New Democratic Leadership Will Move Deficit Talk To the Fore

Last week I wrote about deficit politics, when I argued that it accrued little, if any, political capital for Democrats (the idea had actually been planted in my head by Andy Stern when we talked, a couple weeks ago). There were lots of interesting comments in the discussion, and since that time there have been many good diaries on the subject (including Curt Matlock's from today, and Steve in Sacto's in direct response to my post). One of the more interesting comments I received came to me over email from Bill at Liberal Oasis:
I wrote a paper in college about 10 years ago, analyzing the role of the deficit in the '92 elections. Basically, attacking the deficit typically doesn't help score political points -- it's too abstract, it's not clear how it impacts people's lives. (Dukakis got no traction out of it, for example).

But it is a symbol of mismanagement and incompetence. And if the economy is in a downturn, as it was in 1992, it's an easy thing to point to as evidence that the government is handling the economy poorly (even though the correlation between the two is not necessarily that direct).

Right now, the economy isn't seen to be as bad as it was in 1992, making deficit attacks of limited, short-term, value. However, there is long-term value, to solidify the notion that Dems are more fiscally responsible. We went through a whole decade of people believing the opposite in the 1980s, and it's lot easier to have the upper hand here. When the economy hits the next rough patch, Dems will be very well positioned.

2. But you're right that to just make the deficit attack, without coupling it with a liberal argument for responsible, responsive government, leaves Dems vulnerable to "small government" arguments. I think you have to hit these cuts too, make it clear who is being hurt, make it clear that the tax cuts are to blame. Being fiscally responsible cuts two ways: not running up debt, and not screwing over the people.

I talked about how we need to approach Bush's budget cuts back in Dec., in this post: http://www.liberaloasis.com/archives/121904.htm#122304

I generally agree with this, although now that the era of small government is over and the nation is quite receptive to a positive articulation of the role of government, I think that it will be even less effective than usual. Thus, although I admit deficit talk should have some place in the broader Democratic political attack against Republicans, I would still like to see it decentralized at a line of attack. Unfortunately, the DCCC new chair, Rahm Emanuel, disagrees:
To those who see a parallel between the Clintons' ill-fated health-care plan and Bush's hara-kiri over Social Security, Emanuel cautions that defeating Bush's plan may not mean nirvana for Democrats. Back then, the country was clamoring for health care and punished Clinton with the loss of the House and Senate when he didn't deliver. Now, polls show people don't want a radical overhaul of Social Security, so they may not punish Bush if he doesn't deliver.

The budget is another matter. The revelation this week about the exploding costs of Medicare hurt Bush's credibility and makes his estimates on the costs of private accounts suspect. His entire budget is a work of fiction. "It's the mendacity budget--deceitful and meaningless," says Marshall Wittmann, a senior fellow at the Democratic Leadership Conference, home to centrist Democrats. Deceitful because it leaves out the cost of the ongoing war in Iraq and Afghanistan, omits the cost of fixing a glitch in the tax code with the Alternative Minimum Tax that will cost billions and includes no mention of the transitional trillion for Bush's Social Security plan. Meaningless because it's an exercise in futility; it's going nowhere.

It is hard to tell how much of this strategy is Emanuel and how much is Clift, but not being big into deficit politics, I disagree with it no matter whose idea it is. I mean, for the love of God, please tell me we are not going to run on reducing the deficit yet again! During the campaign, I thought one of Kerry's biggest platform weaknesses was repeatedly saying that he would roll back taxes on the top 1% (a good and popular idea--attack greed), so that he could help reduce the budget deficit (way too abstract--does anyone really care?). Why take a popular idea and then declare you will use it to pay for an abstraction that does not offer an apparent, direct improvement on people's lives? It makes Democrats look detached and out of touch. What Kerry should have done is say he would roll back tax cuts on the top 1% so that he could improve people's lives by reducing the cost of health care, improving day care and public schools, and to protect Social Security from irresponsible Republicans.

The notion that we should move in 2006 to punish Bush for his mendacity and irresponsibility is fine with me, but I remain firmly of the belief that campaigning on his mendacity and irresponsibility over the budget deficit is, at best, weak and ineffectual politics. I would prefer if we called Bush a liar and irresponsible when it comes to people's actual lives, not red tape. It is thus very distressing to see us walking down this path yet again. Both Dean and Emanuel are good leadership choices for the netroots, but I worry that their over-emphasis on bookkeeping abstractions will prevent us from providing a compelling economic agenda that will really excite the nation and help to carve out a new Democratic majority.

Remember that Democrats do not just need to be viewed as the fiscally responsible party, but as the party of good planning and wise investment that leads to broad prosperity and a better future. After all, some version of "broad prosperity" and "better future" should be four words of the ten-word Democratic elevator pitch ("better future" should be the two-word Democratic pitch). Broad prosperity and a better future are created through good planning, but good planning is not encapsulated by balancing the books alone. Similarly, being responsible does not mean you are a good planner in and of itself. People need to believe you are not only responsible, but that you have a vision that will help improve their lives. If we talk too much about the deficit, we may come off as responsible, but also as uncaring, disconnected, and out of touch.



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Oops .. Deleted (none / 0)

The link to my "NY Times Traces Debt Explosion Under Republicans" diary is broken because I deleted the copy here at MyDD after they main paged it at Kos. You can still check it out over there. I assumed most people here check out Kos too and I didn't want other diaries here at MyDD to roll off before their time.

by Curt Matlock on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 06:18:57 PM EST

Re: Oops .. Deleted (none / 0)

I appreciate your concern for other diarists, but please take commenters into account as well. Your diary had, I believe, four comments on it (or maybe I'm thinking of a different diary).

Anyway, I'll fix the link. Thanks for your diary, however.

by Chris Bowers on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 08:03:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Deleting Diaries (none / 0)

I recently saw a diary somewhere complaining about people who delete diaries with comments on them because the commenters lose their posts. That made sense and I do agree with that and was considering that when I deleted. But I'm kicking myself now that you linked to it in your post (thanks!).

The copy of my diary here only had one comment on it when I deleted it unless I missed something. Paul Rosenberg had an informative comment that is getting rated up over at dKos. But in his comment here at MyDD he said that he'd also posted it over at dKos so I thought it was safe to delete the diary with just the one redundant comment.

I'm a little uncertain about the etiquette of posting diaries at both places anyways. I see alot of people do it and don't mind it myself but I have wondered if the practice is discouraged. If it is please let me know. I actually expected the copy at dKos to just scroll off quickly without much notice and I was hoping to get some more focused commentary here.

Anyway, sorry about the confusion.

by Curt Matlock on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 09:10:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Democrats need to tie (none / 0)

Deficits and largesse to the robber barron theme of the ultra wealthy getting filthy rich on the backs of working americans.

And talk of taxes being an investment ,and if invested sensibly, benefitting everyone, rather than just welfare for the rich.

there is a growing resentment of these CEO's and corporations raking in the billions while simultaneously cutting and gutting wages and benefits, and sending jobs overseas.

In politics you need a bad guy, and it is bad tactics ot make the other party the bad guy directly.

The Reps made gays the bad guy, muslims, arabs terrorists etc.

We need ot make the corporate fat cats the bad guys and then all the progressive themese flow from that.

by Pounder on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 06:22:11 PM EST

you're right Chris (none / 0)

When i read your critique of Kerry's position on reducing the debt, I wondered if voters would have thought he understands their problems if he had argued for increased spending in day care, health care, aid to the states etc.
by KDMfromPhila on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 06:29:14 PM EST

Didn't Kerry run on all of the above? (3.00 / 1)

I must respectfully dissent from Chris Bower's view that Kerry got a few votes as he did (59 million) because he over emphasized the deficit, or conversely underplayed the aforementioned day care, health care, aid to the states etc. I would argue that he got as many votes as he did, and that the election was as close as it was because he offered a contrast to Bush on the economy.

It simply happened to be that Bush probably got at least 3% (at least) because of 9/11 and his incumbent status. If you accept that non-controversial premise, then you have enough to explain the difference victory and the change between 2000 and 2004.

What may have prevented Kerry from clinching the deal with those who long for the return of Clintonomics was the widespread belief that Kerry (a la Chris Bowers and Democrats generally) was only mouthing the words but didn't really believe them.

Such as it was on abortion, Iraq, immigration, marriage, and a host of other issues. The only issues where you KNEW, absolutely KNEW that Kerry meant what he said were Social Security and Government Health Care, both not coincidentally are socialist, big-government programs.

One good thing about Dean is that he really does care about balancing the books. His thesis, as well as mine, is that you cannot preserve the welfare state unless you balance the books. Don't you feel like dupes when you fall into the traps of such people as Grover Norquist? Grover (what a name!) KNOWS that if the government precipitates fiscal crisis via debt spending, he can finally get rid of FDR's hated welfare state. Is that what you want? Or are you going to follow the leadership of Howard Dean and resolve that the People, yes even the precious, sacred, almighty "People" should live within their means?

by Paul Goodman on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 08:20:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Framing mendacity and irresponsibility (none / 0)

Bush's "mendacity and irresponsibility" has been across the board, they have lied to the American people on every single issue.

And they continue to get away with it because the corporate mass media plays the debate on these issues as pure and equivalent party partisanship and NEVER reports the factual points supporting the Democratic side arguments with any more fidelity to the truth than do the GOP.

The situation is far worse than people seem to realize when they think our problem comes down to just getting the issues framed right for the next election.

by leschwartz on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 06:29:38 PM EST

"Mendacity" (none / 0)

Umm, if we're going to develop this theme perhaps we ought to use words that average people use around the water cooler.  Maybe Luntz can poll test some words for us because I don't think "anti-mendacity" will be a populist rallying cry...
by Steve in Sacto on Mon Feb 14, 2005 at 03:01:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Deficits Today... (none / 0)

It's true that if the Dems sit around and ponder how  to describe why deficit spending is bad, it might not be persuasive.

Don't forget however, in 1992 that infamous debate in Richmond, VA where the young lady turned to Bush Sr. and said, "how has this recession affected you?"

That's the point. We have to make it clear that deficits ensure taxation will rise in the future and so will inflation.

When the Republicans downplay deficits, that is the cue for the Democrats to remind everyone deficits today mean higher taxes and inflation tomorrow.

by risenmessiah on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 06:49:13 PM EST

Getting rid of tax cuts to fund programs (none / 0)

Did Howard Dean have that as part of his platform when he was running for President?
http://www.carolforcongress.com
by nhselectwoman on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 07:04:53 PM EST

Impact of the deficit (none / 0)

In addition to the incompetence angle, it's important to note that whenever Clinton talked about the deficit, he also talked about high interest rates and crowding out investment. At the convention he talked about how China and Japan hold all our bonds. So while the deficit by itself is not a winning political issue, pointing out that the deficit risks economic strife of all sorts is a political winner.
by niq on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 07:08:46 PM EST

I teach 18 year olds about the deficit (none / 0)

And though I am usually considered a pretty good lecturer this is a topic that makes their eyes glaze over.  It is both:

  • boring to the point of brain damage

  • contrary to their personal experience that they run deficits on their credit cards and nothing bad happens

I am in total agreement with your contention that deficits per se are a losing argument.  Much better to openly wage class warfare (while noting that they started it and we are just fighting back) by saying - "Bush would rather give tax cuts to millionaires than food to poor children"  "Bush would rather give tax cuts to millionaires than fix our schools"  "Bush would rather give tax cuts to millionaires than buy body armor for our troops.

etc etc.  - If we dont put it terms that enable people to see how THEY are hurt then we have not helped ourselves at all.  "Deficits are BAAAAAD" is ok as talking point number 38 but not as a bumper sticker or front line theme.

by sck5 on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 07:27:07 PM EST

There is another meaning to "victory" (none / 0)

Sure, you can have "the people" on your side. You know, the ones whos eyes glaze over at the first mention of numbers (or letters). How reliable are they? Will riling them up accomplish what you imagine? Would they prefer to "vote" rather than "die"?

Another way to victory is to win over the elite consensus, such as the free traders and capitalists have. The populace always wants a free lunch, why then was NAFTA passed in the 90s? Why was the budget balanced in the 90s? Why was a rising tide lifting all boats in the 90s? Did the populace suddenly reach an epiphany? Or did the levers of government suddenly fall into responsible hands?

Obviously, Keynes is in and Friedman is out even with the Republicans. Of course, they wish ultimately to "starve the beast", which is why "deficits don't matter." They win either way.

As Dean points out, one cannot have a safety net unless one can finance it. In the Dean frenzy, are people actually hearing what he says?

by Paul Goodman on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 07:37:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I teach 18 year olds about the deficit (none / 0)

Deficits are bad is not resonating with the people RIGHT NOW.

But it has. When Perot ran on fiscal responsibility and garnered more than 20% of the vote.

Why was is successful then?

Because he has credibility as a business man.

He didnt sound partisan (like democrats do when they complain about it).

Because interest rates were much higher AS A CONSEQUENCE of the deficits.

Its not the deficit. Its the consequences of building up such a deficit that is ACTUALLY FELT by the people.

My narrative would be:

Democrats: the party fighting for ordinary people, truth (as a moral value and as in science), social justice, equal opportunity, holding government, businesses and individuals accountable

 

by MarcTGFG on Mon Feb 14, 2005 at 11:53:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Even Big Government (3.00 / 2)

needs to balance the books, no? You can raise taxes to do so if you don't like to cut spending, no? Funny thing is, when times are good, people feel they don't need the government. Right now we are borrowing a trillion a year essentially to feel good. In that psychological milieu can any sensible, progressive thing be accomplished? When the people are being lulled to sleep, is that good for liberalism? Or does liberlism require an alert, responsible polity?

I would argue that a patriot would prefer to shield his countrymen from the terrible results of their own foolishness. Borrowing trillions in order to buy toys from China is foolish. I prefer to protect my country. Perhaps you would like them to "learn the hard way"?

by Paul Goodman on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 07:27:09 PM EST

deficit important (none / 0)

"Tax and spend liberals" indeed!

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by nwprogressive on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 07:29:12 PM EST

magnitude of the problem (3.00 / 1)

Chris, the main difference in talking about the deficit currently (as opposed to previous elections) is the deficit's magnitude. All talk without discussing the magnitude of the deficit doesn't have bite.

If W pushes through everything he wants in the budget and tax cuts, we have a major economic problem. If the democrats are in control 2008-2012-2016, that "control" may just mean managing our debt as opposed to the freedom to finance our favorite programs.

With W's tax cuts, the general fund (US national debt) will be around $16 trillion dollars in 10 years. Add $2 to $4 trillion more for SS reform (depending on what actually gets enacted).

Some comparisons are in order.

The total market capitalization of all US companies (Wilshire 5000) is $13.5 trillion. So W will leave us with a debt similar to the discounted value of all future profits of all US companies.

W will be leave us in a state where by 2015, we will be borrowing close to $600 billion per year of bonds in the open markets just to finance the general fund (over and above the annual $300 billion of Social security surplus which is financing W's discretionary spending).  Currently the US is attracting 80% of all cross-country debt financing.  This can't continue. China, with an anual GDP of 1.4 trillion dollars can't finance us alone. Japan who's managing it's own bloated national debt won't be able to continue to lend us money. Europeans are royally pissed at us and have stopped lending us money cold turkey (and will have pension problems of their own).  In short, we will have some drasatic changes to feed the federal deficit that we're left with.

With a $16 trillion dollar debt (with an average duration less than 5 years), we will be rolling that debt over to bonds paying 4-5% interest (hopefully no more). That's 650-800 billion per year.  Needless to say, without that, we could fund a lot of programs. With that annual interest payment, we may not be able to fund necessary programs.

We're not talking about $100 billion here or there like in past election cycles. This is a whole different ballgame.

by zigzig on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 10:50:05 PM EST

The Narrative (none / 0)

I think things like this work or don't work depending on how they fit into a larger narrative, and establishing the narrative in the public mind is what is important.  You have to establish that narrative, or framework, and THEN fit pieces into it.

And I think you can't break down a narrative with contradicting facts.

Here's where I'm going with this.  We nominated Kerry basically for one reason - war hero.  We were trying to break down the Republican narrative that Democrats are wimpy on defense - even somehow traitorous.  But it didn't work, and in fact they were able to use the Swift Boats to fit Kerry back into their narrative.  This is because Dems nominating a war hero didn't fit into any pre-existing narrative so it didn't reinforce anything the public believed.  So it had no power.

Someone commented above about "tax and spend liberals."  Well that is a narrative, or frame, that has been established.  So now, anything that reinforces that frame is believed and anything that doesn't - Bush's deficits - is largely ignored because it doesn't matter.

Look at all the work the Republicans have put into establishing these narratives, and then pounding them with :facts" that support the narrative.  They don't even have to be true and they still work.  (I remember the story about Clinton selling cemetary plots in Arlington Cemetary turning out to be a hoax - a proven lie - and one reporter saying it was still OK to repeat it "because it was like something Clinton would do.")

So if we first work to establish a narrative about Republicans that these deficits would fit into, that would be much more effective.  

-- Seeing the Forest
by davej on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 11:58:11 PM EST

Kerry did exactly as you said he should (3.00 / 1)

I don't know how many times I heard him say that he would roll back Bush's tax cut on the wealthy in order to pay for his health care proposal.
by chuck19 on Mon Feb 14, 2005 at 09:08:49 AM EST

My response a Dkos diary (none / 0)

Go visit it: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/2/14/112754/874.

Shorter Brian: we need to reframe the debate to use smaller numbers.  $25,000 (the per-person federal debt) is a lot easier to understand.

by bhurtaw on Mon Feb 14, 2005 at 11:31:57 AM EST

It hink it still works (none / 0)

Every family, person, balances their budget and understand debt and that they should spend within their means.  Thus fiscal responsibility is one marker for government's competence.  
by jasmine on Mon Feb 14, 2005 at 12:05:52 PM EST


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