McCain and the Fearful Democratic Base

Lots of interesting stuff to chew on in this new Zogby news release, but I'll focus on what is fast becoming my pet peeve.  

The one Republican with real appeal across the political spectrum is Arizona Sen. John McCain. If he campaigns for a candidate, 55% of Republicans, 53% of Democrats, and 58% of independents would be more likely to support that candidate.

And:

Democrats want their leaders to make modest compromises on their principles in order to win over voters from the middle of the political spectrum, while most Republicans want their leaders to stand firm on issues, even if it means losing moderate support, the poll shows. While 61% of Democrats agreed it was better to compromise to win broader support, just 44% of Republicans agreed. Independents, by a 58% majority, agreed that softening some ideological stances to attract moderates was the best strategy.

The survey showed that 93% of Independents, 63% of Republicans, and 79% of Democrats wanted candidates who were independent of party leaders and were willing to compromise to get things done.


First, the surrogate issue.

Surrogates are the heart and soul of a political operation.  They help you build crowds, raise money, get media attention, craft message, shore up weaknesses (have a moderate act as a surrogate for a candidate who is perceived as too extreme, or vice versa), and attract voters.  They also, and this is important, get their hands dirty where the candidate cannot.  Republicans systematically attack our surrogates, like Cindy Sheehan, since they know that allowing us to have personalities that are also symbols allows us to frame message more efficiently and more effectively.  This is, incidentally, why people like Michael Schiavo are quite important.

John McCain is an excellent surrogate for the Republicans.  Democrats like the guy.  Even hard-core partisans.  For instance, take this diary on Kos called 'Support Sen. John McCain & his bill to ban torture'.  To paraphrase Atrios, my standards for a politician are slightly higher than 'not willing to explicitly legalize torture'.

John McCain fronts for people like Rick Santorum, and George Bush.  He fought for the Bush Iraq adventure in 2002, a Bush reelection in 2004, he fights effectively for a Republican majority in the House and Senate in 2006, and a Republican White House in 2008.  He knew torture was going on in 2004, but he still chose to support those who perpetuated it.  Our base needs to learn that if you support McCain, you support torture, intelligent design in schools, and all bad things Republican.  Period.

And this leads me to the second paragraph that I quoted.  One of the lessons that we should take from 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2005, is that having principles is seen as a sign of strength.  Tim Kaine used his stance against the death penalty to show that he is honest and independent.  Rather than punishing Kaine for believing something that wasn't popular, voters respected his honesty in confronting it directly.  He made it clear that capital punishment is a religious issue for him, that he is principled, and that he operates in good faith.  Standing up for unpopular principles is tricky, and Kaine did say he'd enforce the law even if he didn't agree with it.  Contrast this against Gore's muddled campaign in 2000, or the Democratic stance on the Iraq War, or the non-nationalized 2002 elections, or Kerry's similarly muddled campaign in 2004.  

What troubles me about the Zogby study is that a substantial part of the Democratic base seems to have gone beyond a willingness to compromise on policy and wants to compromise on principles.  All of the front-pagers on MyDD are consistently shocked at the pushback we receive when we advocate for progressive principles and advocate taking Democrats to task for acting against the most basic norms of human decency.  For instance, take this comment defending Lieberman by anonymous commenter bluenc:

I resent Lieberman's weaselly politics as much as the next Dem, but we have limited resources for 2006, and we need to focus on the real important battles. We can pick up seats in places like PA, OH, MT, RI, even AZ. We shouldn't be using our money and time to pick off a fellow Democrat. This will split up the party, and that's the last thing we need. True, the party leadership has been moving away from Lieberman lately, but there are still plenty of well-connected and well-funded Democrats who would be willing to go a few rounds for Lieberman. We don't need infighting right now, so let's nip it in the bud. Please.

This is shocking.  Lieberman is a liar and an apologist for war criminals who accuse all of us of treason.  He consistently provides cover for Republicans, and injures the Democratic brand.  It is not a waste of resources to replace a reactionary like him with a progressive Democrat.  Political capital doesn't work that way.  Yes, it will take financial resources to replace him, the political rewards in governing the country better will be more than worth it.  Let's take that one step further - what is the electoral damage of having Lieberman out there bashing Democrats and causing a consistent 'Democrats Divided' media narrative?  Pretty high.

And then there's the dishonesty in the comment. "I resent Lieberman's weaselly politics as much as the next Dem.."  No, you don't.  If you genuinely resented his politics, you would try to force change.  That you not only advocate against change but advocate against one guy on a blog putting his thoughts out on Lieberman means that in point of fact you are on his side.  Politics is about choices and trade-offs.  It is simply bad faith to whine about a politician and then when the opportunity arises to beat him argue strenuously against that.  That is the same thing as saying that 'I voted for the war before I voted against it.'  It is soulless, gutless, unprincipled politics, and it is also losing politics.  This is not to pick on bluenc specifically.  Bluenc in his/her profiles claim to be a college student, so it's fairly likely that their comment is an echo of conventional wisdom learned from elders in the political system.  It's not a unique opinion, just the last instance of something I've noticed that is fairly common.

Over the past few years, I've gone through a sort of journey.  When I started in politics, I thought that the problem was Bush, and that if we could only go back to Clinton it would be alright.  Then when Bush's actions didn't explain our predicament, since the war was prosecuted so badly and under such false premises, I considered the right-wing message machine and their fealty to power and the raw emotional narcotic of fear.  Then when that didn't explain our situation, I turned to the the media, since surely they should have punctured the lies.  Then when that didn't explain the actions of those who knew the truth but acted against it anyway, I turned to the Democratic leadership and local party machines.  Yet that doesn't make sense either as a total explanation, for there are people of tremenous integrity in and out of the party.

So I think the only answer to why we are where are as a country, and the judgment history will render, is that all of us, progressive or not, but all of us as citizens are in our own ways responsible for what has happened.  The numbers on the base being willing to compromise before negotiations even start suggest that we as Democrats seek someone who will pander to lead us.  That is wrong, and it is our failure.  Before we can govern, we must consider our own part in this tragedy, as Stirling puts it, so that we can move beyond it.  

I encourage people to take a moment and reflect on their own part in this failure. Because failure is a team effort, Bush is in the White House because of the efforts of millions of people to ignore the obvious - that the Republican Party is the party of crankhead porn monkeys, darwin denying dead enders, and sandwich sign prophets. It is not sane at a very basic level, and the necessity of the past was to gather against it. But from top to bottom of the society there was failure. Gore acted like the Presidency was his plaything, to be packed with his people. The Democratic Party swung behind him only lazily, the left spent more of its time attacking Gore than understanding Bush. The press kneepadded for the would be chimperial highness. And so it goes.

This then is National Failure Day, the moment when the failures in the old order finally dragged it down. One can "blame" the Five, one can "blame" the media, or "the corporations".

But in the end no leader ascends to power without a populace willing to take some corrupt bargain.

We failed because we didn't stand up for what we believed in.  It was easier to listen to the money  and the media exposure and the conventional wisdom, and pick a pro-war Democrat like Kerry.  It was easier to not hold him accountable after 2004 and demand an after-action review, and to not hold other Democrats accountable after 2002.  

It is easiest still to not hold ourselves accountable.  We still say 'it was their fault'.  The voting machines were corrupted.  The election was stolen.  Red states are dominated by Fox News. We have to swallow our principles and sacrifice our ideals, 'to win'.  The Democratic message is just complicated.  Bloggers know better, and want to fight, whereas the Democrats don't.

Nope.  These are all just excuses to avoid the question of 'what can I do to make change today, in my life, right now?'  

As progressives, we need to articulate a better logic than the logic of excuses.  Our philosophy is fundamentally about character, not litmus tests on issues or electability.  As progressives, we must rebuild a system where good character leads, and bad character doesn't.  This means that we do not ask reporters to be liberal or conservative, just that they be unafraid to speak truth to power.  We do not ask Democrats to say what they do not believe, but we do not allow them to subject us to fear-mongering tactics like saying that we need to appease the right-wing (or the middle of the country, which sounds suspiciously like the right-wing when that kind of advice is offered).  We do not attack those who compromise on policy in a process of negotiation where all parties give something up, but we do act when those who claim to represent us try to make selling out a principle of the American republic.

Above all we do not give in to fear.  And those numbers suggest that fear is the most comfortable companion for Democrats right now.  And just as fear is keeping Lieberman in office, fear will elect John McCain as President in 2008.  That is, unless you realize that a real dialogue is necessary.  In this country, the rawest form of dialogue happens through the ballot box, where we challenge people like Lieberman, where we say with our voices and our primary votes that real principled leaders have a place in our party, and support.  

I'll close with a snippet of RickD's comment. RickD doesn't think Lieberman is particularly vulnerable.  Yet he doesn't shrink from a real debate:

That doesn't mean it isn't worth running a challenge.  Defining the issues in a clear manner, and showing how Lieberman has been part of the problem: these are worthwhile endeavors.


Display:


Turn it all into action (3.00 / 1)

...'what can I do to make change today, in my life, right now?'  

As progressives, we need to articulate a better logic than the logic of excuses....

Turn it all into action.

Speak truth to power. Keep swinging - no matter what. Expect no quarter, give none.

If you post or read here and you haven't yet volunteered for a local, state, or national candidate for the 2006 or 2008 cycles you're just wasting bandwidth.

543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 08:31:56 PM EST

A very perceptive post... (3.00 / 3)

the thing that is wrong with our country is the ignorance, apathy, jingoism and virulent racism of much of the citizenry. ReThugs win because people really want to believe their lies.

The key to political success right now is education. Democratic or Progressive candidates have to run their campaigns in a manner which shows the citizenry how the ReThugs are hurting them with their policies.

Dems have to stand up and talk about what's wrong, why it's wrong and how they propose to fix it. In that order but not necessarily at the same time.

The falling approval numbers for ReThugs and the President reflect the fact that many citizens are starting to understand what the ReThugs have in mind for them.

Economic slavery and a fascist political regime.

Paul Hackett showed the way by calling Bush what he is: a coward. Rep. Murtha continues to show us how to do this: explain, inform and attack. He's good; he can do it all in the same speech.

We need individuals who can do this to run.

by Pericles on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 08:50:19 PM EST

That's the story of the 2004 primaries (3.00 / 1)

Way too many Dems went for the guy they thought would have the best chance to beat Bush instead of someone that they actually agreed with.

by LSdemocrat1 on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 09:01:40 PM EST

Clarity and Conviction: The perfect cocktail (3.00 / 2)

I say it all the time to my friends.  Folks will vote for candidates who stand up for their principles, even in the face of an armageddon onslaught by the noise machine.  Folks will vote for candidates who speak from the haert about issues that they care about, and do it in a plain-spoken, direct way.

Voters want leaders, not politicians.

Voters want candidates who they think will take a stand, not waiver on the fence waiting for political winds to blow you to safety.  
Showing voters that you have balls, even if anatomically, you don't.

The GOP of 2005/6 is not, by any means, down for the count.  They may look flustered, but we cannot assume they are anything but a massive tank, steamrolling down our street with the intention of burying us.  That's the only way we can play, is to assume this next election is the most important we will ever face.

by Sam Loomis on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 09:18:59 PM EST

We are often accused of eating our own. (3.00 / 1)

Unfortunately, we don't eat enough, it seems.  We need to get over this anorexia.

Eat a few Democrats.  Oh yes, we will lose a few Democrats in the process, but the rest of the herd will move faster when they hear us talking about what's for dinner.

The Republicans know how to do this, and they do it well.  Look at how Club for Growth batters the hell out of Republicans that show weakness on taxes.  It seems counter-productive to us, but it puts the fear of God into the rest of the pack.  

We can't punish all the Liebermanns.  We don't really want to.  But we can punish Liebermann.  And that sends a message.  

How do we punish our leaders?  Primary challenges.  

by Dumbo on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 09:23:46 PM EST

The Dems in this Poll... (none / 0)

are just reflecting the lack of passion and resolve they have been getting from their leaders. When Dem leaders start putting out clear statements of principle and begin demanding that progressive measures be enacted, Dem support will firm up and more independents will look favorably on the election of Dems.

by Alvord on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 09:34:09 PM EST

Re: The Dems in this Poll... (none / 0)

chicken and egg...
by Matt Stoller on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 09:48:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The wording of the questions may be part of it (none / 0)

"modest compromises on principles" and "softening some ideological stances" may have meant different things to the voters questioned, than they do to us.

It may be that these voters thought of supposed "extreme left stances" such as universal abortion on demand, nationwide legalization of pot and ecstasy, etc; courtesy of the 3-decade-long barrage of propaganda about the "far left Democratic Party."  

I doubt that either the Democratic voters or Independent voters had in mind that Democratic politicians should "compromise" and let Social Security be gutted, or that middle-class people should be thrown to the wolves of the infamous bankruptcy bill (which is in fact the big thing I am mad at Lieberman for).

As we have seen across the country in districts large and small, when the candidates don't compromise, but rather make their principles loud and clear, when the rubber hits the road and the ballots hit the boxes, they get voted for, even in "red" districts.

So it may be in the wording of the survey, I dunno, but so far experience on the ground does not corroborate it.

by ItsBeenCalmingForSomeTime on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 10:00:17 PM EST

Great... (none / 0)

One of the lessons that we should take from 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2005, is that having principles is seen as a sign of strength.  Tim Kaine used his stance against the death penalty to show that he is honest and independent.

Great! So, remind me again why anyone here supports unprincipled losers like Bob Casey and Sherrod Brown?

And while we're at it, Matt, why don't you explain to us why you chose to support a second-rate imitation progressive fighter in Clark, when you could have had the real deal with Dean?

by rhealdeal on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 10:27:51 PM EST

Re: Great... (none / 0)

I supported Clark, who is a progressive and was against the war from the get-go.  I probably should have supported Dean, but I do not consider Clark support as indicative of some sort of litmus.

I do find it interesting that you assert Brown is not principled; he is widely considered one of the most progressive members of the Democratic Party.  

by Matt Stoller on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 01:12:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Great... (none / 0)

Apologies for the late reply, but yes it most certainly is a litmus. Clark gained support from those Democrats who felt that his biography would help to shield him from Rovian attacks--a milder strain of Kerry support, if you will. Those were, by definition, the same Democrats who failed to understand that the only factor that should have been considered in selecting a candidate was his willingness to fight the Republicans and respond in kind to their cheating and smears. That should have been 100% of the calculus, and anyone who placed less than 100% importance on that factor displayed an insufficient willingness to go toe to toe with Karl Rove.

As for Sherrod Brown's alleged progressivism, a fat lot of good that's done us in this Congress, or in any other Congress in which he's ever served. Again, what has to be understood is that today, with the GOP ascendant, one's policy positions don't matter for squat. Otherwise, Joe Lieberman would be a good Democrat--his voting record is more liberal than half the party's. No, in today's world, progressivism should be measured only in terms of one's willingness to attack the GOP, and nothing else. You can be as "progressive" as Eugene V. Debs but if you aren't willing to do whatever it takes to win, then you might as well be a Republican. Hackett is willing to go on the attack. A career politician who's lived comfortably in Washington for ten years and maintains friendships with Republican congressman fails the test.

by rhealdeal on Thu Dec 22, 2005 at 12:26:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Mcain's attractiveness to Non-GOP cuts both ways (2.00 / 1)

The same reason Mcain would do so well among independents and centrist democrats are the same reasons the right-wing of the GOP hates him.  He comes off as being his own man.  I would even consider voting for him or Guliani if it meant having a more moderate GOP,and to prove that moderate Republicans can win.  Other than Mark Warner, there's not a whole lot of Democats I can get fired up about.  All the others are sure losers, unless the GOP throws up some wingnut.
by ctd72 on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 10:42:12 PM EST

Re: Mcain's attractiveness to Non-GOP cuts both wa (none / 0)

He comes off as being his own man.  I would even consider voting for him or Guliani if it meant having a more moderate GOP,and to prove that moderate Republicans can win.  

In one ear out the other...

by Matt Stoller on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 11:31:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mcain's attractiveness to Non-GOP cuts both wa (none / 0)

Matt, in this diary you only have

John McCain fronts for people like Rick Santorum, and George Bush.  He fought for the Bush Iraq adventure in 2002, a Bush reelection in 2004, he fights effectively for a Republican majority in the House and Senate in 2006, and a Republican White House in 2008.  He knew torture was going on in 2004, but he still chose to support those who perpetuated it.  Our base needs to learn that if you support McCain, you support torture, intelligent design in schools, and all bad things Republican.  Period.

Which is all true, but nowhere near as effective as the series of MyDD diaries on McCain as an extremist.  Personally those brought me around to seeing what a dangerous opponent McCain really is.

However not everyone who visits or comments here will have read those diaries, and this comment isn't too productive.

Though it is frustrating to see progressive bloggers who haven't yet figured out McCain is no moderate.  It's going to be tough to defeat that idea by 2008 at this rate.

by scientician on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 11:37:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mcain's attractiveness to Non-GOP cuts both wa (none / 0)

Find an error if you want, tell a story, or do a thought experiment.  This just sounds like you're trying to find something to bitch about.
by Matt Stoller on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 12:54:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mcain's attractiveness to Non-GOP cuts both wa (none / 0)

Sorry?

I'm just saying you'll need to be patient with people who haven't figured out McCain's "I'm not a moderate but I play one on TV" game yet.

by scientician on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 01:46:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Muddled campaigns (none / 0)

We really have the MSM to thank for muddled campaigns. Whenever I hear these memes from Dems I wonder why some are so bent on not placing the blame where it belongs. Then of course there are also the theories that both Kerry and Gore won. So go figure if they did how was it muddled.

When we can't get through the Noise Machine we can't be effective. When members of the Dem party help the MSM by perpetuating rumors and memes we're not effective either.

My 2cents.

by Pamela on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 12:28:51 AM EST

Re: Muddled campaigns (none / 0)

Adding to this - anyone who thinks we had muddled campaigns has not read this -

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - The Disinformation Society
http://www.thedemocraticdaily.com/the_disinformation_society.pdf

by Pamela on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 12:30:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Muddled campaigns (none / 0)

You're completely right.  It's all their fault.  That's entirely why five right-wing Senators won in 2004, why we lost the Senate in 2002, why 20 plus Senators voted for Alito and the Iraq war, and why the bankruptcy bill passed with bipartisan cover.  Completely.  
by Matt Stoller on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 12:57:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You're All Right! (none / 0)

I'm late to this debate, but had this thought on reading the thread of comments after this excellent piece.  What was most striking about the overall thread is that while the diary itself made the point  that there are many, multivariate (is that redundant?) factors that lead to our defeat, there's a strong pull in the reactions to try to identify and isolate out of all of the factors the One Big Factor that can explain and cure it all -- it's the candidate's personality; it's the consultants; it's their discipline; it's the party elite; its the RWCM; it's the rhetoric and so on.  But the point that Matt makes, which is absolutely right, is that it's all of those things, and in order to win we ignore any of them, including but not limited to the failure of leaders to stick to principles, and the timidity of too much of the base, at our peril.

For my part, I agree that the problems Matt puts his finger on are a big part of the problem.  I am also coming to believe, given my experiences here in Massachusetts, that political figures divide into two camps that generally align along the Democrat/Republican axis, but not always.  And that division is between those individuals whose primary motivation for political engagement is or has become the achievement and consolidation of power and those whose motivation is to distribute that power.  Those who assert and stand by their principles when doing so is unpopular most obviously fall into the latter camp.  But I believe that a big part of progressive political organizing should include within it a tutorial for recognizing those who fall into the former, because you know that those people will sell you out in a heartbeat if elected.  I have more to say on this but I have to get to work.

by Jimbob Kinnikin on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 09:13:57 AM EST

Re: You're All Right! (none / 0)

I hope you'll write about your experiences in MA.  It's a good example of party dysfunction.
by Matt Stoller on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 10:26:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're All Right! (none / 0)

Thank you, I will, when I have the time and it fits into the gestalt of the commentary.  I think it's a little off topic here.
by Jimbob Kinnikin on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 02:21:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I predict... (3.00 / 1)

that McCain's crossover appeal will diminish substantially when the Dems have an actual candidate calling him out on his right-wing stances.

Plus, if he's going to get the GOP nod, he'll have to tarnish his moderate credentials in the primaries by kissing RW ass big time.

by paul minot on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 10:56:29 AM EST

Good point. (none / 0)

... the left spent more of its time attacking Gore than understanding Bush.

It'd be a mistake to read that as yet another cheap shot at 3rd-party politics and Ralph Nader. It's rather more perceptive than that.

For the most part, the "left" truly did spend far too little time looking at George W. Bush to understand the danger he presented. There were exceptions, like the Texas Observer, but for the most part, those like myself who relied primarlily on the left press for info (2000 was B.B.E.: before the blog era) were given the impression Shrub would likely be a clone of his dad: no great shakes but hardly the radical he turned out to be.

Perhaps the left could be excused: As governor of Texas, Shrub did start out as a moderate, and only embraced wingnuttia in '98 or so when he decided to go for the Big Chair. With 20-20 hindsight, Cheney's selection of himself as Shrub's running mate should've told us what kind of administration they'd run, but its significance was much harder to discern at the time.

To their credit, most of the left learned quickly, and united behind Kerry despite their dissatisfaction with him. As a result, neither Nader nor Cobb was a spoiler in any state last year, and Kerry nearly pulled off the win despite a record wingnut turnout. Green Party candidate Cobb even explicitly endorsed the "safe state" strategy, and minimized his campaigning in swing states.

For his part, Gore treated the left as his birthright 2000, ignoring the Nader phenomenon until it bit him in the butt, making Florida close enough for Shrub to steal it. 2000 really was the Murphy Moment for American democracy: everything that could go wrong, did.

If you're always playing the fear card, it's a pretty good sign you're not playing with a full deck!
by Mathwiz on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 01:22:41 PM EST

Not to mention complacency. (none / 0)

And just as fear is keeping Lieberman in office, fear will elect John McCain as President in 2008.

Not to mention complacency. I can't count the number of times a Clintonphile has defended her endless pandering on the basis that "the wingnuts won't let McCain win the nomination, so she needs to 'seize the center.'" I think that meme got started during the 2000 primary campaign, when Bush and Rove rallied the wingnuts to their side, forcing McCain to go for the anti-wingnut vote in "open" primary states (of which there were too few for him to win the GOP nomination).

But eight years is a long time, and there's no issue that McCain's come out foursquare against the religious Right on. Unless indicted, Rove may even work for McCain in '08. Anyone who counts him out had better think again.

If you're always playing the fear card, it's a pretty good sign you're not playing with a full deck!
by Mathwiz on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 01:32:04 PM EST


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