MyDD :: UT-Sen: Hatch In Trouble?

UT-Sen: Hatch In Trouble?

by Scott Shields, Tue Nov 22, 2005 at 09:41:36 PM EST

One of my first posts here was one promoting the darkhorse candidacy of Pete Ashdown, who's challenging Orrin Hatch for his Senate seat. Y'all made fun. No one was interested. Everyone seemed to think that my dark horse was more of a unicorn. Here are three of my favorites from the comments.

"I'll be surprised if Ashdown can get 30% of the vote."

"...Ashdown has a snowballs chance in hell."

"But this particular race seems more like a dead horse than a dark horse..."

I never advocated anyone bet their retirement money on Ashdown, but I still gave him a lot of credit for running a statewide race in one of the reddest states in the nation. Crucial to a successful 50 state strategy is leaving no race uncontested.

That said, there are some interesting numbers from The Deseret Morning News that indicate that next fall may be a good one for snowballs in hell. According to DavidNYC at Swing State, Hatch's re-elect numbers are looking pretty pitiful. While popular politicians in Utah typically pull over 50% for re-election, Hatch isn't quite there; he's only at 45%. Even better news for Pete Ashdown, 48% of Utah voters think that 2006 might be the time to go with "someone new."

With these poll numbers in mind, it's interesting to check out what Democratic candidate Pete Ashdown's been up to lately. Just this weekend, he spoke to a small gathering of moderate and conservative Utah Republicans about "building consensus," "the sad state of health insurance," and "openness and transparency in government." Good points to hit on when challenging a popular incumbent like Hatch.

Obviously, Ashdown will need to pull in quite a few normally Republican swing votes if he seriously wants to rattle Hatch. At the very least, Ashdown's making the right moves, especially in an election year poised to be a referendum on the current state of entrenched power in Washington.

Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

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Situation in Utah (none / 0)

At one point 20-25 years ago or even 10 years ago, Democrats were able to regularly get elected in Utah. Since the 1994 elections, Democratic participation in Utah took a nose dive. It has stabilized and Rep. Jim Matheson has been able to get elected. However is from a well-known political family in Utah who father was Governor from 1977-1985 and holds what constitutes a swing seat in the state. However we have a long way to go to even be competitive.

The chances of us beating Hatch, barring a personal scandal, is slim to none even in a big Democratic year similar to what the GOP had in 1994. With that said, a strong showing could be made that could spark renewal for the party in the state. Keeping Hatch in the 50's would be a big deal. If the election were held today, Hatch's numbers would probably come down, both because of general fatigue with the candidate as well as the national political climate. A good thing would be to see some regular polls with Hatch's reelect at less than 60% and then it would cause enough grief with Utah Republicans and the NRSCC to shift their attention and resources some.

by southerndemnut on Tue Nov 22, 2005 at 09:57:56 PM EST

Re: Situation in Utah (none / 0)

Remember-

Every Dollar Hatch has to spend to keep his seat is a dollar he doesn't have to give to help elect Rs other places- especially if he needs help.

This is what the Dem establishment doesn't get about a 50 state strategy: make them defend every seat, and a couple surprises like this will crop up, drain money and get the money race closer to even.

Would you hire George W Bush to be YOUR latex salesman?

by jgkojak on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 10:49:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ashdown's fundraising numbers (none / 0)

though September 2005

$25115 loaned (from him to himself)
$12641 raised
$36920 spent
$1958 on hand

Yeah.. that's not very good. I'd hope he's able too find some more money somewhere.

by RBH on Tue Nov 22, 2005 at 10:00:07 PM EST

Re: Ashdown's fundraising numbers (none / 0)

That's awesome that you're offering to help.

Here's a link - https:/pashdown.org/contribute

;)

by Scott Shields on Tue Nov 22, 2005 at 10:44:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hatch Smackdown (none / 0)

One of his long-lost cousins is running for the Greens. Let's smack Orrin down, he's my favorite lying Senator.

Julian Hatch for Senate.

He may not win, but we'll piss off ol' Orrin immensely.

by zappatero on Tue Nov 22, 2005 at 10:01:03 PM EST

Re: Hatch Smackdown (none / 0)

I'm going with Ashdown.

Because wouldn't it be hilarious to have a Senator from UTAH who used to DJ raves under the name "DJ XDZebra"?

Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country

by HellofaSandwich on Tue Nov 22, 2005 at 10:08:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hatch v. Hatch (none / 0)

I wonder if Utah's voters are clueless enough to vote for the wrong(right)Hatch.

by brooklyngreenie on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 01:24:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I hope (none / 0)

That both Matheson and Ashdown generate support for eachother. Hopefully, a positive Ashdown campaign generates enough support in Matheson's district to make him a safer Democrat in 2004. I also hope that Matheson's support, pre-2002 SLC, and now in Southern Utah (where the rethugs redistricted him to), will generate considerable support to Ashdown that would make Hatch unsafe.

by KainIIIC on Tue Nov 22, 2005 at 10:11:00 PM EST

Re: I hope (none / 0)

I can't imagine he's going to get much safer than the 55% he got in 2004.

by johnny longtorso on Tue Nov 22, 2005 at 10:20:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Read this article: (none / 0)

http://slweekly.com/editorial/2005/feat_2005-06-30.cfm

He is sooooooooo geeky (Ashdown, that is), but has some pretty good ideas regarding copyright. He seems like an endearing guy, even if this is a total kamikaze mission. Is he even a Mormon? I've read several articles, scanned his website, and haven't heard him mention religion ONCE.

Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country

by HellofaSandwich on Tue Nov 22, 2005 at 10:16:25 PM EST

I knkew that... (none / 0)

"next fall may be a good one for snowballs in hell."

... global warming thing was gonna cause trouble.

The 10,000 Things

by Andrew C White on Tue Nov 22, 2005 at 11:16:59 PM EST

Good Points... (3.00 / 0)

I'd say the larger point is that Utah will always be red until Democrats start giving them a real alternative.

Look at the bright blue states, like MA, RI, NY, NJ, ME. Republicans have never given up on them, and have won elections. Granted Olympia Snowe isn't a member of the Delay wing of their party.

Look at some inroads made by Democrats in places like Montana

It's got to be a 50 state, zillion county/city/precinct fight.

by Dick Tuck on Tue Nov 22, 2005 at 11:34:26 PM EST

Re: Good Points... (3.00 / 0)

ME hasn't been bright blue, it's mostly been considered a swing state - though I think it's trending blue.

On the other hand, there's no bluer state than MA, and we've got a Mormon Republican from Utah as our governor. Proper karmic balance would have Utah electing a Kennedy for some statewide office :)

by cos on Tue Nov 22, 2005 at 11:56:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Maine: Recovering Ex-Republican State (none / 0)

once Snowe and Collins retire, Maine will finish its transition from Republican to swing state to Democratic. here's hoping Sen. Tom Allen isn't too far into the future.

by johnny longtorso on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 12:34:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Maine: Recovering Ex-Republican State (none / 0)

Collins is retiring in '08. Easy pick-up opportunity there!

by KainIIIC on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 12:22:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

hatch (none / 0)

Maybe Hatch will be implicated in one of Abramhoff's scams....

by global yokel on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 01:39:07 AM EST

I want to belive... (none / 0)

And I hate to talk badly about another Dem, especially one willing to take on a statewide race.

But is a former rave DJ who features a call for nuclear disarmament are one of his prominant issues really the guy to reintroduce Utah to the Democratic Party?

If we want to be serious about changing minds in Utah, I suspect not.

by dantheman on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 02:11:47 AM EST

Well if Frank Moss (none / 0)

could represent Utah and Franch Church could represent Idaho.....Ashdown could pull an upset. The problem is the GOP has gotten expert at nationalizing candidates with issues that rarely come up for votes (gay marriage, abortion, gun control, etc.) If the Utah Democartas want to beat HAtch they need to stick the GOP platform to his butt, its filled with stuff that would well turn a Red Stater Blue!

by kmwray on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 07:21:58 AM EST

couldn't we.... (none / 0)

just get rid of Utah? seriously, we'll turn it into a microbrew or something.

by mcdaniel on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 10:21:05 AM EST

DJ'ing (3.00 / 1)

I find it hilarious that people focus on the fact that I DJ'd raves over a decade ago and don't notice the fact that I started the first ISP in Utah. XMission has been in operation for twelve years and has 25,000 accounts and 50 employees today. It is a company with a strong apolitical committment to community. We donate up to $50 a month to any non-profit or candidate regardless of mission or party.

But nevermind that, I DJ'd in college!

by pashdown on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 12:25:32 PM EST

Hey Pete, forget them. (none / 0)

It's a circular firing squad unless you're outpolling your opponent by 20%.
Otherwise, you're "too liberal", "twice divorced", or, yeah... used to DJ raves.

Go get 'em.
Some of us still believe in Giant killers, and you are doing everything right so far.

Privacy and copyright law are both huge national issues that rarely get the face time they deserve, they are also winners in Utah as well.

-C.

by neutron on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 12:58:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DJ'ing (none / 0)

The focus on your past as a DJ gets even dumber when one considers the fact that Orrin Hatch is an active recording artist. John Kerry played bass in a garage band. Ronald Reagan co-starred in a movie with a chimp. Sonny Bono was a Congressman for pete's sake!

Call me crazy, but I challenge the conventional wisdom that being born a serious, pinstripe suited politician is somehow a good thing.

by Scott Shields on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 02:18:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not that it means anything... (none / 0)

...but a few years ago, according to my brother-in-law, who married my youngest sister and who brought her into the Mormon church, one or two of the elders of the church have gently chided American Mormons that too many were voting Republican - that in order to have some level of influence regardless of where the country goes, more Mormons need to become part of the Democratic Party.

So, who knows? Get some folks to run for office that can appeal to the growing non-Mormon minority in the state, but who can also peel off just enough Mormon votes, have Senator Reid visit on behalf of them a few times, and maybe we can get a Ben Nelson-level officeholder or two out of the deal.

by palamedes on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 04:25:26 PM EST

I've only lived in Utah since July... (none / 0)

...sorry, finger slipped: I've only lived here since July, but my impression is that no Democrat could ever win outside SLC and Park City, maybe Moab. When people tell pollsters they want "someone new" in the Senate, what they most likely mean is they want a GOP primary challenger to Hatch. I'm all for the 50-state strategy, but let's be realistic. Bush still has a 61% approval rating in this backwards place.

by shagraha on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 04:28:57 PM EST

Re: I've only lived in Utah since July... (1.00 / 1)

Yeah i'd like to know what your all smokin' Hatch is probally the least vulunerable Republican Senator in the country

by orin76 on Wed Nov 23, 2005 at 10:54:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

poll numbers are misleading... (none / 0)

...because half of the "want someone new" people want someone more conservative than hatch.

the only chance dems have is if he loses to a true wingnut in the primaries.

by jethropalerobber on Fri Nov 25, 2005 at 10:25:56 AM EST

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