MyDD :: Lieberman Vulnerability

Lieberman Vulnerability

by Matt Stoller, Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 01:14:53 PM EST

I've written that Lieberman is vulnerable to a primary challenge. His strength as a candidate comes from the relatively closed nature of Connecticut's party system. The SUSA numbers on him though are stunning.

Lieberman is at 63-31 approval/disapproval overall. Not a surprise, and similar to Chris Dodd's numbers, who is the other CT Senator. Among Democrats, however, Lieberman's numbers are 59-36, and among liberals the numbers are 52-41. Among Republicans, Lieberman's numbers are 69-24, and among conservatives the numbers are 63-33.

In other words, Lieberman's approval ratings are higher among Republicans and Independents than among Democrats. And when you go by ideology, base liberals like him less than base conservatives. This is remarkable. Moveon has 50,000 members in CT, and only 130,000 voters voted in the Democratic primary in 2004. I don't see any way you can look at these numbers and not see a strong potential political problem for Lieberman if a credible primary challenger emerges (Weicker is implying he will only run as an independent).

Amazing stats.

UPDATE: The unstated assumption here is that a negative campaign against Lieberman could easily soften up his numbers among primary voters.

Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

Permalink :: 29 Comments :: Post a Comment

Yeah, but... (3.00 / 2)

...his numbers amoungst liberals and Democrats are still well into positive territory. I think we should challenge him, but he'll almost certainly win the primary.

Now, an example of somebody who is in danger of losing the primary is Lincoln Chafee:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=879b48ef-706e-41b0-9f42-283568caa121

He only gets a 38/54 score amoungst Republicans (the exact opposite of his overall rating). The bonus here is that a wingnut almost certainly can't win the general election, so if Chafee loses the primary, we will probably pick up the seat.

by Geotpf on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 01:27:34 PM EST

Re: Yeah, but... (3.00 / 2)

While it's true that Lieberman is still in positive territory, it's probably worth pointing out that his approval rating has dropped 12 points among Democrats in the last two months and 16 points among liberals.

by Matthew Gertz on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 02:20:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, but... (none / 0)

Good point.

by Matt Stoller on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 02:33:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, but... (3.00 / 2)

Above 50, but as Matt pointed out, MoveOn has 50K members in CT, where only 130K people voted in the last primary.

I also suspect that if more Democrats and liberals were educated on exactly what Lieberman has been saying/doing for the past few years, his numbers would go down.

If the progressive base can get mobilized and at the same time inform more Democrats about where Lieberman stands on the issues, I'll bet he could be taken out in a primary.

But those are a couple of big ifs...

And don't forget his fundraising prowess.

TAKE BACK OUR PARTY: Democracy Bonds

by LiberalFromPA on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 03:12:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, How Much Do His Constituents Know? (3.00 / 1)

I think this is a very good question.

Do his constituents think he is more liberal than he actually is (possibly due to a genial manner in person), or do they actually know his voting record and are comfortable with it?

If the former, MoveOn could orchestrate a massive overturn (if only a good challenger can be found).

If the latter, MoveOn should instead try to tone down their normal boisterous exuberance. Yes, definitely still GOTV their members to vote Lieberman out, but if the general CT electorate truly is Liebermanishly conservative, then a loudly "Left Wing MoveOn" candidate (how the wingers would paint them) could drive the voters straight into the arms of the Republican candidate in the general election. I'm sure that's what the CT Democratic machine is afraid of, or saying they are.

I'd really like to see a generalized poll of the CT electorate on such items as the Iraq War, Social Security, bankruptcy laws, the budget deficit, tax cuts for the rich vs for the working poor, and so on. That could really inform how, and whether, we should take on Lieberman.

Make no mistake, I think Joe is a waste of a perfectly good 'D'. But if we can't persuade the voters in his state to oust him... sigh, I dunno.

by ItsBeenCalmingForSomeTime on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 10:09:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes, How Much Do His Constituents Know? (none / 0)

Well I bet they don't know, since there isn't a discussion around his record.

by Matt Stoller on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 10:22:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Gaining a majority (1.66 / 3)

How is the race in Pennsylvania going? Or Rhode Island? Or Ohio? Or TN? Or Arizona?

by Blue State Boy on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 02:00:32 PM EST

Re: Gaining a majority (2.00 / 6)

If you want to know why don't you do some research?

by Matt Stoller on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 02:07:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Dem leadership distancing from Lieberman (3.00 / 2)

I wrote a diary the other day on DailyKos about how I noticed that it seems that the Democratic leadership is suddenly distancing itself from Lieberman. All of the stuff I talked about happened within days of each other.

Another thing to keep in mind. Not only does MoveOn have 50,000 members in CT, DFA has about 9,000. Something that I find REALLY interesting is that Jim Dean, Chairman of DFA, is a resident of Fairfield, CT, and personally delivered a petition to Joe yesterday.

I haven't seen any speculation about him running in the primary against Lieberman, but I can't help get past the fact that he started a petition, gathered over 55,000 signatures (over 1500 of whom are CT residents), hand-delivered it to Lieberman's office, is a resident of Lieberman's state, and oh yea, would automatically have a 9,000 person volunteer army that is already organized locally.

Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.

by Fran for Dean on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 03:50:29 PM EST

Re: Dem leadership distancing from Lieberman (none / 0)

Let me correct my previous statement about speculation of whether Jim Dean would run. The only speculation I have seen is my own :)

Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.

by Fran for Dean on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 03:55:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Jim Dean for CT-Sen (none / 0)

That would so rock if he ran. But then, who would run DFA? Would Joe Trippi be an appropriate person to bring back? (His blog posts sure rocked.) Or does Joltin' Joe have the right kind of political savvy for that organization?

I'd love to see "Senator Jim Dean." I just wouldn't want to see DFA, which fills such a good niche of supporting local candidates in small races, get left behind and wither away.

by ItsBeenCalmingForSomeTime on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 10:11:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I am a strong believer in a big tent, normally (3.00 / 1)

As such, I would not be in favor of trying to unseat a Democratic incumbent. We need Democrats of all stripes. In my own Congressional district, MD's Sixth, we unseated a conservative Democrat (Beverly Byron) in a primary about 15 years ago and we haven't sniffed a win in the district since.

This is not a usual case, however. Lieberman has gone out of his way to quetion the patriotism of his fellow Dems.

He must go!

by howie14 on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 04:36:13 PM EST

Sorry folks, but this would be a mistake (none / 0)

I resent Lieberman's weaselly politics as much as the next Dem, but we have limited resources for 2006, and we need to focus on the real important battles. We can pick up seats in places like PA, OH, MT, RI, even AZ. We shouldn't be using our money and time to pick off a fellow Democrat. This will split up the party, and that's the last thing we need. True, the party leadership has been moving away from Lieberman lately, but there are still plenty of well-connected and well-funded Democrats who would be willing to go a few rounds for Lieberman. We don't need infighting right now, so let's nip it in the bud. Please.

"There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right with America"- Bill Clinton

by bluenc on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 05:22:58 PM EST

Agreed. (3.00 / 2)

but for a different reason. My biggest concern is that a Liebermanless ticket would hurt our down-ticket races for the 3 Congressional seats largely in play next november. While with Lieberman siphoning votes to Simmons, Johnson, and Shay's causes, a Liberal Democrat there instead may cause us to win maybe only 1 seat rather than the 2-3 we ought to pick up. His cottails will regardless of what you think of him help out in making Nancy Pelosi majority leader.

However, something needs to be done with him regardless. I think Reid made the perfect move by telling the press that he was absolutely all alone, even amongst Republicans, and now I hope that Lieberman won't be used in their talking points. But w/e, it's a tough decision to be made.

by KainIIIC on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 06:23:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A primary challenge would be terrific (none / 0)

A big tent philosophy cannnot include the likes of Zell Miller and Joe Lieberman. The very idea that Joementum would warn fellow Democrats against undermining Bush's credibility is ludicrous. If Joementum is that big a fan of Bush and Cheney and their illegal war, he should resign and run as a Republican.

Problem solved.

by Gary Boatwright on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 07:34:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A primary challenge would be terrific (none / 0)

Comparing Lieberman with Miller isn't fair. Lieberman wanted to run against Bushin 2004, while Miller campaigned for Bush. Lieberman has a liberal voting record on the environment, choice, and GLBT rights. He's dead wrong on the war, I think, but I'd rather have him in the Senate than Shays or some Repugblican. You won't win a primary against him, and the only thing you'll accomplish is splitting up the party and driving away independents. Challenging Lieberman in the primary would be a mistake.

"There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right with America"- Bill Clinton

by bluenc on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 07:40:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A primary challenge would be terrific (none / 0)

Comparing Joe with Miller may seem extreme but it is fair. They both campaign publicly against their own party. If Joe wants to bite his tongue and criticize Dems privately, we'll leave him alone.

When he goes out of his way to critcize Dems publicly it's time for him to go, safe seat or not. The party leadership needs to make an example of him just to shows the Repubs that we're not going to be p**sies anymore.

by howie14 on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 10:56:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A primary challenge would be terrific (none / 0)

"Lieberman has a liberal voting record on the environment, choice, and GLBT rights."
Fine, but these issues pale in comparison to things like the war, oil prices and the economy. Why? For the most part, they are idealogical talking points that are resoelved at teh state level, and are used nationally to 'motivate the bases'. I have been preaching for mnonths that the Repulicans use these issues to demonize us, when in reality they aren't that important because teh RNC knows that Roe v Wade will never be overturned, and if it does, it will just make them loook bad in the long run.

Joe supporting these issues means nothing in a Northeast. It doesn't prove that he's a real Democrat, because NO Democrat in the CT can get elected by going against choice and GLBT right.

Hell, even the Republicam Mass. Governor is choice.

NEXT...

by Bruticus on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 11:02:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A primary challenge would be terrific (none / 0)

Hell, even the Republicam Mass. Governor is choice.

I'm assuming that you mean pro-choice. I'm not sure that this is true. Mitt's been saying a lot of stuff to South Carolina types, hinting that he's not. And he refused to sign a bill allowing OTC morning after pill, because he said that it would be a change in the state's abortion law, and that that would constitute a breach of his campaign promise not to change the state's abortion laws. Sure most people took that to mean that he wasn't anti-choice, but he sort of switched things around.

Second, he published an op-ed in the Globe saying that he thought Roe v. Wade ought to be overturned and that the issue should be returned to the States.

Now, it is true that the Lt. Governor Kerry Healey is pro choice, and she has distanced herself from these comments. Healey was going to sign the OTC Plan B bill, but Mitt decided that he had to come back from his vacation in NH to veto it.

by Abby on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 10:35:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Moveon 50,000 memebrs (none / 0)

Let me remind you that membership in moveon means merely signing up on the website. When I worked in a congressional we got people to sign up to vote in the moveon survery. They would be listed as members but could not be counted on to do anything else.

by Democraticavenger on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 06:05:20 PM EST

Re: Moveon 50,000 memebrs (none / 0)

Which Congressional race?

A high visibility issue like dumping Lieberman and Joe's high negatives could motivate folks who would otherwise be political couch-potatoes. This could be the perfect opportunity to mobilize thousands of MoveOn members and get them to take constructive action.

by Gary Boatwright on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 07:37:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

who would you run? (none / 0)

I'm not saying Lieberman shouldn't face a primary challenge. But we have to realize how hard the fight is. The numbers you cite say, essentially, "Lieberman will win".

That doesn't mean it isn't worth running a challenge. Defining the issues in a clear manner, and showing how Lieberman has been part of the problem: these are worthwhile endeavors. Also, we need to take the long view. Dodd and Lieberman are both in their 60s. Connecticut needs fresh blood in the Democratic party.

by RickD on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 07:49:04 PM EST

Primary challenge YES. (3.00 / 1)

Yeah, yeah, we don't want to lose a Senate seat, so we shouldn't rock Libermann's tiny boat, yeah, yeah...

BUT...

A primary challenge to Lieberman would have the following beneficial effects:

It allows a real liberal to confront him and his policies, and to DISTINGUISH his positions from the positions of the Democratic base. The media story is then, has Liebermann gone too far from the Democratic base? That is a narrative we like, win or lose, because it defangs Liebermann as Bush's favorite Democratic ringer.
It makes Liebermann address issues that he might have thought he was safe from, like criticism of Iraq or bankruptcy or that dirty suck-up montage to Bush of last week. The Liebermann strategy can be stated as: Run to the right of your party, and you'll win in the general election as a "centrist." I would have no beef with that strategy if he didn't shaft the rest of the party between elections. Make him confront his base BEFORE the general election.
It costs Liebermann MONEY to deal with a primary challenge. The bad news is that it might cost him enough to keep him from spending enough against a Republican in the general and thus we lose a Senate seat. But that's HIS problem. We are willing to embrace him back into the fold (gag) if he straightens up and flies right as a liberal again. The choice is his. By confronting him with the possibility of a primary challenge, we make his choice easier.
It sends a message to the other Dems. "Be careful with that triangulation: you might just cut yourself." We can't punish every sell-out, but we can punish at least ONE (and maybe two or three, if we think about it). Make the rest of them wonder about who they have more to fear from: the Republicans in the general election, or their own base in the primary? Are they confident enough that they can risk alienating their base?

Let's make their choice easier by clarifying the risks for them.

by Dumbo on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 09:37:59 PM EST

Re: Primary challenge YES. (none / 0)

solid thinking. perhaps a diary?

by Matt Stoller on Wed Dec 14, 2005 at 09:54:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Does Democrat always = Liberal (none / 0)

I am a moderate or a conservative Democrat. I think we need to remember that all Liberals are Democrats, but not all Democrats are Liberals. I respect what Joe tried to do, that is be part of the centrist wing of the Democratic party. We need that wing especially in the South. But the problem with joe is that :

He consistently vocally opposes his party, which is not always bad but,
He consistently votes against his party. And that's the problem. The Democratic Party is for the little guy. His voting record doesn't show that, especially on Bankruptcy. Finally,
He status as 'Bush's favorite Democrat' is sickening, especially when Bush is the type of guy that doesn't do ANYTHING for ANYBODY unless they can help him. I can safely say that and friend of Bush is an enemy of the Democratic Party, Bush likes Libermann.

by Bruticus on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 10:54:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A Non-Liberal and/or Marquee (none / 0)

challenger is the answer, to simply flex the "outsider" muscle and not get bogged down in issues and ideology.

We've got to get out of the habit of making the perfect the enemy of the good. The reality of the CT electorate can't be ignored.

Which probably leaves out such celebrities as Newman/Woodward, Sarandon/Robbins, Meryl Streep, and Phil Donahue. Though one of these would be a better choice than a no-name lefty.

What I'd suggest to DFA/Moveon folks in CT would be to have a serious sit-down with David Letterman (yes, really). He's a parent now, old enough to be considering his "post-TV-boy" options, and may not want to let Franken have all the fun.

Besides, the effort itself would scare the crap out of JoJo the Monkey's Boy.

A fallback option might be Cheryl Howard Crew (Mrs. Ron Howard) who travelled (illegally) in Afghanistan to research her recent novel and is a certified sharpshooter.

www.january6th.org

by Dusty on Thu Dec 15, 2005 at 09:44:41 AM EST

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