2008: Quicker than ever, no Dean, & HRC vs Tancredo

What the hell, lets talk about 2008 three years early. Well, probably only two, or even one.

Following Presidential elections, there's usually a period of a couple of months, where the next Presidential election is talked about, and then the press follows something else for a while, ignoring who might run the next time. That was certainly the case during 2001. So when MyDD started blogging about the 2004 Presidential race on a regular basis in 2002, it became one of the only blogs on the web to do so. By the summer of 2002, when we began the initial netroots for Dean Presidential campaign here, the novelty began to have revolutionary implications.

The revolution has become the norm now, and there are too many unofficial 2008 blogs to count. Dean waited until January 2003 to go officially operational on the web, and DFA didn't launch BFA until March 2003. That's going to change for 2008, as the candidate that launches a mere 10 months from the first elections, is going to find themselves running to catchup. One other thing that will change, and from the vantage point of a netroots advocate it seems very favorable, is that electing Howard Dean as the DNC Chair opens up the netroots activists to engaging with others in the field potential Democratic candidates. I think we'll find that 3-4 candidates emerge on the Democratic side with early and strong netroots campaigns, and possibly even a Republican trying for their nomination.

I can't talk about '08 without talking about a new HRC-Bush poll or the ultra winger Tancredo hoping into the GOP race, so here ya go.

Hillary Clinton is kicking the crapola out of Jeb Bush. Westhill/Hotline just did a poll of the matchup, yet again showing it's a blowout (ok, a plurality blowout):
WH '08 Matchup 
                All GOP Ind Dem
Clinton         46% 11% 44% 80%
Bush            37  74  30   8
Undec/Oth       17  15  26  12
I find it tough to believe that bit about Jeb Bush having low name ID as the reason for his poor showing, he's a Bush! Does anyone besides me believe that Jeb is Dick's replacement in waiting?

Tom Tancredo is the Democratic dream candidate for the GOP to nominate. ProgressNow in Colorado is tracking Rep. Tom Tancredo's visits to New Hampshire and Iowa. Providence Phoenix covered Tancredo's visit to NH:

GOING GRANITE

This Thursday and Friday, February 3 and 4, one of the most questionable people in American electoral office will travel to New Hampshire to check out what the anti-immigrant vote looks like. Testing the waters for a potential presidential run in 2008 will be Representative Tom Tancredo (R-Colorado).

Purportedly, Tancredo is going to the "Live Free or Die" state to present an award to New Ipswich chief of police, W. Garrett Chamberlain on Thursday. On Friday he'll be holding public meetings in Manchester, Nashua, and New Bedford. and meeting with key Republicans.

Last July, Chamberlain became a hero to a certain segment of the radical right when he stopped and detained nine Ecuadorian immigrants, and then threw a very public fit when federal officials took no interest in his "find" and told him to let them go. Since then, Chamberlain has become the darling of anti-immigration groups (e.g., American Patrol). He has also boasted that he managed to deport 11 Mexicans from New Ipswich in October. The Mexicans had been working full-time for a cement company.

And where did Chamberlain make that boast? Why, on Congressman Tancredo's "Team America" Web site. Tancredo is among the leading anti-immigration voices in American politics today. We're not talking about reforming or refining immigration policy, but full-blown ranting and ethnic stereotyping. Tancredo is so intense that the eminently right-wing editorial page of the Wall Street Journal took him, among others, to task in 2002 for "exploiting the terror attacks [9/11] to advance [their] anti-immigration agenda."

Tancredo is the real thing. He's accused Bush of not being a real conservative, because the president does not embrace his reactionary immigration positions. So, check out the new face of homegrown fear mongering during his visit to our neck of the woods.



Display:


Never-Ending Campaigns (3.00 / 1)

Let's face it. We were already on the way to never-ending campaigns, and with the help of blogs and the net, we are now officially there.

No one can afford to 'wait' to launch a campaign anymore. Perhaps parts of it, or the official filing/pronouncement, but the real campaign has to be running ASAP.

True activists don't wait for a starting gun to fire.

by DDenver on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 11:16:22 AM EST

It could be a GOOD THING (none / 0)

That means candidates have to keep people entertained and active for four years not just 3 months...

It is bad for candidates who join late but good for activists.

Besides telling us how to live, think, marry, pray, vote, invest, educate our children and, die, the GOP has done a fine job of getting gov't out of our lives.
by Parker on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 11:56:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Never-Ending Campaigns (none / 0)

I'm just one blogger, so it's difficult for me to correct all of the lies in that ProgressNow article. I'd also like to suggest that "liberals" look closely at their "friends."

I'm going to assume those "Ecuadorian immigrants" were in fact illegal aliens. The Feds probably weren't interested in them for two reasons: a) they didn't have enought manpower, and b) the employers of those illegal aliens would have thrown a fit. So, in their quest to support "immigrants", "liberals" end up supporting big corporate donors to Bush and a modern-day hacendado system.

ProgressNow attempts to buttress their argument by referring to the WSJ. And, a reference is given below to the WSJ as well.

Can you add two and two and look a bit more closely at your "friends"? Why would the WSJ oppose someone who's opposed to massive illegal immigration? Think about that for a few minutes and then you might wonder whether you should trust what ProgressNow tells you.

And, to help broaden your knowledge of this issue, consider an "immigrants guide" published by Colorado's Education Dep't. Sounds good, right?

Except it gives several tips for living here illegally. And, it was co-sponsored by the Mexican consulate. And, major funding came from:

the First Data Western Union Foundation, also offers advice on how to send money back to Mexico by electronic transfer by using companies "such as Western Union." A sample budget for "Jose and Ana Maria" budgets $200 per month to "family in Mexico."

Perhaps liberals should determine whether they're "pro-immigrant" or just suckers.

by TheLonewackoBlog on Sat Feb 05, 2005 at 01:01:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary (none / 0)

I tell ya, I never thought she would have a chance, but I'm starting to beileve that not only could she win, she may be able to kick some serious republican ass.   I'm not particularty fond of her as our nominee, I'm a Clark guy, but the thought of America having a woman as president is awesome!
by JAmbro on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 11:20:19 AM EST

Re: Hillary (none / 0)

there is no way that woman can win.

She too willing to throw overboard not only the baby but the bathwater to appease the right.

Her slow reversal on pro-choice will be her downfall and parroting GOP value-less talking points on so called Christian values without mentioning the outright bigotry that they promote and talking up failed and dangerous programmes like abstinence is insulting.

There is a good diary on dKos where some staunch Democratic backers are thinking about backing Chaffee(R) pro-choice if the DSCC dares to override the state's choice and back an anti-choice Dem. to run for the Senate.

What politicians like Hilliary need to realize is that we have lost everything and the only way up is fighting for what we believe in and not just appeasing the right.

Besides telling us how to live, think, marry, pray, vote, invest, educate our children and, die, the GOP has done a fine job of getting gov't out of our lives.
by Parker on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 11:54:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary (none / 0)

I don't want to start defending Hillary, as I said, I want to see Clark there, but people over react way too much about her around here.  Her pro-choice reversal? come one, why because she said abstinence in addition to birth control would help?  Because she said it's a tragic decision?  My goodness, Bill always said that same sort of crap.
by JAmbro on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 12:04:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary (none / 0)

My favorite democratic candidate (baring Zell Miller entering the contest) is one who will win.  That said, while all these early horse race polls are entertaining, you have to be able to answer: what state(s) will the '08 candidate carry that Kerry lost and what states might the candidate lose which he won?  And it is for that reason that I am not sold on HRC.  I don't see her carrying Ohio or Iowa.  Not sure about a requisite combination of NM, AR, CO and NV but I doubt it.  Of course if she can take FL it is about all she needs.  I can't think off hand of a state that Kerry won where I think she would lose because of who she is.  On the other hand, I can see in my mind's eye other candidates flipping states a bit easier.

If the Republicans are bent on nominating a real nut job (e.g. Tancredo, Santorum) I would give any dem candidate better odds.

by comotion on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 12:12:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OH Yeah...Tancredo in 08 (none / 0)

Hell Yeah, that guy is great...Not only would the WH be a slam dunk but we might get a 2/3 majority in the House and Senate.

Wow, he is even to the right of Bush...man, that is scary...

If the Dems can't beat this guy, it is best to fold up the party, as we won't be able to beat anyone.  

by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 11:52:35 AM EST

Re: OH Yeah...Tancredo in 08 (none / 0)

I dunno.  We should be careful what we wish for.  Look at who "won" the last two times.
by rawk on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 12:01:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OH Yeah...Tancredo in 08 (none / 0)

No chance...This guy loses Florida, New Mexico, and Arizona just off his immigration stance.  I would bet money the Latino voters would reject this guy.  Conservatively, we get 95% of the Latino vote.
by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 10:13:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OH Yeah...Tancredo in 08 (none / 0)

See, you're making the assumption that the American people think rationally.  I think that's a faulty assumption.
by asearchforreason on Sat Feb 05, 2005 at 10:49:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Also if extended campaigns (none / 0)

Can get a DINO like Bayh to pretend that he is a Democrat for four years...well, I am not going to complain.
Besides telling us how to live, think, marry, pray, vote, invest, educate our children and, die, the GOP has done a fine job of getting gov't out of our lives.
by Parker on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 11:58:49 AM EST

Re: Also if extended campaigns (none / 0)

Bayh is not a DINO.  We cannot have intra-party fighting.  Evan Bayh will get elected President and he will win the nomination.

Feingold has no executive experience as a Governor.  Evan does, and to top that off, he has federal experience.

The Kentucky Democrat
by kydem on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 12:39:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also if extended campaigns (none / 0)

Bayh can't win and doesn't deserve to.
by sam89 on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 04:31:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also if extended campaigns (none / 0)

i'll be saying "I told you so" in the future
The Kentucky Democrat
by kydem on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 05:44:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also if extended campaigns (none / 0)

I'll take that bet... Bayh doesn't get past the primary.  
by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 10:08:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Also if extended campaigns (none / 0)

He also has the personality of a cardboard box.
by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 10:15:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Tancredo is a nice pipe dream. (none / 0)

when is the last time a member of the House won a Presidential nomination?
by johnny longtorso on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 12:05:10 PM EST

Sniffing the food, but can't taste it (none / 0)

Jerome !

you gave me a sniff of the food regarding Tancredo, but no taste...what kind of rantings and ravings can we expect ?

I want to push for this guy !

I think it would be good strategy to not only push for Dem candidates to win, but also Rep candidates to lose.

by Pounder on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 12:18:06 PM EST

Re: Sniffing the food, but can't taste it (none / 0)

Here's a PR to quench you a bit:

Citizens call on Republicans to Disavow Colleague's Racist Agenda

New Ipswich, N.H.: Citizens across the country called on Republican elected officials to disavow the extremist agenda of Congressman Tom Tancredo who is in New Hampshire today to test his far right agenda in a possible 2008 presidential election.

Tancredo plans to visit with New Hampshire Republicans and to meet with the public in Nashua, Bedford and Manchester. He plans to meet with staff at the Union Leader and speak at the Nashua Christian School.

· The Wall Street Journal  has said that Tancredo is "exploiting the terror attacks to advance [his] anti-immigration agenda...." (3/18/02).

· The Greeley Tribune Editorial Board has said that Tancredo  "unfortunately gives credibility to bigotry toward immigrants in the United States - legal or illegal." (2/18/04)

· Tabor Jacoby of the Manhattan Institute has said that: "The Know Nothing Party of the 1840s begat the Anglo-Saxonist movement of the 1890s begat the Ku Klux Klan in the 1920s, and on into our era. Pete Wilson, Pat Buchanan, Congressman Tom Tancredo of Colorado . . . today's restrictionist pantheon, too, is made up almost entirely of Republicans or conservatives." (Wall Street Journal 12/06/2004.)

"We would like to know where Rep. Tancredo's colleagues stand on his racist agenda," asked Michael Huttner, the Executive Director of ProgressNow.org, a national grassroots organization of thousands of concerned citizens.  We ask the  Tancredo's Republican colleagues --in New Hampshire, Colorado and nationally to disavow Tancredo's racist agenda.

The Team America Pledge, which Congressman Tancredo is demanding his colleagues sign includes vows to:

 - oppose any sort of amnesty for Illegal Aliens.
 - support a "time out" on immigration until serious reforms can be enacted.
 - support the use of American military forces on the border until the Border Patrol is at full strength.

by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 12:28:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sniffing the food, but can't taste it (none / 0)

To see some rabid Tom-lovers, go here.  

For the disappointing news that he's not going to run, go here.  

I'm thinking we're going to have to back Alan Keyes instead.

by Colorado Gringo on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 08:02:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sniffing the food, but can't taste it (none / 0)

Please see my above comment.

Where exactly in that pledge is the racism suggested by ProgressNow?

Let me state this again: the WSJ and Tamar Jacoby are opposed to Tancredo for quite "illiberal" reasons. Any "liberal" who'd agree with their arguments is not so liberal or is just a sucker.

by TheLonewackoBlog on Sat Feb 05, 2005 at 01:08:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

2008-A Candidate (3.00 / 1)

I am surprised that I have not heard Harry Reid mentioned!  I think he is doing much better as minority leader than I could have wished for-He is pro-life himself but wants to protect a womens right to choose for herself.  He has a Senate record and that might have some real surprises as Kerry's did-however, the guy can talk with average folks.
This is not the time to start bashing or promoting Hillary IMHO.  What she does in the next year makes all the difference-she is a very polarizing figure at this time.  If it turns out she is a warrior for Social Sec. that would help.
I loved Bill Clinton as Pres. and I still admire him greatly, however, would he be accepted as First Man?  Maybe if he really pushes good works in the UN?  Time will tell.

And maybe a REID/CLINTON ticket would give the coutry a chance to like a women near the top.

I really do think he is a good candidate.

by lja on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 12:55:46 PM EST

Re: 2008-A Candidate (none / 0)

I can't see the newly elected minority leader of the senate running for President in 2008.  Maybe 4-8 (hopefully 8) years down the road...
by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 10:17:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pete and Repete were riding in a boat.... (none / 0)

One way or another an "establishment candidate", like Kerry, (and Clinton is perfect) will becomne the nominee. That's my expectation. Dean was/is a borderline establishment/progressive figure at best.

They (the establishment) are out to co-opt his energy and connections to the "new" internet reality. You see that co-optation already in sites like dailyKos. Progressive voices swamped by mediocre understandings.

So as this site re-arranges the deck-chairs, I will find myself looking elsewhere for the futile voices of powerless realities.

So the question that I will be interested in is not who will get the nomination, but who can effectively futilely contest it from the progressive - powerless - side. Who will be 2008's Sharpton, Kucinich and yes even who will be 2008's Nader?

Jeff Wegerson - PrairieStateBlue
by wegerje on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 01:05:22 PM EST

I would probably take some bets (none / 0)

but I ended up owing a few people over the last election. I suspect that the final candidate will be someone no one expected and no one will be talking about this early in the game. Here's an early guess: Barak Obama for VP.
"Man will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest." -- Denis Diderot
by Stoic on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 01:51:11 PM EST

succession (none / 0)

yeah, I strongly suspect that cheney will resign somewhere in this term to annoint a successor. And while my rational self thinks that not even they could be so audacious as to put jeb in there, I then remember all the other times I thought they wouldn't have the balls to do something outrageous. But who else is there? Frist, Allen (have ya seen this guy oozing sanctimony)?

I remain convinced that Rove etal are as likely to relinquish their hold on the executive as a dog gives up a bone. I'd be looking at where they place their chips in 06, auditioning puppets.

As for Hillary, I find her really uncompelling. I think the moment for clintonian triangulation is over. The democrat I end up supporting will be the one who leads with passion and an unashamed vision of what it means to be a democrat. And I don't see her ever being that person.

I saw the seeds of it in Clark last time around. We'll see

by lovedog7 on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 02:29:35 PM EST

The thing of it is, (none / 0)

the numbers can be turned around in a relatively short period of time. After the 2006 elections, the focus will be on 2008, and at that point the hatecasters will start promoting the Reep favorite and attacking the Dems. That will seep down from the Reep cultists into the popular culture, and it will be reflected in the numbers. We just saw this happen, remember?

Don't forget that the best candidate in the world can be ruined in the media.

Yeah, I'm cynical.
by catastrophile on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 02:47:12 PM EST

What a dick (1.00 / 0)

See photo here.

With Musgrave to the east and this nut job to the north, I really can't complain too much about my representation in Colorado Springs.

by Colorado Gringo on Fri Feb 04, 2005 at 05:06:29 PM EST


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