Swing Voters Becoming a Myth

Over at Donkey Rising, Ruy Teixeira discusses the findings of the University of Michigan's American National Election Study. Its conclusions are unmistakeable (emphasis mine):
Republicans gave Kerry a mean score of 32 - six points worse than the score of 38 McGovern received from GOP identifiers in 1972 - and 14 points worse than the score Gore received from Republicans four years earlier. This is the first example of intensified partisanship, and it provides a more nuanced understanding of Kerry's overall thermometer score - Kerry was the least liked Democrat ever, in the brief history of presidential thermometers, among Republican identifiers. There are some future precincts in New Hampshire and Iowa where that might qualify as a badge of honor.

But if Kerry was the least liked Democrat among rival party followers, George W Bush did him one better in 2004. Bush emerged as the least liked opposition-party presidential candidate, ever, of either major party. Democratic identifiers bestowed upon Bush a mean score of 29 - - a full 12 points lower than the score Democrats gave him four years earlier.

The larger story here is that in 2004, Democratic and Republican identifiers appeared more dramatically polarized than at any time in the past 36 years. The normal respect reserved for American leaders of the opposition party seems to have eroded nearly completely among followers of both major parties. What distinguishes this particular circumstance is its partisan symmetry. Hostility toward the leader of the opposition party is mutually shared by Democrats and Republicans alike. The implications are also magnified by the nearly identical sizes of these blocs of partisan voters (48% Democratic, 47% Republican).

The final bit of data that goes some distance toward explaining Bush's relative advantage over Kerry in terms is also unprecedented. Of all the candidates who secured their parties' nominations since 1968, George W Bush was the candidate most revered by his own party. His mean score of 84 surpassed even Reagan's 1984 thermometer of 78 among Republican identifiers. And in so doing, Bush also bested the previous high rating for candidates from their partisan followers, Bill Clinton's mark of 80 from Democrats in 1996. In 2004, Kerry attained ratings from Democrats that were typical. Bush generated ratings from Republicans that set records.

Whatever the reasons, the middle is dead. After the flight of the Dixiecrats, the possibility of significant crossover from either party is now dead. Kerry lost this election primarily because the Bush campaign recognized this from the start and thus had the better strategy: rev up and turn out the base. We spent way too much time going after the mythical middle, and I say this from a strategic rather than an ideological standpoint. This is a mistake we cannot make again.



Display:


Will you go one step further Chris (none / 0)

Daschel and Gephardt attempted to steer the Democratic party course as mainstream centrists.

Pelosi in my view treated the results of the 2004 election as a similar call for moderation of Democratic views which differ from the aparent election results, a presumption of support for Bush and his policies.

Roemer and his criticism that Democrats are intolerant on abortion.

Kerry and his view that Bush policies in Iraq should be continued and supported, rejecting the oppsition voices which question the Bush policies, Kennedy for one.

Feinstein speaking in support of C. Rice for Secretary of State, someone who lied repeatedly to the American people including lying to congression committies.

What have we democrats got from attempting to compromise with Bush and the GOP?

Are you able at this point to advocate at this point a tooth and nail fight against every element of the Bush agenda?

by leschwartz on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:10:15 PM EST

Re: Will you go one step further Chris (3.00 / 1)

I don't think think the Democrats have really reached out to the Bush administration at all. Look at the SOTU adress by Bush. That was right up the middle. The Democrats should pick out some things that they can work with the republicans like alternative energy and tort reform on and save the opposition for the big stuff. I would consider the big stuff to be social security and the budget. Pick their fights. Offer alternative legislation so that the people can see an alternative not just "obstruction," the republican frame for stubborn opposition.
by Christopher Hitchens on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:34:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Right up the middle of WHAT? (none / 0)

Define what you consider "the middle."
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:39:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will you go one step further Chris (none / 0)

Only a dye in the wool Republican would think the Bush GOP SOTU agenda was down the middle you don't know fascism when you are drowning in a sea of it.
by leschwartz on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:41:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My foolish ideological friends (none / 0)

go into an American living room and start talking about tort reform etc. They won't gasp as you do. They will nod, and say "OK". The Administration is changing speeds in order to trap the democrats for 2006. Period. Deny that at your own risk.
by Paul Goodman on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 02:24:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will you go one step further Chris (none / 0)

Tort reform?

Alternative energy?

The GOP thinks alternative energy is drilling in a new place like ANWR. Tort reform to them is you can't sue, only we can sue...

And they aren't stupid... they get it. They won't hold out any compromises on non-essential issues until the fat boys get taken care of first... SS, Income Tax 'Reform', Health care insurance deductability, etc.

The answer right now for Dems is to 'Just say No' unless the issue parallels EXACTLY what we would do anyway... make the GOP govern for once... see how they like making tough decisions.

by dryfly on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:50:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will you go one step further Chris (none / 0)

One thing he said that does make sense is to offer alternative plans...We should block the Bush agenda, but we should also have a plan of our own...  Don't just say something is messed up; offer a solution.  Obviously this doesn't work with everything but it will for a majority of legislation.  And we need to GO PUBLIC with our plans...Be loud, proud and vocal.
by yitbos96bb on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:44:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If there was one thing Kerry offered, it was plans (none / 0)

That website literally had tens of thousands of pages of policy proposals. Some on web pages. Some downloadable pdfs. Kerry definitely had the content part of the campaign down pat. Even my wonky butt couldn't keep up with it all.
by afs on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:47:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If there was one thing Kerry (none / 0)

Well killing them with plans was not what I had in mind.  1 consensus plan for each of the key issues.  Kerry had a book, we need plans with an easy synopsis.  I respect the level of detail he put out, But in this day of short attention spans, headlines and soundbites...that just doesn't work well.  
by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 09:40:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will you go one step further Chris (none / 0)

I agree with the above.  That is so completely out of left field, I really don't even know how to respond.  Can you amplify your comments?
by descrates on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:52:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will you go one step further Chris (none / 0)

All we fucking did was cooperate with the Republicans from 2000-2004, and they rewarded us by questioning our patriotism and our values in the 2002 election--even after what the country went through on September 11th. Fuck them.
by Covin on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:56:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will you go one step further Chris (3.00 / 0)

I agree in principle that the going after the middle strategy was a waste of time.   However, I don't think we should overreach on this basis.  We still need to maintain a mainstream liberalism.  Going full bore Nadar won't get us elected either.  

And though I agree it was a waste, I seriously question whether we would have won anyway.  It still seems to me that in 51/48.5 election, there had to have been a middle that choose Bush.  It just makes sense.  I myself knew several undecided voters right up to election day.  9/11, decided their votes long before they ever did.

by descrates on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:57:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

When did Dean go "full-bore Nader?' (none / 0)

No Democrats has indicated plans to go "full-bore" Nader, not even Kucinich or Sharpton.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:36:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think your being too literal (none / 0)

I'm saying base-oriented campaigning doesn't necessarily mean we have a license to move out of the main stream.  In fact, to a certain extent we already have, i.e. abortion.
by descrates on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:47:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wrong. Issue surveys STRONGLY favor Dems (none / 0)

The Dems have the electorate on their side in huge majorities when only issues are considered.

The problem on that is there are massive numbers of people who incorrectly think that conservatives are supportive of liberal issues. All that compassionate conservative crud caused that.

by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:52:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree that the public favors it (none / 0)

but not nearly to the extent we push it.  The public are not comfortable with the virtually unlimited and unregulated access even minors have to abortion.  This makes us seem extreme to even moderates on this issue.  If anything I believe this issue more than any other has polarized the electorate.
by descrates on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We don't push it. The far right pushes it (none / 0)

Anything we do on the issue of choice is a reaction to far right extremism.
by afs on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:12:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We don't push it. The far right pushes it (3.00 / 1)

Yeah right. :)

I think there's probably a bit more give and take then all that.  My guess is that they would say the same thing.

by descrates on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:23:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No... there isn't. (2.00 / 0)

If you had been any part of Democratic politics in the last 20 years, you would know this.
by afs on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:31:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Well (3.00 / 0)

I guess your right then. :)
by descrates on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:33:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think your being too literal (none / 0)

Um how are we out of the mainstream on abortion?  Almost every major poll out over the last 5 years shows a majority of Americans as pro-choice.  We are not out of the mainstream on abortion...now that being said, if we adopted a platform similiar to what Hillary suggested, abortion being legal and safe, but our goal is to have 0 in this country...we do that through education, not faschist tactics, we could probably attract some more people to the fold.
by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 09:45:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will you go one step further Chris (3.00 / 1)

I don't think going after the middle was a waste of time per se, but it just didn't work because of the following:

  1. Post 9/11 terror environment, the war, and encumbent president who is strong on these. Public instinctively rallies around a president in wartime.

  2. Kerry had the war and foreign policy credentials, but also a senator from a liberal state with a voting record easily smeared and mischaracterized

  3. Strong pull within the party in the primaries towards the base. Kerry's attempts to appeal to the base to assure turn-out and stoke Bush antipathy while straddling moderate policy positions to appeal to the center made him look like a flip-flopper; muddled the message.

It's extraordinarily difficult to appeal to the anti-war base and the center within such a political environment. I agree on your feelings regarding the election results. It was a catch-22 for Kerry: post-2000 turn-out was critical so appealing to the base was mandatory, but as a MA liberal he had to de-Dukakisize himself and assure the middle he could handle the war and terrorism as well as Bush who polls so strong there. It was a herculean effort but not enough.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:41:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

There is no middle ground in US politics anymore. (none / 0)

You need to accept that reality.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:46:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sure there is (none / 0)

The problem is, we've allowed ourselves to be painted as out of the mainstream by republicans.  Chiefly i think this has been done through abortion.  Our stance on this is clearly out of the mainstream.  And we don't allow for high-profile dissenter on this matter like the GOP allows for Guiliani and Arnold to be.  
by descrates on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:55:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Looks like YOU are the one with abortion focus (none / 0)

The far right has NEVER been able to even break 40% public support of it's agenda. It looks like you are the one that's focusing on that one issue.
by afs on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:15:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Erk? (none / 0)

You of course meant to say that we don't have anyone willing to look like a  "high level dissenter" who can the be ignored for the next 3.5 years.

Instead we have "Whine to the op-ed" Roemer.

by ElitistJohn on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:24:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah I pretty much agree with all of that (3.00 / 1)

It was virtually impossible.  Maybe if the swiftboat liars hadn't been so successful, we might have had a chance, but I agree, Kerry had everything but Iraq moving against him.   It shows how vulnerable Bush was that we only lost by about two points.
by descrates on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:51:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah I pretty much agree with all of that (3.00 / 1)

Yes, the fact that the swift boat liars were successful really makes me mad. I'm a veteran myself and found their smear tactics absolutely disgusting. It runs counter to everything about military comraderie. You just don't shoot fellow servicemembers in the back, and that's what they basically did. They should have done the honorable thing and stayed out of it, but they just couldn't resist a 30 year grudge.

I can take a loss and being outvoted in a democracy, but it's really hard to swallow the fact that these kinds of dirty tactics can be effective.

I watched Going Upriver and read books about Kerry and I admire the man. He proved his character with the way he lived his life, and that was enough for me to vote for him to be my president.

http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:13:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah I pretty much agree with all of that (3.00 / 1)

I felt the same way about Kerry and for all his faults KNOW he would have been a better president than the one that was elected. That's why I believe one of highest priorities must be fixing the communication gap by developing a Democratic Noise Machine. Not that the DNM needs to be the same as the RNM but it better at least be equally effective.

And yes, I read the article. lol

by Curt Matlock on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:25:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah I pretty much agree with all of that (3.00 / 0)

Could not agree more...Get the infrastructure in place should be the biggest priority of Dean.  This includes the Blogs (which despite what the threaten media feels are having an impact as a noise machine) and the grassroots organizations.  We need to find the papers with liberal bias (there are some out their just as there are many with a conservative bias) and give them unfettered access to our group.  We need to push air america to all 50 states.  We need to develop a Liberal news channel...that is informative and entertaining.  I used to watch Dennis Miller, not because i agreed with his politics, but the fact he entertained me.  John Stewart, Chris Rock, Al Franken, are perfect hosts for TV shows on the format.  We need to get Young Dems on college campuses...Start with all the state ones and the big private ones...This will be another of your grassroots component.  These young dems in exchange for their campaign help etc, should be given the opportunity for internships, leadership seminars etc...prepare these kids to run for local offices in a few years and grow your farm system...Start them young and they should stay loyal if they see success.  
by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 09:55:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah I pretty much agree with all of that (none / 0)

It's amazing how money and power can wipe out the best of friendships.  The SBVFT sold their souls and their honor.  
by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 09:48:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And it shows (none / 0)

how good of a job Kerry did. Everyone knew the election was going to be close. On Nov. 1st did you think Kerry had a chance to pull it off? Sure you did. He ran a great campaign. The problem is our stupid fellow citizens. The right wing media revels in the anti-intellectualism of Americans. I don't. If Americans want to continue to cut their own throats, I'm not going to stop them. Let them feel the pain of their decisions.
by Paul Goodman on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 02:28:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

huh? (2.00 / 1)

So if you think a base turnout strategy was the way to go....what majority base is that???   This is almost meaningless to say, and reminds me of the "hidden liberal majority" fantasy, as well as the nonvoter fantasy ("If we could just turn them out.....)

We need a persuasion strategy.   Persuasion.   We need to do 10 different things.  There is no strategic or tactical one-phrase cure-all.  ("More grassroots action!" "More passion!" "More Attacking!")  I'm worried you're just setting up another unproductive debate here.

And if you're going to talk about the middle in this way, you have to say who you think the middle is and what appeals to them.   You think there is NO middle?  That there's no difference among all the people who aren't partisan Republicans?  

Please, not another thread where people mindlessly say, "yeah, it's all this pandering to the middle that's killing us..."   No, it's that we don't have anything to say to the middle....or the left....or the right.   Yet.  

by Andmoreagain on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:21:42 PM EST

Re: huh? (none / 0)

I agree. Democrats need a message that resonates with most Americans. That's the real problem here. Get a message and communicate it over the next 3 years. What do democrats stand for?
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:27:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Stop ranting for a minute and read the article. (2.00 / 1)

Maybe you'll learn something while you catch your breath between tirades.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:32:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Everyone listen up! (2.00 / 1)

"Vote Hillary" represents and can speak for most Americans!

Hey, can you tell me what everyone will be investing in this year?

by ElitistJohn on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:20:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: huh? (3.00 / 1)

Every attempt to use persuasion within your opponents frame will fail, especially when they own the media and they are in control of all branches of government.

The only hope we have of turning this situation around is to oppose every single bill and agrument they put forward.

As a minority party we can not get bills to the floor unless they want them there.

We can only define what we stand for many times by opposing what they want to accomplish and by redefining the way the issues is framed.

We also have to be totally united and we have to enforce parlimentary discipline across the board, we can not afford the luxury of having each office holder vote his own way and offer his own preferred solution because when you do that you are labelled as opportunists and as having no guiding principles in government.

Stating it simply you can persuade these bastards and you can't compromise with them, you can't shame them into right action becuase they care much more for power than anything else and that is why this nation is decending into fascism.

This situation is hopless untill we learn to fight them tooth and nail on every issue and until we have a united opposition against every thing they say they stand for and every proposal they put forward.

You would think by now people would realize that we are living in a sea of propaganda and that attmepts to pursuade from our side havn't been working.

by leschwartz on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:35:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

40-20-40 Win the 20 by at least 10.02 to 9.98 (3.00 / 1)

Very thought provoking post. I've been thinking about the middle also and see the electorate as 40D-20I-40R. Win the middle 20 with persuasion and turn out your own 40 to win the election.

Assume base turnout roughly rounded to 40% who are either reliably anti-Republican or Democratic. We write off the 40% anti-Democratic and Republican voters and fight them politically for every inch of ideological turf.

We must struggle to win over the middle 20% and turnout the secure 40%.

To win the middle 20% you absolutely do not have to be Republican Lite although giving ground on certain issues may be part of winning the middle. As several posters in this thread are noting you have to persuade this portion. Many "moderates" say you cannot persuade this 20% with a liberal message. They advocate adopting Republican points to win this 20% because that is the "moderate" course. I completely disagree.

They assume that the middle 20% is moderate because they do not strongly identify with either party. That is an assumption that is as much a guess as my assertion that we can win that 20% by strongly advocating liberal ideas. But not any liberal ideas ... just the ones we believe in and are willing to defend and fight for.

Of course as Andmoreagain says, we must understand who the 20% are and what their lives are like if we are to sell our ideas to them. We have alot of work to do to understand what constituencies and subgroups we are dealing with and how we as Democrats can make their lives better. Then we must do more work to communicate to them that we do indeed understand them and have plans to help them.

Even accepting that a majority of the middle 20% have Republican views on a particular issue the possibility remains that their minds can be changed to see it our way We can reach them with a persuasive, liberal message but we have infrastructure work to do and communication and message work to do if we are to reach that goal.

by Curt Matlock on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:38:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

There is no middle 20%. Read the article. (none / 0)

The middleground in US politics is gone... gone due to far-right extremism and the response to that exptremism. You need to read the article. Please do not act like the far right and try to ignore facts that are inconvenient to you.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:49:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: There is no middle 20%. Read the article. (none / 0)

I read the article. Do you have nothing better to comment?
by Curt Matlock on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:13:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Read it again. (none / 0)

The article is not an opinion statement. It's well-researched and factual in nature.

Disagreeing about the content in that article is like disagreeing with Newton about gravity.

by afs on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:35:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Read it again. (3.00 / 0)

"The article" discusses the polarization evident among Democratic and Republican partisans. The temperature readings in the article are all describing voters who are self-identified as a partisan of either the Democratic or Republican parties. Those temperature readings say that partisans are more partisan than ever. Both sides love their own candidates and hate the opponents candidate more than they ever have.

In a single, stray sentence Teixeira pegs the size of the blocs at 48 to 47.

The implications are also magnified by the nearly identical sizes of these blocs of partisan voters (48% Democratic, 47% Republican).

Elsewhere you can find different numbers for the size of the Republican and Democratic blocs but assuming a hard-core of 40% support for each party is reasonable. But feel free to change the numbers in my post above to 45% to 45% hard core support and the arguments still hold. To win you must turn out your base and you must persuade the voters who do not identify with either party to see things your way.

Teixeira's article supports the decision to completely write off the Republican portion of the electorate as pointless to pursue. Teixeira points out that they are more rabidly partisan than ever so, believing that, I say that we should actively oppose them and not even try to win their votes.

We apparently have a barbell shaped distribution of voter partisanship. We have very heavy ends with a skinny middle. But there is still a middle and there certainly is a significant number of more loosely aligned Bush voters that we need to recapture.

I'd also suggest you not take Teixeira's word as gospel. I read him, respect him, and listen to him but he certainly has been wrong on important points and will be wrong again. He's smart and valuable, but he is human and you seem to be elevating him to demi-god status. He's not Newton and polling is not gravity.

Feel free to pull from the article to disagree with me but that is what I take from it.

by Curt Matlock on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 01:08:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No... a two track short/long term strategy (none / 0)

Track one...Short term strategy... get out our base for elections. You saw Reagan and Dubya sworn in twice using that strategy. It's been proven to work.

Track two... long term strategy... education of the electorate regarding the true definitions and historical context of the progressive movement in our country.

We use the little face time we get in the M$M to educate as well develop other resources to communicate with the electorate as a whole. (like DVD video mailings). We use the net, alternative media, and political ads to mobilize the base.

by afs on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 01:34:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Read it again. (none / 0)

That's a bit ignorant of a statement.  Numbers can be found to prove almost any point.  I bet their are studies refuting what this article said.  NOW, I tend to agree with the article, but to make the statement that to disagree is like disagreeing with gravity is a foolish, ignorant one.
by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 09:59:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

We normally agree, but... (none / 0)

...I guess we're going to have to agree to disagree on this.

Conservatives have worked very hard at trying to make evidence-based fact and opinion identical. If evidence and fact hold no particular weight in a discussion, then any of their faith-based pronouncements carry the same weight as the best scientific research.

Saying "numbers can be found to prove any point" is not a reasonable response to a well documented piece of evidence. If you can find numbers to prove your point, feel free to do so. Until then, this well-reasoned, well documented study holds fast. It has met the standard of meeting the tests the scientific method provides in seperating truth from speculation. If you can disprove the study, do so. If you cannot, this study is a considered proven until equally rigorous research proves differently.

by afs on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 10:48:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I say test your theory. (3.00 / 1)

I believe this sentiment that I hear so often in the aftermath of Kerry's loss flies in the face of common sense. A slight majority of the people I know are either moderates or independents. Many of them vote either way or vote both ways down a ballot. Take me for example. I've voted for two democrats and two republicans for president and one abstention where I didn't like either choice.

I also hardly think the dems went towards the center in 2004 when they chose Kerry as the final nominee. They knew what happens when you pick a MA liberal...during the primaries the republicans were practically salivating over this. But he was a war hero which was supposed to make him resist the whole Dukakis frame.

But I say we test this theory that the middle doesn't exist. I challenge the dems to nominate the most consistently liberal/progressive candidates they can muster and run them against the GOP, completely ignoring considerations of moderation because those votes apparently don't exist or are inconsequential. Let's see how it works in actual application.

http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:24:38 PM EST

Stop ranting and read the damn article (1.50 / 2)

You might learn something.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:33:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ok, it's getting old now. (2.50 / 2)

Grow up, kid. You're trolling.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:47:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm pointing out you're ignoring the article (none / 0)

The aricle lays it all out in easy to folow terms. You're treating that very well researched article like Pentacostal treats a Koran.... inspired by Satan.. crap like that.

I'm sorry the fact that there is no middle in American politics destroys all your arguments. You cannot treat that FACT that the middle is gone like something you can ignore because your faith allows you to ignore inconvenient facts. The far right does that crud. We do not.

by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:58:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm pointing out you're ignoring the article (3.00 / 0)

We are saying that Chris' interpretation of the article's description of "the middle" doesn't make sense.  

I wouldn't dispute that there may be proportionately fewer in the middle than in the past, ideologically.   But we're discussing implications for winning elections.  

I'm generally a big Ruy fan, and I read this article hours ago.   YOU are misinterpreting what we are saying.   Do you really believe that there is no middle?  That there are no marginally or nonpartisan Independents or D's and R's who are party members in name only?    You think these voters are actually righties or lefties?  Come on, you're trolling for a fight.  And lamely so, I might add.    Also, you're rude.

by Andmoreagain on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:05:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm pointing out you're ignoring the article (none / 0)

There is a middle but they are ambivalent... they will follow the 'stronger current'...

"Bad ideas beat 'no ideas' everyday and twice on Sunday..."

But you have to be making that message for more than a few months every four years or that ambivalent populace percieves the message as 'no ideas'...  the whole basis behind 'repetative marketing'... over and over on message.

by dryfly on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:15:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You're trying to treat facts like faith statements (2.00 / 0)

The article is a well researched fact. There are no "interpretations" to disagree with.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:16:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (3.00 / 1)

I'm in sales & marketing... there are two kinds of marketing campaigns... (1) product promotion and (2) market development... Product promotion only works IF the market has already been established (think how hard it would be selling gasoline before the automobile... without a market all the promotion in the world falls flat).

Product promotion is like an election campaign... market development is like grass roots politics. Until we prepare the country for a progressive message, it won't resonate in an election.

That is why a Dean Chmnship is so much more significant than a Dean candidency... if he can motivate the base and build the roots like he did among the netroots folks... then whoever is the standard bearer in 08 will benefit enormously...

If that is done... then your experiment will work... but not until then.

by dryfly on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:39:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

DingDingDing.. We have a winner (none / 0)

We need to re-educate the electorate. It's going to be a bitch, but they have to be made aware just how far the far right has attempted to move the whole political spectrum to the right. We have to show histroically just how extremist the GOP as a whole has gotten.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:43:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Right On! (none / 0)

I used to be concidered a 'moderate' many years ago (70s)... now I would have to consider myself a wild eyed leftie... but I haven't changed - the freaking country has!
by dryfly on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:53:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Me and Howard Dean were Carter/Truman Dems (none / 0)

I've been watching the whole political discussion careen violently out of control to the extreme right of the political landscape for more than 25 years.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:04:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ding Aling (none / 0)

Are you saying we need to "tell the truth"?   Make rational arguments to the public and assume that they will make rational voting choices?   Educate them?  How?   Enroll citizens in seminars?  

Sure, as part of a 20 year strategy of changing the debate, I'm all for "educating" voters.   But you are clinging to this idea of rational thought and voter choice.

by Andmoreagain on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:54:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ding Aling (none / 0)

Most states have zero grass roots dem organizations... in red and swing states especially.

Until you get progressives visible all the time we will be behind... hitting the 'populace' once every couple years with move-on ads won't do it. It has to be an on going war of ideas... the GOP gets this and allocates money to it and subsequent organization... we will never have their money so we need to be smarter and even more persistant.

And it just isn't being 'rational' alone... a lot of these issues are 'emotional'... GOP thrives in this theatre... we need to understand this better. We can... it isn't magic.

by dryfly on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:04:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (none / 0)

Well you have 3 years to get there and Dean as chair. I say go for it and try. But I have two caveats.

  1. I can't think of a time that strategy has worked before for a presidential election; running only on the base.

  2. You realize if it fails you may end up taking two steps back in the long run. The moderate wing will blame a 2008 loss on that theory and pull the party back to the middle.

But if the dems are willing to try it, I say give it a go. After all, 2000 and 2004 weren't smashing successes either.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:53:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (3.00 / 0)

I agree to an extent.  Whether the far leftests believe it or not, the Democratic Party is considered by many voters to be out of the mainstream of American culture.  That's just the way it is.  And personally, I think this is due in large part to abortion.  Simply put, most americans don't believe abortion should be defended as intensely as many leftists believe it should be.  They want it there, but they also want much more regulation on it than is currently allowable under R/W.  And that includes myself.  I think that issue alone, if it could be resolved a bit more moderately, would cross huge expanses toward ending the extremist image problems liberals have.
by descrates on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:05:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nope. Support for choice always above 60% (none / 0)

It's one of the few guarantees in politics. The pro choice position has always held at 60%+ support.
by afs on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:40:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nope. Support for choice always above 60% (none / 0)

There are several ways to ask the question.

  1.  Do you like abortion?
  2.  Do you believe that abortion is a terrible decision but one best made by the mother who is closest to the impact of that decision?
  3.  Do you believe there should be fewer abortions

You would get overwhelming negative response to 1 and your 60% to 2 and also a large affirmative to 3.

So the pro life and the pro choice can show support for their views in polls.

by donkeykong on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 05:40:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nope. Support for choice always above 60% (none / 0)

There are so many ways of phrasing the question and giving different options that it is impossible to give any accuracy to polls on abortion.

That being said, the most comprehensive poll I ever saw showed a bell curve among the different positions.

A few said it should always be legal with no restrictions.
Some said it should legal with no restrictions in the first trimester, and somewhat restricted later on.
Many said it should be generally legal, but somewhat restricted in all trimesters.
A fair number said it should be illegal, except in cases of rape/incest, or a woman's life/health.
Some said it should only be legal to save a woman's life/health.
A few said it should always be illegal.

IIRC, the poll showed a slight pro-choice majority, although slightly under 60%. Most Americans do support Roe - as modified by Casey.

by wayward on Sat Feb 12, 2005 at 08:25:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nope. Support for choice always above 60% (none / 0)

Yes and no.

Across the population as a whole, the pro-choice position is more popular. (Although if you break it down, most people take the weakest version of each position - either pro-choice with restrictions or pro-life with exceptions.)

However, among those who "pull the lever" based on that issue, the pro-life position is more popular by about a 2-1 margin. Pro-lifers simply view the issue as being much more important that pro-choicers, especially male pro-choicers.

Gun control is similar. 81% of the population supported renewing the assault weapons ban. However, very few of those who did based their vote on this issue. Meanwhile, the NRA is always quite successful at mobilizing voters.

by wayward on Sat Feb 12, 2005 at 08:18:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (none / 0)

While I do agree with your statement that many voters view the party out of the mainstream, the polls and facts don't support your theory that abortion is the reason.  From most polls I have read, abortion, while a vocal topic, is not as big of a concern to a majority of voters.  All things being the same, it might break a tie, but it is not the main reason most voters vote.  

Personally, I think it comes down to not our stances on certain issues but how we have been PORTRAYED.  Issues including gun control (which kills us in the midwest and south), religion, security and gay rights.  We are sold as wanting to ban all guns, which isn't true of most dems.  We are painted as anti-religion even though a majority of members consider themselves religious.  A decorated soldier like Kerry was said to be weak on security by a guy who didn't show up to the national guard most of the time.  We are portrayed as advancing some secret gay agenda when our arguments are for civil rights.  Basically, all of these issues have hurt us much more than abortion as of late.

How do we handle it...good question?  Besides a Dem noise machine, we need to come up a different frame.  Gay Rights should not be compromised on, but we need to figure out a way to sell it as the value of civil rights and equal opportunity and loving our neighbor.

Security is tough...Maybe look at promoting domestic security instead of the war machine.

Religion, we are a seperate church and state party which is how we should be.  But we should not be afraid to be proud of our religious affiliations.  Don't try to convert people, but do let people see the positive influence it has had on a pols life.  

Guns - another tough one.  not sure how to frame this...something with safety but not taking any away from people.  

by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 10:15:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (none / 0)

Gay rights:

The problem in promoting legal recognition of gay partnerships is an inherent contradiction between how this is promoted and how people have traditionally argued for gay rights.

The traditional argument is that what consenting adults do with each other is none of anyone's business. This libertarian argument has a wide range of appeal even among people who do not personally approve of homosexuality, usually for religious reasons. A person may not believe homosexuality is right, but they do not want the government to have the power to break down someone's door and throw them in jail for being gay. In fact it was one of the court's more conservative justices, Anthony Kennedy, who wrote the majority opinion when the court overturned Texas's sodomy law in Lawrence v. Texas.

Arguing for legal recognition of gay partnerships turns this on it's head, because instead of this relationship being none of the government's business, the couple is asking the government to make it their business by giving the legal blessing to the partnership. A new frame must be found.

Because of the nature of the argument, I doubt people will ever approve of gay marriage. Civil unions are still a possiblity, and an increasingly popular one. If you can get people to see this as a situation of fairness (gay couples cannot do things married couples take for granted) and not as an implicit or explicit approval of homosexuality, you are far more likely to get support.

Anyway, the best way to steal the momentum from the right is to remind the American people that in a time of war, men and women in the Armed services who are honest about their homosexuality are still not allowed to serve their country.

Security - Remember after the Towers fell when we said that if we became afraid, then that meant the terrorists had won? We should use this as a way to break the opposition's campaign of fear.

Also don't say "multilateralism" say "teamwork". Don't say "diplomacy" or "negotiation" say "peaceful solution". Don't say "the U.N" say "the World". Little phrases can make a difference in the tone of a speech.

Religion - Separation of Church and State is good for the Church as well as the State. Churches in the U.S. are thriving. State supported Churches in Europe are dying.

Guns - Promote responsible gun ownership by responsible gun owners. Guns are good, but not in the wrong hands. (Unfortunately, many on the left have made the mistake in the past of focusing to much on gun control meaning banning certain guns as opposed to keeping them out of the wrong hands. The Brady Law was a much better idea than the terribly written Assault Weapons Ban.)

Economics - if the Democrats can't win on economics, they need far more help than I can provide. (Hint: John Edwards had it mostly right.)

by wayward on Sat Feb 12, 2005 at 08:54:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (none / 0)

It will take more then three years... but in three years we could reverse the trend - stop loss.

If the GOP floats another turd like GWB... we could win in 08... but to win consistently will require an much stronger organization... ain't there now.

by dryfly on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:11:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (none / 0)

The very fact that 51% of America elected a turd like Bush with popular support this time leaves me somewhat skeptical that they'll be able to smell the stink next time around. I'm a Florida voter and when I was watching the results come in, I couldn't believe he won the state by such a large margin after 2000. I have very little faith left.

It would not surprise me if Jeb makes a run. You should see the judges he appoints. He's another W.

http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:48:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (none / 0)

Jebbery is a stronger candidate than W - harder to beat I fear...

But I'm from Minnesota and it is different than Florida... the big threat up here (and Wisconsin & Iowa)... is if you go to the middle you lose the base... they will and have voted 'Green' or 'Socialist' or just plain 'gone fishing' instead of voting GOP-lite...

Look at Feingold & Wellstone - very strong progressive message with solid grass roots organizations... both won consistantly... even Wellstone was breaking when he died... he would have won.

The art will be to build the base via grass roots development & message, message, message... make people understand what a progressive stands for and why... reason & emotion... then we will have a chance... but it will take 5-10 years to see results... until then the only chance we have is hoping they float turds... big smelly ones.

by dryfly on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:32:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (none / 0)

I disagree.  He lacks the charisma W has.  I have heard both speak a few times and was more impressed with the skills of the language butchering W over Jeb.  He just doesn't have a dynamic personality.  His name gives him a boost, but a fighter personality Dem will beat him.  Kerry vs Jeb would scare me some.  Hillary, Feingold, Dean, even Edwards would be able to take him down.  
by yitbos96bb on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 10:20:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (none / 0)

Jeb is smarter and more conservative than his brother.

He has said he does not want to make a run, but 2008 is a long way off.

by wayward on Sat Feb 12, 2005 at 09:03:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (none / 0)

It's already been tested -- by the Republicans.

They did nothing but play to their base in 2004, and they won.  

What do you think those gay-marriage ban bills were about?  They were designed specifically to get the evangelicals to the polls.

Meanwhile, the Democrats, cowed by the GOP and the GOP's media allies, kept flip-flopping and triangulating in response to Republican attacks -- instead of hitting back twice as hard. If Kerry had been allowed by his advisers to fight the Swift Boat Liars on his terms (which were remarkably similar to the highly effective 'rapid response' methods that Harry Reid is using right now against the GOP), he would have won.  Instead, he looked weak.

The big irony is that the DLC "keep moving right" types believe in aping the Republicans' ideology,  when in fact the Republicans' real strengths are in their tactics.

Look at most of the big questions, especially social-welfare questions:  Most Americans agree with the Democratic position on most of them.   But since the Democrats have been cowed into not standing up for themselves, the Republicans win the big national races.

by Phoenix Woman on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 10:27:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (none / 0)

Was there base SS?  Forgot the bill the AARP backed with Bush.
Was there base Steel unions in Ohio? Steel protectionism.
Was there base Arab Americans in 2000 when Bush mentioned racial profiling against arabs as bad?
Was there base Blacks when they appointed Powel and Rice?
Was there base Jews when they backed Israel to the hilt?

Republicans have already moved to capture the middle.

by donkeykong on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 05:45:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Of course (none / 0)

With you and the rest of the Joementum crowd hacking on them, and the party the entire time. Yeah, that'll work.
by ElitistJohn on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:25:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I say test your theory. (none / 0)

"Pursue your base" and "run a candidate who is in a wing of the base" are independent notions.  "Pursue your base" means telling Democrats that if Bush is re-elected he will threaten Syria with war, as he did a couple of days ago by recalling our Ambassador, he will try to eliminate social security and the minimum wage, he will appoint Radical NeoCons as judges and cabinet members, and he will try to end abortion rights. "run a candidate" might have meant nominating Mr. Kucinich or Mr. Sharpton.

Any Democratic candidate for President, any of the eight or so aspirants from Mr Shorpton to Mr Lieberman, could have run on the same issues that I listed, and that is what pursuing your base is.

by phillies on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 09:16:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You're forgetting... (3.00 / 1)

There are many people who don't vote. They are the middle, perhaps neglected because they don't vote, and they sure aren't partisan. They are the same people who voted Jesse Ventura into office.
by Christopher Hitchens on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:29:07 PM EST

No... you're applying dated presumptions (none / 0)

All that conventional wisdom is based on old models that no longer applies in the current environment.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:45:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're forgetting... (none / 0)

You're right in that the largest voting constituency in America has historically been those who don't vote at all. But on the democratic side, there are also a large number of people who don't bother voting. Take the youth under-30 vote for example. Highly unpredictable and unreliable.

But I do think the non-voting middle is larger than the non-voting base. But the non-voting middle can swing either way, the non-voting base swings one way. Or maybe a third party way, like Nader.

http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:57:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wrong. The article proves that's all changed. (none / 0)

The middle is gone from politics.

Get used to it.

by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:59:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We need to put their rubbish in historical context (none / 0)

They scream that anyone to the left of Newt is a "godless commie." It's time to put all their rants in some historical context. We have to make people understand who the real extremists are.

Eisenhower had a 87% top tax bracket. Goldwater was against reducing the top tax rate from 70%. Nixon had a 70% top taxbracket. Jimmy Carter was considered a conservative Democrat when he ran. On economics, Bill Clinton was to the right of Barry Goldwater.

by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:29:20 PM EST

Re: We need to put their rubbish in historical con (none / 0)

Based on his record, I will say that Clinton was one of our greatest Republican Presidents.
by wayward on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 10:39:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

well, duh. (none / 0)

if you look at any of the exit polls, unless it was a landslide, 90+% of the Republicans and Democrats voted for their party's candidate. the best you can do is turn out your base and appeal to independents.
by johnny longtorso on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:34:06 PM EST

Exactly. (none / 0)

Simple and succinct.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:59:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Get off the thread, troll (1.00 / 1)

Once you went into all the support you say Bush had in the mythological land of BlackBushSupporters, I knew your posts on this thread had entered the realm of fairy tales.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:13:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: well, duh. (3.00 / 0)

But if your base is 'shrinking' because it isn't being tended to - then coming around every four years looking for it is a bit futile... a bit late.

I said above, I'm in sales & marketing... there is a saying in sales... 'if you missed your quota THIS year it is because you didn't do a good job LAST year'... You make your future IN THE PAST... we have a lot of catch up to do if 08 is to be any different than 04...

by dryfly on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:08:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

One side is crazy (3.00 / 1)

The data tell me that one side, or the other, is not seeing reality. The numbers from Democrats and Republicans are contradictory and no explanation of reality can claim that both sides are right.

Democrats or Republicans are horribly and completely wrong and are harming this country.

I want to stand face to face with every Republican I know right now and talk to them about what is real and what is not. I want them to convince me that they are not crazy or accept that they are.


DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE THAT GEORGE BUSH IS THE BEST PRESIDENT YOU HAVE EVER HAD?

Hey. Look me in the eye. Stop squirming and looking away and answer my question.

George W. Bush. You really think he has done a better job as President, is more visionary, has led better, and is more likable than Ronald Reagan and his father George H. Bush?

You really believe that?

You believe that WMD were there and are there? You believe that this war is the one in which America must start torturing her enemies? You believe that President Bush was wise to abandon the hunt for Osama and attack Iraq? You believe that throwing money at millionaires and cutting Social Security and money to the poor is the way to go? You believe there is no corruption or abuse of power? You believe that directing secret propaganda against Americans is justified?

Do you really believe that President Bush belongs on Mt Rushmore carved in stone?


by Curt Matlock on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:52:43 PM EST

Some things are better left unanswered. (none / 0)

I work with a lot of military folks. I can tell you that right up to Nov 2nd, many did indeed think that way. Even many of the blacks I know which was shocking to me. But the military gets mostly Fox news and Rush for news on government channels, so maybe not surprising.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:02:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Now I know you're spouting troll shit (1.00 / 1)

There is no huge group of "centrist" black Bush supporters.... anywhere. It's a LIE.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:08:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Afs chill (none / 0)

His reply to me was fair. You don't have to track him down everywhere he posts as part of your running battle.
by Curt Matlock on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:14:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I was typing my context post before V08's post (none / 0)

I was typing my first post on the thread before v08 first post on the showed up. I would have had to have been psychic to know v08 was going to show up to "initiate tracking." at the point I began typing my first post on the thread. If I was capable of "psychic manhunter" skills, I hardly think I'd spend my time using them on an internet blog.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:24:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: One side is crazy (none / 0)

On integrating Blacks into power Bush is the best president ever.

You need to see what the other 50% sees in him before you can defeat the next one.

by donkeykong on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 05:47:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think you draw the wrong conclusion. (3.00 / 2)

Chris, I think you draw the wrong conclsuion. The middle isn't dead at all. The middle has shrank. If a centrist ran in first-choice only, run-off election, s/he would lose instantly with very little of the vote. The margin in elections has shrunk with the middle (corellation, but not causation). When the margin of victory is 3%, and even less if you assume equal non-battleground GOTV, the middle is still deciding national elections.

The middle has changed though and has not only shrunk. I think it has gotten stupider and less informed. The echo chambers on both the left and the right polarize the political cognizant middle of yester-year. What's left is the voters who are uninterested but go vote anyway. They vote with likeability being the most important factor. I think '08 is going to be another streetfight. Whoever does the best hatchet job on their opponent will win. Incumbency is much bigger now than it used to be.'

But what about the future?
If we grow liberalism, we win. We don't just win election with centrist Clintons. If we can get 8 more points of the electorate ideologically on our side, we can run whoever the fuck we want. As the middle shrinks, the stakes go up. Moderation is dead. If Republican can get 8 points of the country on their side, they will run whoever they want and win. Right now the stakes are high, and we're flipping coins. We won't be flipping a fair coin forever, if the middle stays like it is.

by srolle on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:53:06 PM EST

Re: I think you draw the wrong conclusion. (none / 0)

Not sure I agree. If the right's base agreed with that notion, they'd be pushing a candidate like Ralph Reed or Pat Robertson.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:07:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Get off the thread, troll (1.00 / 2)

Once you went into all the support you say Bush had in the mythological land of BlackBushSupporters, I knew your posts on this thread had entered the realm of fairy tales.
by afs on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:11:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think you draw the wrong conclusion. (none / 0)

I really think your down playing how far right Bush is in that statement. I think the conservative base love him every bit as much as they love robertson for sure.  They knew they had little control over the middle and figured they'd pull enough based off 9/11 to win by turning out their base.  And they were right.  I really don't think the Dems could have won on either strategy--especially after August.
by descrates on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:14:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think you draw the wrong conclusion. (none / 0)

Oh don't get me wrong. I absolutely agree that Bush is a conservative religious fundamentalist, the proof is in the way he governs: like he has a direct line to Jesus, and backing hard right agendas. But what makes him such an effective candidate is his aw-shucks regular joe appeal -- some say charm -- and his ability to put a center-right face on the party while solidly backing every wish of the base. He's very good at plying the public and putting a moderate face on his very fundamentalist ambitions.

We can see through the ruse, but much of America apparently cannot. I blame the corporate media for much of that deficiency.

http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:58:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think you draw the wrong conclusion. (none / 0)

I agree with your critique.  However, I do think we where wasting our time appealing to the middle.  As you noted, undecideds are stupid and ill-informed.  Appealing to them is a crapshoot at best.  Growing the base and turning it out is all important, along with winning as many moderates as possible in the process.  The key is to make your message appealing to both.  
by descrates on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:11:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think you draw the wrong conclusion. (none / 0)

However, I do think we where wasting our time appealing to the middle.

Dick Armey said it best (heard him on CSPAN one day)...

"There is nothing in the middle of the road but dead armadillos..."

Who says you can't learn anything from Republicans...

by dryfly on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 11:46:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think you draw the wrong conclusion. (none / 0)

I hope they believe that, I really do. I hope they believe it enough to run a religious fundamentalist in 2008 on a platform of banning gay marriage, banning abortion, mandatory school prayer, removal of evolution from the public school system, etc.

Because they will lose in a landslide.

http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:02:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think you draw the wrong conclusion. (none / 0)

"I hope they believe that, I really do. I hope they believe it enough to run a religious fundamentalist in 2008 on a platform of banning gay marriage, banning abortion, mandatory school prayer, removal of evolution from the public school system, etc."

Sounds kinda like you are describing GWB...

As we saw in 2004 they might not lose in 08 with a candidate like that - unfortunately. It depends on how they 'position' the candidate and how the organize and whether we have organized...

The middle will follow the 'strongest current'... whether logical or not... the right has had the current going their way for a long time because we have defaulted so often... we can only change that by organization and message, message, message...

by dryfly on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:39:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think you draw the wrong conclusion. (none / 0)

It's a short-term vs. long-term thing. We're at the crossroads right now. If I was running a candidate tomorrow, I'd get a physically attractive, nice guy that makes everybody feel good on the inside. If we had another presidential campaign starting now, I'd run John Edwards. I guess I'm changing my mind a bit on Edwards. He's not my favorite guy at all, and I didn't have a "political crush" on him like a lot of folks around here. In this precise moment, the middle is all that matters. Said moment will not last forever.
by srolle on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:23:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Why is bipartisanship increased? (none / 0)

I wonder what you all feel is the reason bipartisanship has became so increasingly divided.  Personally, I think it's because the government increasingly has a greater reach in our lives.  Government programs account for almost one third of all the goods and services in the United States. Just think, whoever wins the Whitehouse and Congress gets to decide how  one third of our economy's resources are distributed. As government becomes a bigger chunk of our lives more and more resource decisions are determined not by individual decisions, but by whoever wins elections, thus causing more and more anger over losing political power.
by Freedom Fighter on Thu Feb 10, 2005 at 10:57:46 PM EST

Non-college white women (3.00 / 0)

Sorry to summarize the article but one of its main points seems to have been missed in this debate about the middle.

Bush, per the article, received the highest approval "thermometer rating" (84 vs. 80 for Clinton among Dems in 96 and 78 for Reagan among Repubs in 84) from his party in the 36 years of the poll and the lowest from his opposition party (29).  Kerry received normal ratings from Dems but ran well below McGovern among Repubs (32).  In short, we are about as divided as posible along the love/hate continuum.  Only 5% of the poll's sample was neither Repub nor Dem, not much room for the middle.

So if swing voters are a myth (the poll sees most Independents as either Dem leaners or Repub leaners), what drove the election?

Ruy Texeira says a lot of things.  A good portion of his article addresses what he sees as the group that swung the election: white women without a college degree.  (He calls them "working class" white women). The drop off here from the 2000 election for Dems was around 15 points for both married and single.  The group not only went with Bush on security issues but gave him a whopping 55-40 lead on his handling of the econony.

What's happening here?

If you want, you could also target Catholic voters who went for Protestant fundie Bush over altar boy Catholic Kerry by a whopping 2.5 million (the group broke even in Bush vs. Gore).

I'll tell ya, except for abortion, the Pope is way to the left of Kerry and probably about any American senator, governor, etc.

There may be a lot of overlap here in the 2 groups. But what in the world moved this group.  According to polling they moved late and they killed us.  Does anyone have some ideas how to move them back?
 

by David Kowalski on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:43:07 AM EST

Re: Non-college white women (2.00 / 1)

It pretty simple really. Bush told a lot of lies. Those who had the mental tools to distinguish fact from rubbish were against Bush. Those who were not equipped with the mental tools to figure out just how much Bush was lying supported Bush.
by afs on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 12:53:21 AM EST
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Re: Non-college white women (none / 0)

Calling those who voted for your opponent "stupid" is no way to win elections.
by wayward on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 10:42:11 AM EST
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You're making too much sense. (none / 0)

Have you been reading FDR's "How to build a winning coalition"?

Catholoics despise abortion. This I know from a lifetime of experience. I personally don't care about abortion either way. I'm just tired of the country losing over this one issue.

by Paul Goodman on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 02:34:48 PM EST
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Re: You're making too much sense. (none / 0)

Abortion is a much bigger problem than many on this board would like to admit. Yes, opinion polls say that most Americans are pro-choice. However, people who chose on that issue alone go the other way by a large margin. My experience is that many people won't even listen to the Democratic message because of the party's position on abortion. Catholics who may agree with every other Democratic position will vote Republican based on the abortion issue alone.

Also, those who are pro-choice often do favor some sort of restrictions on it, such as parental consent laws or right-to-know laws, or only having it legal up to a certain point, except under extreme circumstances.

Whether they believe abortion should be legal or not, most Americans believe that there should be fewer abortions. The Republicans have provided their plan and vision for doing this, but the Democrats have not. In fact some Democrats have almost given the impression that there isn't enough abortion in America. (I have heard people on our side complain that there aren't enough abortion providers and that we need to provide abortion funds to poor women. Then they wonder why people are viewing the party as not pro-choice, but pro-abortion.) If the party believes in safe, legal, and rare (or never) they need to start talking about how they are going to make it rare.

by wayward on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 10:34:51 AM EST
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Re: You're making too much sense. (none / 0)

You could steal the Libertarian Party platform:
   There should be no government restrictions on abortions.
   Antiabortion people should not be forced to pay taxes to pay for abortions.
   The latter issue seems to upset a lot of antiabortion people who accept that things happen in the world that they view as evil. (Well, they do; live with it, or convince their children that their parents were wrong on this topic, too.)
by phillies on Wed Feb 16, 2005 at 09:20:53 AM EST
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Re: Non-college white women (none / 0)

The biggest problem is that the Democrats failed to articulate a real alternative to the Republicans on economic issues. Why was Kerry talking about importing prescription drugs from Canada when we could do what Canada does here in the U.S.? Better yet, why do so many Americans go without healthcare when Canadians do not have this problem?

The social safety net has been eroded to the point where many workers, especially younger workers don't know the extent to which it once existed. For example, I never knew that unemployment benfits once lasted for 18 months and were untaxed until I heard it on the radio the other day. To a large extent, the churches have replaced this social safety net for many people, and the biggest churches are usually quite conservative.

by wayward on Sun Feb 13, 2005 at 10:28:45 AM EST
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Well, yes and no (none / 0)

On one side - yes. The Democratic party has no more people (especially - in Congress) like James Eastland or O.C. Fisher or Larry McDonald (who was a national president of John Birch Society) or Bob Stump (he was elected as Democrat 3 times and, before that, spent 20 years in Arizona legislature as a Democrat, though a very conservative one...), and so on.. The same true for Republicans - no more Jacob Javits or Clifford Case or Charles Whalen or Gilbert Guide - people, who could be called "liberals" without much exaggeration.. In fact - there is no more really conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans in Congress anymore:  the most conservative Democrat (Gene Taylor) would be considered very moderate (especially - in Deep South) 30 years ago and the last liberal Republican (Connie Morella) was gerrrymandered out of office in 2002.

That's really sad - because the American politics became much more boring and much less interesting in the last 30-35 years..  Diversity is almost always good thing. But that's the fact..

On another side - about 40% of Americans call themselves a "moderates". These people can almost equally dislike Tom DeLay and Galvin Newsom (or even Nancy Pelosi), but they don't have real voice in any of 2 political parties.. They vote "holding their nose" either for liberal (more or less) Democrat or for conservative (more of less) Republican. Both parties generally don't want to accomodate these people and their views. Both are dominated by vociferous "activists". May be - it's a time to think about third party - but not in the far left or far right - in the "middle"...

by smmsmm on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 03:15:03 AM EST

Define this so called "middle" of yours (none / 0)

I hear a lot of people yelling a lot about this vague notion of "centrists" and "moderates."

Define it for us.

I want to hear what this so-called "middle" is defined as and defined by.

by afs on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 04:06:39 AM EST
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Not "so called" (none / 0)

I will describe (generally) my own positions, which i consider moderate. Take into account, that for the time being i reside in other country, so, not all "pure American" problems relate to me directly (but my cousin, who lives now in Dallas suburb hold approximately the same views)... :)

economics: against SS privatization (but - for studing such possibility, it's pluses and minuses, for the future). For balanced budget. For extended health care choices, but skeptical about universal health care (i don't see how it can be done without very sharp tax hike, and remember that referendum on  this subject in rather liberal Oregon failed not long ago 21-79). Against Bush on "tax cuts".. Very much "pro-education" (i am Ph.D myself), skeptical about vouchers..

social: pro-choice, but with some restrictions ("partial birth abortions" only in case of medical neccessity), absolutely "pro civil unions" (with all due legal support), but very strongly against "gay marriage". Pro-environment (against ANWR).

Foreign policy: for gradual withdraval of troops from Iraq, firmly against military plans against Iran. But, at the same time - very firmly for anti-terrorist measures against people like Bin Laden (including their physical extermination by "special squads" without trial...)

by smmsmm on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 04:29:53 AM EST
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You're like me. A moderate now called a commie (none / 0)

Moderates like us are godless commies now, according to the GOP and DLC. A real historic political moderate has watched the ground shift radically to the right, and now notices that when one analyzes political positions, they are now on the far left of the discussion.

Dean was never against the war on terrorism. He was against invading Iraq because he saw that it had nothing to do with the war on terrorism, and would do nothing but weaken the real fight we faced in places like Afghanistan.

Health Care is one area that proves the neo-con propaganda about support for religious social organizations is all BS. Religious groups built most of the hospitals in this country and managed them as non-profit organizations/charities. The religious hospitals were the health care safety net. Religious hospitals made sure people got needed health care. Religious health care organizations were run out of health care because people who had dollar signs  dancing in their eyes saw there was big money to be made in health care. There is no "safety net" in the health care system anymore because all these "compassionate conservatives" could make big profits by getting rid of the safety net. We may have no choice but to go to a government-based universal health care system because the far right destroyed the religious group non-profit health care safety net that had existed, and there's no framework to return to it. Health care is simply an area that society cannot afford to make big bucks. Nobody should make windfall profits on people's suffering.

We're pretty close in where we stand on the issues you listed. We simply are not moderates anymore.

by afs on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 10:29:09 AM EST

Re: May be... (none / 0)

but i find it a sort of irony - on, for example, dKos, i am frequently called "conservative" and almost "crypto-republican" and "troglodyte". On Republican blogs - far-left-winger and almost "commie".. Strange... I prefer Democratic candidates at least 9 times out of 10 (yes, i know some quite reasonable Republicans, whom i could vote for, as well, but they are rather rare breed).. Really strange..
by smmsmm on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 10:47:23 AM EST
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Same thing has happened to me (none / 0)

I was called a "deathmonger" and "fascist" by peace activists when I supported the Kosovo and Afghanistan military interventions. In Kosovo, it was looking like another Srebrenica was about to happen any day, and we had to do something to stop another genocide in the making by the Serbs that were in power. In Afghanistan, the Taliban was completely out of control, and had to be taken out of power.

There are justifications and standards for military intervention, and Kosovo and Afghanistan met the tests. Iraq clearly did not. Because I pointed that fact out, I was a "godless commie" again.

by afs on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 11:17:26 AM EST
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Re: Really similar (none / 0)

and not only on foreign politics. The same things happened on social politics as well. Because i support "abortion rights" and "civil unions" - i am almost "persona non-grata" on Republican blogs, because i support some restrictions on "abortion rights" and against "gay marriage" - almost the same on many Democratic ones... And all this despite the fact that there are (at least - still..) a lot of people "in the middle".... Repeat once again - strange...
by smmsmm on Fri Feb 11, 2005 at 11:28:54 AM EST
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