It would be too much, more than I could hope for, that on the same day Dean became the presumptive choice for DNC chair that the entire Senate Fainthearted Faction decided to fold up shop. However,
that may indeed have happened:
Not a single Senate Democrat will support President Bush's proposal to divert a portion of the Social Security payroll tax to personal investment accounts, Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Tuesday.
If he is right, Bush's plan will be dead on arrival in the Senate, where a supermajority of 60 votes will be needed to overcome a filibuster by opponents. Republicans have 55 seats.(...)
Reid said he had private commitments from all 44 Senate Democrats that they would not support diverting payroll tax revenues into private accounts, the key facet of Bush's plan. The Democratic staff on the Senate Finance Committee has come to the same conclusion, based on polling Democratic members and their staffs.
Now, there were only
four remaining members of the Senate Fainthearted Faction anyway, including two with "One Foot Out the Door." That already meant we had at least forty votes, with Jeffords unaccounted for. Further, there are two "Loud and Proud" Republican members of the
Conscience Caucus, with Chafee and Smith looking to make it two more. In the best-case scenario, that puts us at 49 votes to save Social Security. Apparently, right now the worst case scenario might be 46 votes--five more than we needed!
Could it be? Two huge victories in one day? Not so fast. With $100M and the Republican Noise Machine behind it, Bush's plan might still have legs. Still, even if it does not, there is more going on in the Social Security debate than Social Security anyway.
For starters, Republicans aim to use the debate as a means of improving their own image and tarnishing Democrats as "the Party of the Past" and
anti-reform:
The debate about Social Security is going to be a monumental clash of ideas -- and it's important for the conservative movement that we win both the battle of ideas and the legislation that will give those ideas life. The Democrat Party leadership, the AARP, and many others will go after Social Security reform hammer and tongs. ... But Democrats and liberals are in a precarious position; they are attempting to block reform to a system that almost every serious-minded person concedes needs it. They are in a position of arguing against modernizing a system created almost four generations ago. Increasingly the Democrat Party is the party of obstruction and opposition. It is the Party of the Past.
Further, they aim to use the debate to make gains among young voters, one of the few demographics where Republicans experienced a serious setback in 2004: Younger voters were easily the biggest success story for Democrats in the 2004 election cycle, shifting significantly toward Dems
in partisan self-identification, voting for Kerry by a
54-45 margin (up from
Gore's 48-46 margin), and, in the under thirty electoral college,
Kerry won 375-163. Thus, it should come as no surprise that Republicans would like to find a way to bring younger voters back. In Social Security destruction,
they think they have their issue:
There are more conservative lawmakers, though, who support Bush's idea. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., says revamping the financially shaky pension program can be a political coup for Republicans.
Ryan concedes there's risk in reshaping Social Security, whose recipients include 32 million retired workers and dependents who don't want their benefits cut. But he sees a huge political upside: winning the gratitude of investment-savvy younger voters who see the program's monthly checks as financially stodgy.
"Younger voters, that's just a layup," Ryan said. "When they see the Democratic Party trying to oppose giving them access to their own Social Security (investment) account, that's a political winner for us and a loser for them."
Granted, this plan does not in fact seem to be a hit with younger voters--yet. Right now, they are more opposed to Bush's plan than
any other age group. However, younger voters
are the number one swing group around, and given this volatility we should not in anyway consider this group set in stone against Bush's plan.
Even aside from these twin political goals--winning younger voters and painting Democrats as anti-reform, Republicans could even use the Social Security debate to secure the final piece of their actual tax reform goal:
A couple of weeks ago Jon Chait wrote a long and informative article in the New Republic about tax reform.
Here's how he describes a Republican strategy called "Five Easy Pieces":
The Five Easy Pieces strategy postulates that the long-time conservative goal of a sweepingly radical tax overhaul, such as replacing the income tax with a flat tax or a national sales tax, runs too much political risk. Instead, [longtime tax lobbyist Ernest] Christian has argued, conservatives can achieve the same goal by doing five things: cutting marginal tax rates, eliminating taxes on capital gains and dividends, allowing more generous treatment of business investment, doing away with the estate tax, and establishing tax-free personal savings accounts. The three major Bush tax cuts to date have achieved the first four pieces, partially or completely.
I wonder if the final phase of this strategy is behind Bush's Social Security posturing? Maybe the plan looks something like this:
- 1. Bush proposes private accounts for Social Security.
- 2. As expected, Democrats go to the mattresses in opposition. However, in an effort to demonstrate reasonableness they all agree -- almost in passing -- that of course they have nothing against encouraging savings, but that it should be done in addition to Social Security, not in place of it.
- 3. After pretending to give it a good try, Bush counts noses, realizes he can't win, and reluctantly agrees to settle for tax-free private accounts on top of Social Security, just like the ones Dems say they have nothing against. Of course, this will be the Republican version of tax-free private accounts -- big, unrestricted ones that mostly help the well off -- but by now the Dems can hardly oppose a compromise like this, can they?
- 4. Part 5 of Five Easy Pieces is now enshrined in law.
Is this right? I don't know. But there has to be something going on that's not obvious on the surface.
Even if Reid is right and Bush's plan is DOA, there is obviously a lot more at stake in this debate than saving Social Security.
Keep working. This fight will be waged all the way until November, 2006.