difference between those who had a postive view of Kerry subtracted by those who have a negative view of Kerry is miniscule compared to Bush though they were both around 50% in favorables. Here's that graph:
I've been agnostic to the effect that the swift boat vet's had on Bush, but either way you slice it with the outcome of the election being as close as it was, they certainly would have had some effect by at least giving Bush breathing room after the Democratic Convention and by helping Bush absurdly make the issue Kerry rather than his own performance in office. At best they laid the groundwork for the ensuing sludge that poured out of the RNC during and after the convention. It's an indictment of the up is down world of George W. Bush that at the end of the day they were able to raise Kerry's negatives so high that they could escape any accountability. If one can escape for a second from the hyper politicized world we blog readers and writers live in and step out and look at the re-election of a president who's own performance in office is distrusted by almost 60% of the electorate but whom through a series of a series of underhanded and sleazy attacks is able to re-split the country to narrowly re-elect him we'd at best be shocked. The gall of a campaign that perfected racist literature drops and push polling to send an email out right before the election warning of dastardly Democratic phone banking, with the ominous subject, "Turn on your answering machine," while sending out a lit piece with Kerry's face next the burning towers on 9/11 would be amusing if it wasn't so sick. (via The Carpetbagger and the indispensable Raw Story.) In conclusion, I don't mean for this to be an indictment against Kerry in any means. The skeleton of the campaign to raise the negatives of the Democratic nominee was set out well beforehand and if one was paying attention during the primaries you could see some of the signs that part of the same narrative would be used against Dean, Edwards, Gephardt, Clark and even Lieberman.
I think this is somethng that we need to incorporate into the way we talk about Republicans. I will be coming back to the theme in the future, and the blowback from the USA Next ads shows that maybe a little sunshine is all that's needed to send the cockroaches scurrying.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 57 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.