MyDD :: Immigration Could Create Not One, But Two Cleavages Within GOP

Immigration Could Create Not One, But Two Cleavages Within GOP

by Jonathan Singer, Sat Dec 17, 2005 at 03:14:11 PM EST

Last night, the Republican-dominated House of Representatives passed legislation that would attempt to drastically clamp down on unlawful immigration through measures not including the President's proposed guest worker program. While this bill is certainly popular within some segments of the Republican base, as Jeffrey H. Birnbaum writes in a Washington Post article earlier this week, another key pillar of the GOP is none to happy with the direction of the party on this issue.

The House Republican leadership and the nation's business lobby, usually close allies, are battling each other over the issue of immigration.

In a rare schism, employer groups led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce are pressing to kill a Republican-sponsored measure that would require businesses to verify that all of their workers are in the United States legally and would increase penalties for hiring illegal employees.

Lobby groups including the chamber, the National Restaurant Association and the Associated General Contractors of America are so vehement in their opposition that they will consider lawmakers' votes on the bill a key measure of whether they will support them in the future.

[...]

Lobbyists reached yesterday couldn't remember the last time that prominent business groups listed a vote against the Republican leadership as a "key vote" determining their organizations' view of a lawmaker's record.

The break between the corporatists and the nativists within the GOP is not the only potential schism to develop as a result of the issue of immigration, as the Los Angeles Times' political analyst Ronald Brownstein notes in a piece yesterday.

This legislation could present the party with the same risky political equation it faced in 1994, when then-Gov. Pete Wilson, a Republican, promoted Proposition 187 to bar illegal immigrants from most public services in California, including schooling. Though support for the proposition helped Wilson win reelection, most analysts agree that a backlash against it helped tilt the state toward the Democrats by increasing turnout among Latinos -- and souring those voters on GOP candidates.

Now, state Republicans find themselves on a similar tightrope as they try to satisfy activists urging tougher measures against illegal immigrants without again alienating Latino voters, who have only recently shown signs of reconsidering the GOP.

[...]

Before Proposition 187, Republicans attracted as much as a third of the vote among California Latinos, as Wilson did in the 1990 governor's race.

After Proposition 187, GOP candidates failed to win even a quarter of the vote among California Latinos in the 1994, 1998 and 2002 governor's races and the 1996 and 2000 presidential elections, according to Times exit polls. Compounding the damage, Latinos increased their share of the state's vote from 7% in the 1992 presidential race to twice that by 2004.

While it's clear that this enmity is developing on its own within the Republican Party, it would be foolish of Democrats to just sit back and watch. Real shifts in coalitions occur not only when specific issues begin to divide one party, but also when the other party has both the vision and prowess to exploit the divisions at their earliest stages.

If a substantial portion of the Republican base wants to institute initiatives that do not cohere with the aims of business, both large and small, the Democrats should not let business forget this. If this same segment of the GOP base trumpets nativist policies aimed at undercutting the liberties of some Hispanics, the Democrats should go to great lengths to remind Hispanic voters of the steps the Democratic Party has taken, and will continue to take, to ensure protection of the rights of all minorities -- and indeed all Americans.

The Republican Party might not be coming apart at the seems just yet, but it's evident that cracks are developing within its governing coalition. If the Democrats not only want to win elections in the short term but also build the base upon which future elections are won, the time is now to make full use of these nascent divisions within the GOP.

Tags: Republicans (all tags)

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i read (none / 0)

this proposition and what is included. I would truly support this, and i am one who thinks we should just have a higher legal immigration so the illegal immigrants can come her and we can keep track of them. None of this bill comes in conflict with principles of liberalism. We can still have plenty of legal immigration, if not a large increase in it, and still have a wall to protect our borders.

by yomoma2424 on Sat Dec 17, 2005 at 05:02:58 PM EST

Re: i read (none / 0)

None of the bhill conflicts with the principles of liberalism? It makes it a crime for a person to come to America so his family can survive. Right now immigrating without permission is a mere violation, but the House bill would make it a misdemeanor (originally the House Bill made it a felony). And it defines anyone who knowingly aids or hides from detection an undocumented immigrant a smuggler subject to 5 years in prison--a commercial smuggler would get 20 years. Maybe you young people don't remember the Sanctuary movement during Reagan's war against El Salvador, but there were a bunches of people who were fleeing the death squads that we supported who came to the US for safety. Christian peace activists hid them from immigration authorities because otherwise they would have been sent back to El Salvador to face the death squads. THis bill would subject those brave Christian souls to prison time.

That is not consiste with the principles of liberalism. This bill is a draconian substitute for really doing something about the problems that stem from illegal immigration.

Keith

by keith johnson on Sun Dec 18, 2005 at 11:02:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Latino vote (none / 0)

One consequence of the Wilson campaign was that many long-time legal resident Latinos decided that they had better obtain citizenship so that they could be assured of safely staying in this country. They are among those who swelled the Latino voting population, and they vote Democratic--at least the ones I know. The anti-immigrant stance of the California GOP was a suicide pact to get Wilson elected. Of course, the CA population (majority-minority now) has many fewer nativists. But it's hard to see the CA GOP repeating that mistake.

by Mimikatz on Sat Dec 17, 2005 at 05:42:59 PM EST

Re: Latino vote (none / 0)

What you say would be true if the California GOP were able to work rationally in its own interests -- but fortunately for the very lackluster Dems at the state level, the GOP has been repeatedly swayed by nativist, racist emotions. Democrats need to position themselves as the party that welcomes immigrants in an orderly, regulated way that protects immigrants' civil and labor rights. A very little sanity on the issue will go a very long way with Latino voters because folks sense the visceral revulsion that underlies Republican immigration rhetoric.

Can It Happen Here?

by janinsanfran on Sun Dec 18, 2005 at 07:32:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Latino vote (none / 0)

That's right. KFI radio, a talk radio station out here in SoCal, has made illegal immigration its main cause, with nearly no effort to avoid racist steriotypes, and far from renouncing such, our Governor is best friends with them because they helped him so much in the recall.

There is an economic issue for working class people related to unregulated immigration though. The work done by undocumented immigrants would be done by legal residents if not for the undocumented; it's just that the labor would cost more. Cheap labor keeps wages down. But what we really need to combat low wages is a revitalized labor movement, and we don't have that because labor organizing is hazardous to keeping your job, businesses are very good at anti-union activity. The Dems need to work to change labor laws and enforcement to reverse the trend; if we could do that hardly anyone would care about illegal immigration. Of course, the Republican business approach of temporary guest workers does nothing to address the real problem, it just helps keep business supplied with workers willing to work for nothing.

Keith

by keith johnson on Sun Dec 18, 2005 at 10:13:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

An Idea (none / 0)

This hasn't been thought through, but it occurs to me that Democrats could create a wedge on immigration if they proposed legislation -- either in the California legislature or as a ballot innitiative -- that would impose civil forfeiture on all property used in employing illegal aliens. In other words: hire an illegal and lose your fucking corporate agribusiness -- ranch, pickup trucks porta-potties, you name it. There could even be a bounty hunter provision giving county DA offices a financial stake in all property seized.

What could the Republicans do if this was on the ballot?

by kaleidescope on Sat Dec 17, 2005 at 08:38:17 PM EST

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