His take is that it's a Bad Thing that Cegelis has been unable to raise money in pure fundraising quarters. Also, she spent an awful lot of money, despite the fact she really didn't have much in the way of operations. Regardless of how progressive she is, she stands no chance of winning if she can afford to send out direct mail, run some radio ads, and respond to the GOP candidate's ability to set the agenda.

I also think Rahm wants as many Democratic Veterans as he can get his hands on. Duckworth, Hackett (if he can be convinced to run for the House), Murphy ... each of these guys will help build the story that the troops are Democrats, which is going to be important for party ID in lots of districts. Duckworth is an awesome story and if she can be convinced to run as a Democrat I would see a hard time passing her up.

Now, I made this suggestion in the Daily Kos thread, and was promptly provided with five different ways of saying that locals (and near-locals) disagreed with Emanuel's decision. And several commenters insisted that the 5th and 6th CDs are so different as to admit of no possibility that Emanuel's proximity might give him some insight. But I still think the truth lies closer to my side of the line than theirs. Rahm Emanuel was elected to Congress from the neighboring district, and Duckworth was originally approached about running by Dick Durbin. So though neither Durbin nor Emanuel are from the 6th District, I find it hard to believe they they're entirely clueless about what might work.

Cegelis supporters certainly won't hesitate to claim that they are. Or at least that Emanuel is. But the only true way of determining who knows what will and will not fly in that district is the results of the primary. All else, ultimately, is spin.

As for me, if in the general election I have a choice between a Republican and a DCCC DINO, I will vote Republican. I'm sick of corrupt Party bosses.

If the Greens weren't a one issue Party, I'd join them.

Second, I've lived in District 6 for 32 of my 41 years, only missing a 9 year stint in AZ to going to college and falling in love with the desert. I grew up in Henry Hyde's home town, and saw since I was a kid that Hyde was not viewed as a Republican, but as a fixture. There was no other candidate. Hyde was the district's representative, and was seen as a great man by many, especially when the district was solid Republican Red.

The district has changed greatly since I was a kid. The Italian and German immigrants kids who made up my classmates are not replace with eastern Europeans, Hispanics, and middle eastern immigrants. Mosques are now being built in several places, and the Muslim community is growing in placed like Lombard.

As a resut in the shifting demographics, Democrats are growing again the in district. Registration of Democrats has been gaining on Republicans, and if the trend continues could equal or surpass Republicans by as early as 2008. The Republicans control all seats in all county positions, but for the first time in my lifetime are being challenged rather than running unopposed as they have for decades.

Cegelis was a rallying point in 2004. DFA groups adopted her, and local party meeting began to spring up. Now for the first time I can remember in my life, there is a Democratic Township organization in all 9 of the county townships. While Cegelis is not responsible for this, she was in large part the poster child for the new Democratic awakening in my opinion.

People canvassed for her in droves, every weekend. They volunteered for her. They went to township meetings and DFA groups for her. And what made people want to help her is that she went everywhere they did. She went to bake sales, DFA meetings, county and township Democratic meetings. She went everywhere and met with anyone who would meet with her.

Sure she made mistakes. There was no infrastructure to help her, and the DCCC completely wrote her campaign off as futile. She was greatly outspent by Hyde, but was particularly inspiring on several occasions, particularly her debate with Hyde, in which he said something to the effect of "If I wasn't running I'd vote for her." Sure it was a joke, but Cegelis earned Hyde's respect.

So now Cegelis is running again, and all we've heard since June is that Cegelis is a poor fundraiser, so she should be replaced. Who's been saying this? Anonymous "Democrats" and DCCC spokesman. Rahm's district is adjacent to IL-06, and being in Chicago, also has all the high dollar donors. Rahm controls the purse in IL politics. So the argument that Cegelis is a poor fundraiser is circular and deeply flawed:

• Rahm's people say they are looking to replace Cegelis with a "strong" candidate an that the district is open;
  
• This kills Cegelis' ability to attract large donors who don't want to go againts a candidate Rahm might set up in business;
  
• Cegelis' fundraising stalls attracting only small donors;
  

It's a self fulfilling prophesy. Essentially, Rahm is trying to shut down Cegelis' campaign by cutting off her funding. Now he's wasting $1M on a primary trying to take out a DEMOCRAT.

All I can say is WTF?

Now Tammy Duckworth, Rahm's third choice, is being touted as the strong candidate and has been set up in business by Rahm and his connections. I've said this many times now: How is Duckworth, with no announcement, getting 50 volunteers circulating petitions, paying for a-list consultants working on her campaign, media outreach sufficient to get her on This Week, and a campaign spokesperson and publicist? All this costs dollars. Big dollars. So how is she paying for it?

Duckworth might be a fine person, and should be honored for her service and her sacrifice for this nation on account of Bush's war. But, not to be disrespectful, she's being used here. If I was in her position, I'd probably do the same thing. But it doesn't make it right.

This is a lose/lose situation:

If Duckworth runs and wins:
This will be a blow to Democrats in the district who have used the Cegelis campaign as a rallying point as they work to build the local Democratic party. Such a win will most likely be viewed as a hostile take over of the district by Chicago Democrats and have a lasting effect on those most active in the district, as a bitter primary will hurt a race in which every vote will be needed to win.

If Duckworth runs and loses:
Roskam will jump all over this and run with the "Cegelis' own party wouldn't support her" narrative. Just as was done to Dean in his primary, Roskam will use this to falsely paint Cegelis as radically on the fringe of her own party. The primary would be essentially a complete vote of no confidence by the Party for Cegelis, making what is already going to be a difficult race for any Democrat that much more difficult for her. How will Rahm and the DCCC support Cegelis then after working against her in the primary?

I'm sorry for such a long comment, but I'm really pissed about what is happening in my district, and my party. This race is about the soul of the Democratic party. Are we the party of the people, or are we the party of political machines and Democratic party bosses? Rahm, for whatever his reasons, is making a big mistake and power grab here, and residents who have supported Cegelis for two years are not going to sit quietly by.

I've written extensively about this on my blog and SoapBlox Chicago if anyone is interested in reading more.

I have to say that this story does not seem accurate.

I suspect you may have actually worked on a campaign or two.  "I don't care what she "talks about". Can she connect with voters? 44% is nice, but it's only a bit more than what the sacrificial lambs got in 02 and 00 in an increasingly D district."  

These guys don't get it.  They extrapolate 44% into meaning that 44% of the IL 06 voters pulled the lever for Cegalis personally because "they like her message, she's progressive, she was one of the Dean Dozen".  Cegalis's 44% was the result of top of the ticket races like Kerry and Obama generating turnout, not people coming out to vote for Cegalis.  Her base of support is fiction just like Howard Deans netroots team that turned out to be a bunch of bloggers stroking each other into believing they had the whole world on their side because they told each other so.

These guys need to get in the field and actually do some heavy lifting and find out how difficult it is to run a succesful campaign.

I have heard from some 6th District voters that Cegalis is not a very inspiring candidate.   Rahm, Durbin and maybe Obama suspect that and want to win. Just like Obama, Duckworth has a great story.

This whole story about $1.0 Mio I suspect is fiction as well or a statement taken out of context.  Rahm can't contribute that much through his organizations.  It is what a candidate will probably need to raise for the primary and general.  Something that Cegalis will not accomplish regardless of the number of diaries that these armchair consultants publish.

Oh, and before any smart guy thinks this is Rahm or a DCCC or DNC staffer,  I haven't talked to Rahm in 18 years.  I am just a seasoned veteran of some of the most exhilirating and successful political campaigns over the last 30 years in the Midwest.

I want a winner in the 6th!!!!