There will be 36 gubernatorial races next year, 22 in states held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats. Seven of the eight states where the incumbent isn't seeking reelection are held by the GOP -- and that could grow to eight if Romney decides to forgo a second-term bid in favor of running for president in 2008.

He emphasized he's no political forecaster. But based on what he's been told by other Republican analysts, he said, if conventional expectations are borne out, the Republicans could lose three to six governorships -- after failing to pick up either Virginia or New Jersey last month. That could strip them of their majority. "If we run good campaigns, we'll do better than that," Romney said.

Republicans, who hold 28 governorships, are particularly worried about losing New York, where Gov. George E. Pataki is retiring after three terms and setting his sights on a possible presidential campaign. In Ohio, the scandal-racked administration of Gov. Bob Taft has put the Republicans on the defensive in a state that has been crucial to the party's presidential fortunes.

"Ohio should be a tough state," Romney acknowledged. "Bob Taft has had a tough run this year and has left us in a weaker state than I'd like."

Other states now held by departing Republican incumbents that are likely to be competitive next year include Florida, Arkansas, Colorado and Nevada. Beyond that, several GOP incumbents are facing tough campaigns, including Maryland's Robert L. Ehrlich Jr.