"The media is kind of weird these days on politics, and there are some major institutional voices that are, truthfully speaking, part and parcel of the Republican Party. Fox News Network, the Washington Times, Rush Limbaugh -- there's a bunch of them, and some of them are financed by wealthy ultra-conservative billionaires who make political deals with Republican administrations and the rest of the media.... Most of the media [has] been slow to recognize the pervasive impact of this Fifth Column in their ranks -- that is, day after day, injecting the daily Republican talking points into the definition of what's objective as stated by the news media as a whole(....)
Something will start at the Republican National Committee, inside the building, and it will explode the next day on the right-wing talk-show network and on Fox News and in the newspapers that play this game, the Washington Times and the others. And then they'll create a little echo chamber, and pretty soon they all start baiting the mainstream media for allegedly ignoring the story they've pushed into the zeitgeist. And then pretty soon the mainstream media goes out and disingenuously takes a so-called objective sampling, and lo and behold, these RNC talking points are woven into the fabric of the zeitgeist(....)"
True to form, the right-wing media greeted this factual description with yet another frenzy of repetitive messaging portraying Gore as crazy. Speaking of Gore on FOX News, The Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes said, "This is nutty. This is along the lines with, you know, President Bush killed Paul Wellstone, and the White House knew before 9/11 that the attacks were going to happen. This is -- I mean, this is conspiratorial stuff." Also on FOX, syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer said of Gore, "I'm a psychiatrist. I don't usually practice on camera. But this is the edge of looniness, this idea that there's a vast conspiracy, it sits in a building, it emanates, it has these tentacles, is really at the edge. He could use a little help." "It could be he's just nuts," Rush Limbaugh said of Gore. "Tipper Gore's issue is what? Mental health. Right? It could be closer to home than we know." "He [Gore] said it's a conspiracy," Tucker Carlson said on CNN's "Crossfire." "I actually think he's coming a little unhinged," The Weekly Standard's David Brooks, now at the New York Times, said of Gore on PBS. (p. 6-7)
Poll Fav Unfav Date Fox 47 44 1/04 CBS 31 46 12/03 Gallup 49 45 6/03That is pretty weak. For the sake of comparison, here are the latest numbers from those same three outlets for Hillary Clinton.
Poll Fav Unfav Date Fox 52 37 6/05 CBS 36 31 5/05 Gallup 53 43 7/05That is a pretty significant gap in favor of Hillary in each of the polls listed: +12 in Fox, +10 in CBS, and +6 in Gallup. In fact, the Gallup poll in May had Hillary at 55/39, giving her a 12-point lead.
Now, although there has been no recent polling on Gore's favorables, it seems pretty clear from the recent Fox trial heat that his favorables have not risen back to Hillary's level (or even John Kerry's level). Compare Gore's performance to that of Kerry and Clinton in recent trial heats wth Giuliani and McCain:
McCain 49 Clinton 38 53 Kerry 36 57 Gore 29 Giuliani 50 Clinton 39 52 Kerry 36 55 Gore 32Now, except for helping Faux push their Republican inevitability line, these trials heats are pretty useless. The only matchup that has any chance of happening is Clinton-Giuliani, and even that is a longshot. Still, they are useful for comparison purposes among Democratic candidates, and for being able to deduce current public opinion on Al Gore despite the lack of recent polling data.
Gore is performing 17 and 12 points worse than Clinton, and 10 and 7 points worse than John Kerry. Now, givent hat Al Gore has just as high name ID has Clinton and Kerry (100%), given these numbers it is pretty safe to deduce that Gore has lower favorables than both Clinton and Kerry. And Kerry's aren't great:
Poll Fav Unfav Date Fox 51 38 12/04 CBS 40 39 11/04 Gallup 42 48 7/05Gore's favroables just can't be very good right now. They are probably even lower than they were two to three years ago. Now, not long ago, in early 2003, Hillary Clinton's favorables were roughly the same as Gore's probably are now, and she clearly has recovered. However, she holds a strong advantage that Gore currently does not: she has consistently remained a national figure. Moving national opinion on a well-known topic or personality is possible, but very difficult. It would appear that Gore has not been able to recover while Hillary has, largely because the media only seems to talk about Gore when they want to slime him, ala the above quote. This means that from day one, any Gore campaign would be facing an uphill battle to restore a positive public image, and thus would start at a tremendous disadvantage even tot he candidates who will not be national figures before the primaries begin. They will simply have to define themselves. Gore would have to re-fine himself, which is much more difficult.
Gore has been thoroughly slimed by the Republican Noise Machine, and as of yet not only has he not recovered, he might even be sinking further. Like many others before him, he was slimed in a completely unfair manner, and mostly for telling the truth. However, that does not change the fact that any Gore run would be extremely difficult right now, and that nay poll where he trails is not exaggerated by the Incumbent Rule or anything else. In fact, because he has 100% name ID, if anything, his deficits in current poll would be exaggerated.
It is really too bad. I wish we had been around at the time to defend him. We might have helped introduce the term "Noise Machine" into the national political discourse, and created a real national discussion on the issue. I also like a lot of what he has said since 2001, and think he would be an outstanding president. However, when looking at a possible Gore candidacy, his near-total denials on the subject are not the only hindering factor. Like Howard Dean before him, simply telling the truth to the media's face may have made him unelectable.
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