Social Security Battle Not Just About Social Security

It would be too much, more than I could hope for, that on the same day Dean became the presumptive choice for DNC chair that the entire Senate Fainthearted Faction decided to fold up shop. However, that may indeed have happened:
Not a single Senate Democrat will support President Bush's proposal to divert a portion of the Social Security payroll tax to personal investment accounts, Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Tuesday.

If he is right, Bush's plan will be dead on arrival in the Senate, where a supermajority of 60 votes will be needed to overcome a filibuster by opponents. Republicans have 55 seats.(...)

Reid said he had private commitments from all 44 Senate Democrats that they would not support diverting payroll tax revenues into private accounts, the key facet of Bush's plan. The Democratic staff on the Senate Finance Committee has come to the same conclusion, based on polling Democratic members and their staffs.

Now, there were only four remaining members of the Senate Fainthearted Faction anyway, including two with "One Foot Out the Door." That already meant we had at least forty votes, with Jeffords unaccounted for. Further, there are two "Loud and Proud" Republican members of the Conscience Caucus, with Chafee and Smith looking to make it two more. In the best-case scenario, that puts us at 49 votes to save Social Security. Apparently, right now the worst case scenario might be 46 votes--five more than we needed!

Could it be? Two huge victories in one day? Not so fast. With $100M and the Republican Noise Machine behind it, Bush's plan might still have legs. Still, even if it does not, there is more going on in the Social Security debate than Social Security anyway.

For starters, Republicans aim to use the debate as a means of improving their own image and tarnishing Democrats as "the Party of the Past" and anti-reform:
The debate about Social Security is going to be a monumental clash of ideas -- and it's important for the conservative movement that we win both the battle of ideas and the legislation that will give those ideas life. The Democrat Party leadership, the AARP, and many others will go after Social Security reform hammer and tongs. ... But Democrats and liberals are in a precarious position; they are attempting to block reform to a system that almost every serious-minded person concedes needs it. They are in a position of arguing against modernizing a system created almost four generations ago. Increasingly the Democrat Party is the party of obstruction and opposition. It is the Party of the Past.
Further, they aim to use the debate to make gains among young voters, one of the few demographics where Republicans experienced a serious setback in 2004: Younger voters were easily the biggest success story for Democrats in the 2004 election cycle, shifting significantly toward Dems in partisan self-identification, voting for Kerry by a 54-45 margin (up from Gore's 48-46 margin), and, in the under thirty electoral college, Kerry won 375-163. Thus, it should come as no surprise that Republicans would like to find a way to bring younger voters back. In Social Security destruction, they think they have their issue:
There are more conservative lawmakers, though, who support Bush's idea. Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., says revamping the financially shaky pension program can be a political coup for Republicans. Ryan concedes there's risk in reshaping Social Security, whose recipients include 32 million retired workers and dependents who don't want their benefits cut. But he sees a huge political upside: winning the gratitude of investment-savvy younger voters who see the program's monthly checks as financially stodgy. "Younger voters, that's just a layup," Ryan said. "When they see the Democratic Party trying to oppose giving them access to their own Social Security (investment) account, that's a political winner for us and a loser for them."
Granted, this plan does not in fact seem to be a hit with younger voters--yet. Right now, they are more opposed to Bush's plan than any other age group. However, younger voters are the number one swing group around, and given this volatility we should not in anyway consider this group set in stone against Bush's plan.

Even aside from these twin political goals--winning younger voters and painting Democrats as anti-reform, Republicans could even use the Social Security debate to secure the final piece of their actual tax reform goal:

A couple of weeks ago Jon Chait wrote a long and informative article in the New Republic about tax reform. Here's how he describes a Republican strategy called "Five Easy Pieces":

The Five Easy Pieces strategy postulates that the long-time conservative goal of a sweepingly radical tax overhaul, such as replacing the income tax with a flat tax or a national sales tax, runs too much political risk. Instead, [longtime tax lobbyist Ernest] Christian has argued, conservatives can achieve the same goal by doing five things: cutting marginal tax rates, eliminating taxes on capital gains and dividends, allowing more generous treatment of business investment, doing away with the estate tax, and establishing tax-free personal savings accounts. The three major Bush tax cuts to date have achieved the first four pieces, partially or completely. I wonder if the final phase of this strategy is behind Bush's Social Security posturing? Maybe the plan looks something like this:

  • 1. Bush proposes private accounts for Social Security.

  • 2. As expected, Democrats go to the mattresses in opposition. However, in an effort to demonstrate reasonableness they all agree -- almost in passing -- that of course they have nothing against encouraging savings, but that it should be done in addition to Social Security, not in place of it.

  • 3. After pretending to give it a good try, Bush counts noses, realizes he can't win, and reluctantly agrees to settle for tax-free private accounts on top of Social Security, just like the ones Dems say they have nothing against. Of course, this will be the Republican version of tax-free private accounts -- big, unrestricted ones that mostly help the well off -- but by now the Dems can hardly oppose a compromise like this, can they?

  • 4. Part 5 of Five Easy Pieces is now enshrined in law.
Is this right? I don't know. But there has to be something going on that's not obvious on the surface.
Even if Reid is right and Bush's plan is DOA, there is obviously a lot more at stake in this debate than saving Social Security. Keep working. This fight will be waged all the way until November, 2006.

Display:


I was wary at first (3.00 / 2)

but so far Reid is doing a DAMN GOOD JOB far better than Daschel ever did...Kudos to Reid.
Besides telling us how to live, think, marry, pray, vote, invest, educate our children and, die, the GOP has done a fine job of getting gov't out of our lives.
by Parker on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 10:44:11 AM EST

agreed! (none / 0)

i was wary of reid, too, but he sure seems to have his sh*t together.  bravo!
Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 11:27:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was wary at first (none / 0)

Reid is the second best parliamentarian in the Democratic party, right behind Sen. Byrd. That's why he was chosen Minority Leader, pure and simple.
by Gary Boatwright on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 12:43:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was wary at first (none / 0)

I agree with you.  I doubted and now I am starting to believe.
by SRconbio on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 06:44:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Social Insecurity (none / 0)

I suspect that as it becomes increasingly clear that the GOP plan to mess with SS is not going to fly in Congress, the R's will start crafting some halfass, watered-down plan to allow Bush to save face and not be defeated on such a high profile issue.
by global yokel on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 11:08:52 AM EST

The youngest age group (none / 0)

opposes private accounts the most? I've heard the opposite, that they support it the most and the oldest age group opposes private accounts by the widest margin.
by buckfush on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 11:11:35 AM EST

Their next goal: Shift all health care costs onto (none / 0)

This will create a huge class of 'unemplyable' people and indeed, make it much harder for most older people to find jobs (this is already happening, now, many companies, like Google, don't hire older workers -those over 30 or so- 'because of the increased costs of insuring them')

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0131-06.htm

Published on Monday, January 31, 2005 by the Los Angeles Times
Healthcare Overhaul Is Quietly Underway
by Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar

WASHINGTON -- Emboldened by their success at the polls, the Bush administration and Republican leaders in Congress believe they have a new opportunity to move the nation away from the system of employer-provided health insurance that has covered most working Americans for the last half-century.

In its place, they want to erect a system in which workers -- instead of looking to employers for health insurance -- would take personal responsibility for protecting themselves and their families: They would buy high-deductible "catastrophic" insurance policies to cover major medical needs, then pay routine costs with money set aside in tax-sheltered health savings accounts.

Elements of that approach have been on the conservative agenda for years, but what has suddenly put it on the fast track is GOP confidence that the political balance of power has changed.

With Democratic strength reduced, President Bush, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Bill Thomas (R-Bakersfield) are pushing for action.

Supporters of the new approach, who see it as part of Bush's "ownership society," say workers and their families would become more careful users of healthcare if they had to pay the bills. Also, they say, the lower premiums on high-deductible plans would make coverage affordable for the uninsured and for small businesses.

"My view is that this is absolutely the next big thing," said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, whose consulting firm focuses on healthcare. "You are going to see a continued move to trying to get people involved in the process by owning their own health accounts."

Critics say the Republican approach is really an attempt to shift the risks, massive costs and knotty problems of healthcare from employers to individuals. And they say the GOP is moving forward with far less public attention or debate than have surrounded Bush's plans to overhaul Social Security.

Indeed, Bush's health insurance agenda is far more developed than his Social Security plans and is advancing at a rapid clip through a combination of actions by government, insurers, employers and individuals.

Health savings accounts, known as HSAs, have already been approved. They were created as a little-noticed appendage to the 2003 Medicare prescription drug bill.

HSAs have had a strong start in the marketplace. Although regulations spelling out how they would work were not issued until mid-2004, as of Sept. 30, about 440,000 people had signed up. And more than one-quarter of employers say they are likely to offer them as an option.

The accounts are available only to people who buy high-deductible health insurance, either through an employer or individually. Consumers can set aside tax-free an amount equal to their deductible. Employers can contribute to workers' HSAs but do not have to. Unused balances can be rolled over from year to year, and employees take their HSAs with them when they switch jobs.

The idea that losing one's job would not automatically mean losing protection for medical costs has bipartisan appeal. "Portability" was a key feature of President Clinton's ill-fated healthcare reform plan. But the GOP approach is significantly different: Whereas Clinton would have required all employers to chip in for universal health insurance, Bush wants to leave responsibility primarily to individuals.

"This is certainly getting a lot of attention from employers," said Jack Rodgers, a healthcare analyst for PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.

One reason is potential cost savings to employers.

A typical catastrophic health insurance plan carries an annual deductible of about $1,600 for an individual when purchased through a large employer. That means the worker pays the first $1,600 of healthcare expenses each year. By contrast, under the more comprehensive, employer-provided health insurance programs common today, the company begins to pay after about $300 in expenses have been incurred. Deductibles for families are considerably higher under both types of plans.

"There's an issue about whether these things will work," Rodgers said. "[But] we could end up coming back 10 years from now and everybody will have high-deductible plans and [health savings accounts]."

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who agrees with Bush that individuals should take more responsibility for controlling health costs, is nonetheless skeptical that HSAs, coupled with high-deductible insurance, will prove workable as a substitute for the present system.

"I think the American people are going to want more of a safety net than the administration has been willing to commit to this far," Wyden said.

Still, catastrophic health insurance is gaining credibility as a policy option.

The California Medical Assn. supports a plan that would require all residents of the most populous state to carry at least high-deductible coverage -- just as automobile liability insurance is often mandatory. White House spokesman Trent Duffy said Bush was not contemplating such a requirement at the federal level.

But the existence of health savings accounts may make it easier to enact state mandates such as the California proposal.

Despite the record federal budget deficit, Bush on Wednesday proposed additional tax breaks and subsidies for HSAs, particularly for low-income families. He also called for a tax credit to help small businesses offer the plans to their employees. The low-income aid would be worth a maximum of $3,000 per family.

"Health savings accounts all aim at empowering people to make decisions for themselves, owning their own healthcare plan," the president said. Consumer-driven decision-making is more likely to control costs than having bills paid by a third party, such as an employer, he added.

"If a third party makes that payment, [the consumer] never gets to ask the question [about cost]," Bush said. "He just accepts the decision. And all of a sudden, when you have consumers starting to ask questions about cost, it is a governor on cost, at the very minimum."

During his confirmation hearings, incoming Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt called for renewing the national debate over the future of the healthcare system and spoke of "the transformational need of detaching healthcare and employment."

Critics say that Bush's vision represents wishful thinking at best, and at worst, a perilous new direction in national health policy.

"One danger with this is that people will not get needed care because they want to save a few thousand bucks," said Rep. Pete Stark (D-Hayward), a leading lawmaker on healthcare.

"Healthcare isn't like buying a Chevrolet," Stark added, disputing Bush's assertion that individual patients can be empowered to control costs. "You can go to Consumer Reports and read about the new Malibu, but if I asked you to describe a regimen of chemotherapy for someone who has colon cancer, you'd be out of gas.

"We are talking about highly technical services that 99% of the public doesn't even know how to spell the names of," he said. "Secondly, there is no uniformity within the medical community as to what services ought to be used. It's a 'by guess and by gosh' sort of practice."

The combination of HSAs and catastrophic insurance is too new for any definitive data on how consumers are faring.

A study released Thursday by the Commonwealth Fund, a private foundation that supports research on healthcare policy, found that people with high-deductible policies were more likely to have trouble paying medical bills than those in traditional insurance plans. They were also more likely to skip care because of cost.

The study did not look at the combination of high-deductible plans with HSAs, but the report cautioned that the savings accounts might not solve all the problems.

Many experts believe HSAs could quickly become one of the main ways to obtain health insurance for people working in small companies or buying coverage on their own.

Workers at large companies with standard health plans may be less likely to experiment with HSAs, although many large employers are already requiring their workers to shoulder a bigger share of health insurance costs. The existence of a government-sanctioned alternative to the traditional system might accelerate that trend.

"We are not trying to do one big change for the whole country, all at once -- like what sunk Hillary-care," said Grace-Marie Turner, president of the Galen Institute, a research organization that promotes conservative, market-based health reform.

We want to let people choose this if it meets their needs, and not rip out the underpinnings of the current system."

But even the most ardent backers of HSAs concede that the country is not fully ready for them. They say critics such as Stark are correct to point out that there is little information available to consumers for comparing the costs of various medical options.

In a recent article in the New England Journal of Medicine, Frist called for what would amount to a healthcare information revolution. Within the next decade, he said, patients should be able to gain online access to performance rankings and prices for doctors and hospitals.

"Increased access to more accurate information about care and pricing will make possible ... the transformation of the healthcare system," Frist wrote. "Whether selecting their physician, hospital or health plan, consumers must be able to choose what best meets their needs."

A comprehensive system of healthcare information would be costly to create, and perhaps challenging for patients to navigate. On Thursday, Bush proposed some initial steps, such as computerized medical records and standardized information technology for medical offices.

His vision of an empowered patient calling the shots may stand little chance without a new information infrastructure.

Gingrich acknowledged: "You can't have an informed marketplace in a setting where you don't have any information."

by ultraworld on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 11:22:07 AM EST

Damn Right...Bastards (none / 0)

"This will create a huge class of 'unemplyable' people and indeed, make it much harder for most older people to find jobs (this is already happening, now, many companies, like Google, don't hire older workers -those over 30 or so- 'because of the increased costs of insuring them')"

You are right about this...My dad was out of work for two years (just got a job) except as a comissioned sales person because he couldn't get a job due to age.  He was layed off along with a lot of other Aging Managers and had a terrible time finding a job.  He was head of his division, making 6 figures so he had the experience.  His new job is 5 figures, about 50K less than what he was making before.  Luckily it is a smaller company run by older people, so he should be ok.  

This practice is ridiculous...It doesn't affect me now (and I think you may be mistaken of 30 as the cutoff age... the pool of workers would be miniscule as the most experience one could have is 8 years..my guess is 40 or 50.) but It will in the future.  Another thing our party needs to help stop.  

by yitbos96bb on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 01:47:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Their next goal: Shift all health (none / 0)

Screw this...

The Tribune has an article talking about how the majority of Bankrupcies are because of medical expenses.  Over 60% of these people HAD INSURANCE while sick.  They still couldn't afford it.

I know that some hate it, but we need a Universal Health Care system in this country like a lot of the EU members and Canada has.  Even with the HSAs that doesn't mean the procedures will be cheaper.  Unless the government regulates prices, people are going to die.  I hope history paints Bush as the America's greatest monster...This guy is scummier than I even thought possible.

by yitbos96bb on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 02:02:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

BTW (none / 0)

How did Katherine Harris make Josh Marshall's Conscience Caucus list? How did Denny Rehberg???

Well, I must say, Reid is much more effective than I expected. He's definitely more to the right than most of us, but he is damn good at the "sausage" stuff. It's good to have a leader who's actually making sure we're united on things! I wonder if Frist can keep Chafee and/or Smith from crossing over on this one without paying them off.

by raginillinoian on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 11:24:41 AM EST

florida (none / 0)

kat harris is on the list because she is a rep from florida.  all those eldery voters there are going to hold accountable anyone who votes for destroying social security.
Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 11:29:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The 'Tax-Reform' Connection--Getting A Jump (3.00 / 2)

It seems very likely that the GOP will shift more and more to trying to combine a Social Security plan with  a major restructuring of the tax code--such as pushing a regressive VAT tax.

This is one place we can get a jump on them and move our agenda instead. We should call for reinstating the estate tax, and devoting it entirely to supplementing the Social Security fund, along with an increase in upper limit of taxable Social Security income.  These two sources alone could virtually close the projected funding gap--which, we should always point out--is based on pessimistic economic projections.

by Paul Rosenberg on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 11:30:19 AM EST

Re: The 'Tax-Reform' Connection--Getting A Jump (none / 0)

Exactly. This is the perfect example of your biggest problem being your best opportunity. The old Chinese expression and all that.

There are any number of ways to take advantage of the situation. First, Bush and GOPers are quoting Clinton and Sperling, his economic advisor. So introduce Clinton's plan to preserve Social Security. Bush wants to be bi-partisan and all that good stuff. Let him agree to a bill investing 15% of the S.S. surplus into a dedicated investment pool. Put the rest into a lock-box that is segregated from the so called "unified budget" so Bush and the GOPers can't give the surplus away as tax cuts or corporate welfare.

Second, call Bush on his support for retirement enhancement. Instead of extending his tax cuts,
propose a Thrift Savings Plan for all Americans, just like the federal program. Force Bush to make a choice between the top 10% and the bottom 90%.

Third, attack the estate tax the same way. Put Bush in the position of supporting the estate tax or funding Medicare. Medicare is a far worse problem than Social Security. Bush and the GOPers made it and the budget deficit worse with their Medicare prescription drug bill. Force Bush and the GOPers to choose between corporate welfare for Big Pharma or reducing the unfunded Medicare liabilities. A bill to allow drug importation from Canada and allow Medicare to negotiate group drug prices the same way the V.A. does.

The stupid Dems need to introduce wedge legislation that puts Bush on the spot with his base. If the boneheads let Dean become DNC Chair he can scream the message from the rooftops that Bush hates working Americans.

God save the Democratic party from sensible centrists that have a fetish for date rape.

by Gary Boatwright on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 12:55:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

BAN RUSSO!!! (none / 0)

just kidding...

"with $100M... behind it"... and how much of that is tax-payer money?
n

Invest in nature
by NCDem on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 11:47:53 AM EST

Re: BAN RUSSO!!! (none / 0)

None of it. Bush may be channeling some government money from other sources. I had a link the other day to funding sources for the $100  million. It's coming from wealthy CATO contributors and their allies, the Natl. Assoc. Mfg, Wall Street, the Chamber and small business groups who are afraid of another 2% tax hike in S.S.

They have a monstrous and wealthy coalition. The PR campaign will be something to watch.

by Gary Boatwright on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 01:09:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Here's the diary (none / 0)

Bush declares war on Social Security with links to Progress for America which is a group set up by Compass

"Derrick Max, coordinator of the Washington-based Coalition for the Modernization and Protection of America's Social Security (COMPASS).

"It's a very burdensome tax," said Max, who is also the executive director of the Alliance for Worker Retirement Security, a group of 40 businesses and associations founded by the National Association of Manufacturers"

by Gary Boatwright on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 01:28:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Here's one link (none / 0)

From the Alliance for Worker Retirement Security. Which I found linked to this National Assoc. Mfg site on Social Security.

There's another coalition that I can't find yet that has the acronym COMMON or something.

by Gary Boatwright on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 01:19:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Here's one link (none / 0)

"Alliance for Worker Retirement Security" caught my eye when going over the GOP Playbook for Social Security.  It was listed under the heading "Social Security Resource Document" (p. 16) along with such non-partisan public-policy outfits as the Cato Institute, the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute.

I naturally wondered what an organization called the "Alliance for Worker Retirement Security" was doing among such august company.  Turns out it's a business group composed of such noted authorities on worker welfare as the National Association of Manufacturers, the National Federation of Independent Business, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Restaurant Association.

This is just like one of those Smokers' Rights organizations run by the tobacco companies.

Independent Illinois Grassroots: IllinoisDemNet.com
by patachon on Thu Feb 03, 2005 at 02:33:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good Post Chris. (none / 0)

Dare we use the term "big picture"? As a young man, I've noticed that certain things resonate more with my age group than with the Boomers.

  1. Promise and prelis of technological development.

  2. Relative decline of America

  3. Ecology, especially population growth and resource depletion.

I guess if you are in your 50's or older, you figure you'll be dead before such things take their toll.
by Paul Goodman on Wed Feb 02, 2005 at 03:33:38 PM EST


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