Even though the narrative of Bush and Republican unpopularity has crept into the mainstream media, there remain three pernicious myths about the existing state of public opinion that are often attached to the larger narrative. Appearing in numerous sources, the three myths are, first, that while Bush's approval-disapproval numbers are low, previous Presidents such as Reagan and Clinton have recovered from similar low. The second myth is that Democrats and Republicans are equally responsible for the existing state of polarization, and no one party is appealing to the center. Finally, the third myth is that while Republicans are unpopular, the country is not moving toward Democrats.
Each of these myths is, well, a myth. They reflect the now commonplace Republican strategy of claiming that "Democrats are guilty too" whenever Republicans are in trouble on any given topic, such as the Iraq war. No where is this more true than when it comes to the second myth, that Democrats and Republicans are engaging in a strategy / practice polarization equally. Even though polarization has been a Republican goal for some time now, it is dangerous to be blamed for such a strategy because, well, most people don't like polarization (or at least claim they don't). Thus, after polarizing the nation to a degree not seen in decades, it is necessary for Republicans to claim that Democrats are equally to blame for the existing state of affairs. By arguing that both parties are engaging in "equal polarization," Republicans seek to avoid an even greater backlash against their polarization strategies and practices than they are already receiving in public opinion polls and, for the first time in a while, at the ballot box.
Part Two: The "Equal Polarization" Myth
Of course, the notion that both parties are to blame for the existing polarizing in America is nonsense. The first, and perhaps most obvious, reason that Democrats and Republicans are not engaging in an equal amount of polarization comes from the fact that polarization and base turnout was the main strategy in the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign, while it most certainly was not the strategy for Democrats in 2004. From Mathew Dowd, Chief strategist of the campaign:
And what came from that analysis was a graph that I obviously gave Karl, which showed that independents or persuadable voters in the last 20 years had gone from 22 percent of the electorate to 7 percent of the electorate in 2000. And so 93 percent of the electorate in 2000, and what we anticipated --93 or 94 percent in 2004, just looking forward and forecasting --was going to be already decided either for us or against us. You obviously had to do fairly well among the 6 or 7 [percent], but you could lose the 6 or 7 percent and win the election, which was fairly revolutionary, because everybody up until that time had said, "Swing voters, swing voters, swing voters, swing voters, swing voters."
And so when that graph and that first strategic imperative began to drive how we would think about 2004, nobody had ever approached an election that I've looked at over the last 50 years, where base motivation was important as swing, which is how we approached it.
But wait, there's more! In their recent book Off Center, Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson provide ample evidence that not only are Republicans running to their base more than any other political party has done for fifty years, but that their base is more divergent from mainstream American public opinion than any base over the last forty years (or more). They summarize their finding in a nifty graph, which they explain thusly:
What is most striking about these trends is that Democratic activists, who never gravitated as far from independents, have actually moved back to the center in recent years even as Republican activists have strayed sharply from it. Indeed, although the figure does not show this, Democratic activists in 2002 were actually slightly more moderate than run-of-the-mill voters who identify with the Democratic Party. By contrast, Republican activists are not only far to the right of independents, they are also far to the right of ordinary voters within their own party. And they have been heading ever more sharply right since the 1960's. (p 27-28)
(Note: "Activists" are respondents who identify with one of the two major parties and report three or ore election-related activities )
So, Republicans are actively engaging in a base turnout / polarization strategy, and Democrats are not. Republicans activists are pushing their party much further to the right than are Democratic activists, who are actually pushing the party ever so slightly back toward the center (at least as of 2002). What is the result of all this? Republicans have pulled away from Independents entirely. Now, in all fifty states, Democrats are closer to Independents. In most cases, they are closer by wide margins:
(Yellow states = Independents less than two times closer to Democrats; Light blue = Independents more than two times closer to Democrats; Dark blue = Independents more than three times closer to Democrats; Black = Independents more than four times closer to Democrats)
There isn't a single corner of this nation where Democrats are not more in line with Independents than Republicans. That's a fact.
Any Democrat facing the "equal polarization" charge should keep all four of these points in mind. First, Republicans ran a polarization strategy in the 2004 campaign. Second, Republican activists are further outside of the mainstream than Democratic activists. Third, Republicans are moving even further away from the center than they already are, while Democrats move back toward the center. Fourth, independent and moderate public opinion is currently far close to Democrats on nearly every topic than it is to Republicans. Those are all facts. We should learn them and say them proudly..
I'd ask pundits to learn those four points as well, but anyone still mouthing the "equal polarization," line after seeing this data is either someone for whom research and data are meaningless, or someone who is simply mouthing the Republican Noise Machine talking point on "equal polarization" in an attempt to get Republicans off the hook for polarization by claiming that "everyone does it." The fact is that Republicans thought polarization would be to their benefit. However, like everything else they screw up, now that it isn't working well, they are trying to spread blame around for something for which they are responsible.
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