First of all, if you're thinking about blogging for a big campaign or organization, you should do it. It's going to be unpleasant, you will lose most of the internal battles in the campaign, and you're going to be second-fiddle to the traditional communications and press operation. But it's worth it, because the internet is now so big that it simply cannot be ignored. And you my friend cannot ignore the rest of the political world, and seeing politics from the inside makes this oh-so-clear.
I love blogs, and they are a robust and democratic medium, but they will not be a mainstream medium until 2008 or so. The narrative on blogs is just not 'out there' yet - the narrative in normal political machines is much less focused on the heavily partisanized dishonest politics of a reactionary news cycle, though the rank mistrust certainly is there. But blogs will become mainstream soon. When they do, it will happen with interest groups and advocacy groups coming online and using blogs as a vehicle for community discussion among their members, much as some corporations are experimenting with blogs as knowledge management tools. The blogosphere won't look anything like what it looks like today in three years, because the tool is just too useful to remain a sandbox for us to play in all by ourselves. There will be a huge demand for people who know how to use this medium, so if you want to get into this field, now's the time.
But why will blogs become so important? Well, because other tools are cruder, and will lose influence as their ability to reach people declines. Take TV. This is a crude medium - most of the ad dollars going to NJ were wasted, since Jon Corzine had to advertise in the New York and Philly media markets (1st and 4th most expensive), which meant a lot of non-Jersey eyeballs were seeing Corzine stuff. TIVO's going to make it more difficult to buy viewer attention, since viewers will simply be able to choose to not watch ads. This is also happening to radio, since everyone will soon be listening to podcasts after all those are superhip! (more likely is satelite radio I suspect but the effect is somewhat similar).
The same is true of robocalls and phone banks. In this case it's not TIVO but cell phones that are the culprit. While political campaigns are not subject to the Do Not Call list, they do not call cell phones. This means that a campaign's ability to reach voters through phones, radio and television will be severely restricted. No more annoying robocalls and ads? Long live democracy, am I right?
So how are campaigns going to reach voters? Door walks, for one. You can expect those to be radically expanded. Social activities will be another outlet. Since political campaigns won't be able to just buy your attention, the political party that can be more social and fun will have a sustained advantage. Blogs and social networks will be another way to reach voters, though running blogads won't be enough. Campaigns will go through member groups, like the Sierra Club (or the much smaller Customized Bicycle Maker Club), who will communicate with their members. Surrogates will also be critical, because surrogates will have email lists that they can use for a campaign. I also expect longer format video content to be made available online and on TV, because I think voters are going to want to see and understand candidates before they vote.
All this is nice, but what does it mean, politically speaking? I would say two important things. Money is going to be much much less important in politics, because you won't have to buy TV time to talk to voters, though field will matter. Parties will gain in power, since a party will contain the social infrastructure to spread a candidate's message. However the parties themselves will look different and be much more transparent about how they operate, simply because they will need to be. And two, coalition politics will become essential. No longer will well funded candidates be able to stare down potential opposition, and no longer will politicians see 'being on message' as the be-all and end-all. Instead, there will be many messages for many groups, micro-targeting mixed with argument and discussion. It'll be like the 1880s and 1890s again, the state of courts and parties.
Politics is about to become a lot messier, a lot more open, and in all likelihood, a lot bloodier. We're in interesting times now, my friends.
Related Articles
The Curse of Robocalls
Why Robocalls Are Here to Stay
Doing Robocalls the Right Way
On Surrogates and Campaigns in New Jersey
Some Thoughts on Blogging and Campaigns
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