So we are going to have a special election in the CA-50th, after the Republican culture of corruption continues to spread across the country. Here is a quick look into this district, with a eye out of our chances here in three or four months:

Voter Registration (as of February 2005):
Democratic 29.70%
Republican: 44.52%

Solid Republican, but not so solid that victory following a big scandal is hard to imagine.

Presidential Vote
2004: Bush 55.2%, Kerry 43.9%. Partisan Index: RNC +9.9
2000: Bush 53.9%, Gore 42.5%. Partisan Index: RNC +12.0

The Nader effect accounts for most, if not all, of the change here. This is solid, though not super-solid, Republican territory. I imagine a little scandal can go a long way toward closing the gap.

Senate Vote
2004: Boxer 48.1%, Jones 48.2%
Partisan index: RNC +19.9

This is a clear sign of hope. A progressive Democrat can clearly contend in this district, although Boxer did have the advantage of incumbency. Then again, the partisan index in this district for this race is huge for Republicans.

2003 Special Election
Recall Davis: Yes 68%, No 32%. Partisan Index: RNC +25.6
Governor: Schwarzenegger 63.1%, Bustamante 20.3%. Partisan Index: RNC +25.7.

2002 Governor
: Davis 37.3%, Simon 55.6%. Partisan Index: RNC +23.2

This is clearly a district heavy in RINO's. The trouble with RINO's is that while large numbers break for Democrats on national elections, they remain loyal to local Republican candidates who are viewed as less radical than the current national party. There is a clear correspondence between how well Democrats do in this district and how local the election is. The more local the election, the worse Democrats perform. This will make winning the congressional seat more difficult than the national partisan index would suggest. Almost certainly, it would have been easier to win the election had Cunningham remained in office but under a cloud of scandal. Right now, a Democratic candidate for President would have an excellent chance at this district. However, a Democratic candidate for Congress will be facing a difficult uphill battle.

Other Data:
Race Ethnicity: 67.6% White, 18.8% Latino, 10.4% Asian, 1.9% African-American
Income: $59,813 (43rd wealthiest of 435)
Poverty: 8.1%

This is a wealthy district, though also a fairly diverse district. It is very much like a slightly more Democratic version of the CA-48th. Speaking of the CA-48th, make sure you help them out. The election there is only one week away.

Our candidate in the CA-50th will be Francine Busby.