How much do people like Arizona's Jon Kyl?  Ask his friends.

"He used to drive a Corvette. A guy that drives a Corvette can't be all that boring," said C.A. Howlett, a lobbyist who has known Kyl for 30 years.

"Jon Kyl is not a riotously funny guy,'' Howlett said, ``but he's very likable. He's got good Midwestern values and he's very sensitive to people."

So he's boring and not funny.  And those are the compliments.  I guess I'll add another compliment.  He's 'vulnerable'.

Arizona's not an easy place for a Democrat, with Republicans having a 5 point registration advantage.  Wealthy developer and Democrat Jim Pederson is behind Kyl, 50%-30%, with 7% going to 'other' and 14% undecided.  Pederson, though, has the money to compete, and he will make it a race.  I put up the SurveyUSA tracking poll for Kyl at the bottom of the post, and you can see it's not a good trend for him.  Pederson is a strong ally of Governor Napolitano, who is one of the most popular figures in the state.

There are two things that make this contest interesting.  One, Kyl has high disapproval ratings, and the race hasn't even started.  This is important, because one thing Senators have is a sort of cushion from regular criticism.  They serve 6 year terms, have a fair amount of constituent relationship power, and are seen on TV bringing back money to the state all the time.  As a result, they have high approval ratings sort of built-in, but these ratings come down to earth where there's a contest and a debate.  Among Democrats, Kyl pulls in a 33% approval rating.  Among liberals, Kyl pulls in a 34% approval rating.  That means that the base isn't solidified, because there isn't a race yet.  Once Pederson gets going, Democrats will line up behind their candidate.  In other words, people are right now looking at a nice handsome man who is bringing in military spending and sponsoring the 'Puppies are Nice' bill and saying 'I approve of this man'.  Once there's actually a contest, that number is going to drop like a stone.

The numbers tell more of the story.  Arizona Senator John McCain is beloved, while the Senator from K Street Kyl is not.  McCain's approval/disapproval is 67-28, a 39 point gap.  Kyl's is 46-39, a 7 point gap.  That's a 32 point difference in net approval between the two Senators.  This is one place where McCain's 'maverick' reputation could seriously hurt the Republicans.  Kyl is a Bush lacky, and Pederson can and will continue to point out that he serves Washington DC and not Arizona, unlike his fine straight talking colleague John McCain.  That will work, especially with immigration on the table and anger towards Bush on that issue (I think that might be where the other 7 points marked 'other' is going).

And Kyl is way out of practice.  Check out this 'character piece':

Kyl generally stays out of the limelight. But heading into the 2006 election against a well-funded Democratic challenger, the 63-year-old senator acknowledges he will have to work harder to draw attention to himself.

``Sometimes it's a help because I can get a lot done without being bothered'' by reporters, he said. ``It's just when it comes time to run for re-election, it's nice if people know what you did.''

So no one's been paying attention to him, he's got relatively high disapprovals for someone out of the limelight, and he's undefined.  Interesting.  

And then there's immigration.  That's the wedge which will make it difficult for Kyl to run away from Bush.

Democrat Jim Pederson's campaign is looking to exploit differences between Arizona Republican Sens. John McCain and Jon Kyl on immigration as Pederson mounts an uphill battle against Kyl.

While McCain has staked out a middle-of-the-road position on illegal immigrants, co-sponsoring a bill with Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.), Kyl has remained closer to his party's conservative base.

With Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Kyl, who is in his second term, is spearheading legislation that, unlike the McCain-Kennedy bill, stresses border enforcement and makes no room for guest workers.

Pederson, a real-estate developer and former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party, supports the McCain-Kennedy bill, which grants citizenship to illegal immigrants who live in the United States for six years and pay a $2,000 fine.

"The stark policy differences between John McCain and Jon Kyl will absolutely be an issue in this campaign," Pederson spokeswoman Selena Shilad said. "Immigration reform is a pretty typical example of Jon Kyl's approach to tough issues. ... McCain has said that Kyl's bill `borders on fantasy,' and it simply doesn't have a broad base of support."

Kyl is an unpopular Senator, tied to Bush, and on his best issue - immigration demagoguery - John McCain calls Kyl's bill a 'fantasy'.  Wow.  And John McCain, keep in mind, is Kyl's campaign Chair.

Kyl could use fewer compliments from friends, I suppose.