Part One: The Recovery Myth
Part Two: The Equal Polarization Myth

Part Three: Voters Are Not Turning To Democrats Myth

Earlier today, Harris put out a poll showing President Bush with the worst disapproval rating, and the worst net approval / disapproval rating, of any President since Richard Nixon. Of course, as many pointed out, the poll seemingly did not have any good news for Democrats either. As Taegan Goddard notes:

Polls like these are the most often cited examples of the third myth I am dealing with in this series: that while Republicans are faltering, voters are not turning to Democrats. Like the other two myths I discussed in this series, that other Presidents have recovered from similar low approval ratings, and that the country is equally polarized by Republicans and Democrats, this one is also a myth.

Voters are turning to Democrats as they turn away from Republicans. The first place one can find evidence of this was in the 2005 elections, where Democrats did very well across the country in actual elections. One would think that these results alone would have dispelled this myth, but apparently not.

The second location one can find evidence of this is on polls for the 2006 elections. Look for example, at Polling Report's new feature, a summary table of generic congressional ballot polls for 2006. Here are the results from the past month:

Poll	     Date		Dem	 Rep	 O / U
Newsweek      11/11	 53	  36	  11
DCorps	     11/06	 48	  40	  12
ABC-WaPo      11/02	 52	  37	  12
Gallup	     10/23	 50	  43	  7
DCorps	     10/23	 48	  39	  9
Hotline       10/16	 40	  31	  9

Democrats hold sizable leads in generic ballot polls, and as I have blogged a million times, these polls matter. Democrats even hold sizable leads in leaked internal Republican polls on the generic ballot. Why then, some will ask, are congressional Democrats not polling higher than Republicans when it comes to favorablity and job approval?

The answer lies in the weak favorability and job approval Democrats receive from their own base--the same base that plans on voting for them anyway. While Democrats are crushing Republicans among Independents, and while congressional Democrats receive a noticeably higher job approval from Republicans than Republican congressional leaders receive from Democrats, Democratic congressional leaders are not well thought of by Democrats themselves. A September poll from Pew that actually offers internals on Democratic approval and favorability tells the story on this one. As I wrote back in September:

One of the most interesting findings of the study is that while Democrats are unbelievably united when it comes to voting for a Democratic candidate for Congress in 2006, they actually don't like their leaders very much. According to the graphic on the right, only 3% of Democrats, whether they are liberal, moderate or conservative Democrats, plan to vote for a Republican in congressional elections 2006. However, while Democrats are far more united than they even were in 2004, and while they are more united than Republican in the generic ballot, Democrats give their leadership very, very low ratings. While Republicans give their leaders in Congress a fifty-six point approval spread, Democrats only give their leaders a seventeen point approval spread. While only 16% of Republicans disapprove of their leaders in Congress compared to 32% for Democrats, Democrats are holding fast in terms of voting intentions while moderate and liberal Republicans are actually poised to break from their party in large numbers. I guess that is what you get when you put movement conservatives in control of every leadership position in Congress.

And that, my friends, is the story here. This is why Democrats hold huge leads in polls despite favorable ratings roughly equal to Republicans. This is why Democrats have begun to win elections again despite relatively equal job approval with Republicans. The Democratic base that is more united in voting Democratic than ever before is not approving of its leaders in Washington. Democrats hold large leads among Independents (15 points in the Pew poll). They are doing much better among Republicans than Republicans are doing among Democrats. However, they are doing much worse when it comes to their own base.

This is the sort of disapproval that only shows up in approval and favorability polls, not in election polls or actual elections. Voters are indeed turning to Democrats, even if the Democratic base does not like Democratic leaders very much. Those same Democrats who disapprove of their leaders still vote for Democrats, and still signal their intent to vote for Democrats. The inability for Democrats to pull away from Republicans in favorability polls is a mirage created by the differences in the nature of favorability polls and trial heat / election polls. In a two party system, just because you don't like your leaders does not mean that you are somehow unwilling to vote against your opposition.

So Republicans can go ahead and return to denying that while Democrats are winning elections are holding large leads in election polls, voters are not actually turning to Democrats. If they want to believe that fantasy, that is fine with me. One thing the media needs to learn when it puts out press releases like the Harris poll today is that Democratic weakness in favorability and approval polls is coming from Democratic weakness among their own base--aka, voters who will go with them anyway. Democrats hold sizable, gaping leads among independents and swing voters. While in the long term this lack of strength among their base might hurt Democrats by reducing turnout and/or creating a splinter movement, all evidence currently points to greater unity among the Democratic base at the voting booth, not less. Hell, Kerry actually received the highest percentage of the vote among Democrats, 89%, of any nominee over the past forty years (at least). Voters are turning to Democrats, and realignment remains a real possibility.