Blogs and Campaigns

Campaigns and Elections gave their cover story to the blogs, and especially, covering the Ohio 2nd election one more time. I won't post the entire article by David Weigel, as it's subscription-based, but will post the details of Tim Tagaris and Bob Brigham. Notice how the Republicans say that they will be in the game next time over the netroots. Well, talk is cheap. I'll believe that when I see it. I have a hard time seeing how a decentralized interactive community is incorporated into the top-down Amway-like structure of Republican campaigns. Plus, as Chris has noted many times, the conservative bloggers are just not a part of the Republican campaign machine, but their message machine. The Republicans will have to see it work in an individual Republican campaign before it gets adopted by the party. Plus, despite being lapped, they still won.

Weigel lists 5 Some general lessons can be gleaned from the netroots in the Hackett and Dean campaign that I've also included in the extended entry. Feel free to add your additions and comments to them:

The next issue was money. Schmidt was raising more than Hackett locally and among PACs. Brautigam said that Hackett had been rebuffed when he appealed to the DCCC for early help.

"They said, `Go raise $100,000 and then we'll see,'" Brautigam said. "We raised $100,000, and they didn't move."

Woodruff had been monitoring Web sites that were commenting on the campaign. There was buzz on Daily Kos, MyDD and Swing State Project, and some local blogs had sprung up to discuss the race. A pivotal site was "Grow Ohio," launched in June by U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown of Ohio's 13th District. In 2004 that site's chief blogger, Tim Tagaris, had worked for a Daily Kos-endorsed candidate named Jeff Seemann in Ohio's 16th district, who had lost the race but earned more than $100,000 from online donations. Tagaris, also a blogger at Swing State Project and Daily Kos, had learned how to direct the eyes of media and bloggers to a campaign.

On July 13, the Hackett campaign sent a press release to bloggers and reporters called "Choose Your Seat Wisely," which dramatized what Hackett and Schmidt were doing on Oct. 24, 2004. While Schmidt appeared at a Republican fund-raiser and a football game, Hackett was in a chopper being transported from Ramadi to Fallujah. Tagaris posted a version of the release on Grow Ohio titled "What a Difference a Day Makes." The campaign's visibility was dramatically increased, and donations through Hackett's Web site and ActBlue spiked.

Six days later the campaign experienced another surge. A large number of liberal blogs had dubbed July 19 "Blogosphere Day." A year earlier, bloggers at Daily Kos had "adopted" Ginny Schrader, a nominally funded candidate in Pennsylvania's 8th district, and given her $25,000 in one day. As blogs were commemorating the day by coordinating donations to Hackett, Democracy For America sent out an e-mail to its list asking members to support him. Thanks to this combination, the Hackett campaign raised more than $80,000 in 24 hours - the best-ever day of online donations for a non-presidential campaign.

With the candidate's name and biography now known nationally across the blogs, the campaign was able to attract hundreds of volunteers. Bob Brigham, Tagaris's co-blogger on Swing State Project, got plugged into the campaign and started using the blog as a rapid response tool. Brigham's first test came on July 28, when a USA Today story on the race quoted Hackett saying, "I've said I don't like that son of a bitch that lives in the White House. But I'd put my life on the line for him." The next day, the NRCC announced two ad buys in the 2nd district totaling $525,000. Committee spokesman Carl Forti said it had reacted to Hackett's comments and "decided to bury him."

Even after the DCCC leapt into the race with its own ad buy, the blogs got mileage off Hackett and Forti's comments. The USA Today quote was spun as more straight talk from Hackett, and Forti's comment was spun as a faux pas. Donations spiked again.

On Aug. 1, the campaign told bloggers that it needed $30,000 to fund GOTV. They raised $50,000. On Election Night, Tagaris and Brigham had Internet access at campaign headquarters, where they posted updates and rumors. For around 30 minutes, when it looked like the race might come down to a few hundred votes in late-returning Clermont County, MyDD and Swing State Project asked readers to dig up information on Ohio election law.

In the end, both campaigns had executed their strategies. Woodruff had targeted 49,000 Democratic and independent households with 67,000 voters, and they turned out 55,091 of them. Of the seven counties in the district, all of which backed Bush in 2004, Hackett won four. But Braun's Clermont Plus plan paid off. Schmidt carried her home county by 4,881 votes - with a district-wide victory margin of 3,979 that made the difference.

And here are the lessons that C & E give to campaigns:
Blogs and the Future of Internet Fund-raising

Republicans and Democrats agree on one thing about the Ohio race: It won't happen again.

"Hackett was the beneficiary of being the only game in town, so the blogs had a greater impact than they normally do," said Forti. "And you saw that in the aftermath, the fallout between the DCCC and the blogs about targeting, who to target, and how early to get involved."

"We nationalized this special election, but the key in 2006 will be localization," Brigham said. "Campaigns that work with local bloggers will have real-time capability that will prove invaluable when things break. Candidates need to stop calling me and asking for a million dollars, and start calling their local bloggers and asking for 15 minutes to talk about the race."

Some general lessons can be gleaned.

Know the landscape.

For all the millions of blogs, a campaign only needs to reach some of them to start winning readers over. Along with whatever blogs exist in the campaign's district, Democrats should reach out to MyDD, Daily Kos and Eschaton; Republicans should look at Red State, Powerline and Polipundit. The generally high-earning, politically active readers of these blogs will check the sites in any given week.

Democratic and Republican blog readers have common traits that draw them online. Few trust the mainstream media, instead believing they can get real news in the blogs. Both are critical of their party's moderate wings and leadership, and can be persuaded to dish out if they find a candidate who fights what they believe.

Create a narrative.

The most successful online fund-raisers to date, Dean For America and Hackett For Congress, crafted ongoing story lines based on a few simple themes formed early on. The Hackett campaign's story was of a straight-talking veteran who returned from Iraq and did not like the way his country was going, and an opponent who represented the "culture of corruption" (Brautigam's phrase that was wedged into the Hackett stump speech) in the Republican Party. All of this appealed to donors in the netroots.

Create a community, but do not try to control it.

The Hackett campaign used Ohio bloggers to stoke enough interest in the campaign to take it national. After mid-July, tens of thousands of blog readers were following the Hackett campaign, debating strategy online, asking how to help, and sending donations. In the last week, the netroots could be stoked by any buzz a blogger posted about the campaign.

Make donors feel appreciated.

Every successful use of the netroots has involved some kind of encouragement for donors. The Dean campaign had a visual tool, a cartoon of a baseball player whose bat would fill up with pixels as more people donated to the campaign. Donations sometimes reached a frenzy as Blog For America commentators punched their credit cards and refreshed the image, watching more and more of the bat turn red. The Hackett campaign used a more conventional encouragement; when they reached a goal or had a good round of financing, they told bloggers who breathlessly reported the news to readers.

Go everywhere.

While the Dean and Hackett campaigns didn't need online advertising to build an online network, campaigns with less hype can cheaply purchase ads on leading blogs. For a few thousand dollars, a campaign can post a prominent rectangular ad on a number of blogs for a week, a month, or three months. Ben Chandler, a Kentucky Democrat who won an open Republican U.S. House seat in a 2004 special election, spent $2,000 on blog ads that spurred more than $80,000 in online donations. It will always be easier to draw attention to a presidential campaign or special election, but any campaign can use a clever hook to reach into the growing netroots.

Conclusion:

Whichever party's candidates manage to get the biggest benefit from blogs, the one certainty is that they will be there to be used. Political activists are not going offline. The number of people that can be activated for donations, spin, or volunteer work is only going to increase, and the beneficiaries will be campaigns that can guide them through the doors.



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Move-On vs. Blogs (3.00 / 1)

I think the Move-On can actually raise you more money in 24 hours than the 80k listed that DFA and the blogs brought in for Hackett. The difference is I think that Move-On's impact dies a couple of days after the emails are sent, but the blogs give you residual money, man power and partisan support.
by Kombiz Lavasany on Sun Oct 09, 2005 at 12:54:14 PM EST

Re: Move-On vs. Blogs (none / 0)

IMHO Moveon.org is the only organization in america doing anything worth doing.  There is a line that the cross when they go to a particular candidate or this issue or that. Which I ignore.

But in general when they do things like sponsor a contest for bush in 30 seconds, they're listening to the people more than the DNC

by turnerbroadcasting on Sun Oct 09, 2005 at 02:31:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't under estimate (none / 0)

Republican bloggers. They did not do so badly in South Dakota. Republicans have a long history of taking what we do and doing it better.
by Alice Marshall on Sun Oct 09, 2005 at 02:21:28 PM EST

The Rise of the Netroots and the Dean Campaign (3.00 / 1)

This morning I was thinking about assigning weight to the various factors in the demise of the Dean campaign -- but in doing so, I realized the factors that led to the rise of Howard Dean to front runner are even more important.

The Fall of the Dean Campaign -- Weighted Percentages:

  • Howard Dean -- 50%

  • Joe Trippi -- 40%

  • Externalities -- 10%

The Factors Contributing to the Rise of the Dean Campaign:

  • Howard Dean -- 15%

  • Joe Trippi -- 35%

  • Rick Ridder -- 10%

  • Externalities -- 40%

By contrast, I would ascribe the success of Bill Clinton in 1992:
WJC -- 60%; James Carville -- 15%; Externalities -- 25%.

The Failure of John Kerry in the General Election:
JFK -- 70%; JFK Team -- 20%; Externalities -- 10%.

The percentages are open to debate, but the relative weight is the key point.

In the winter of 2002-2003, Howard Dean was polling in the single digits. His fire-breathing speeches to the California Democrats and the DNC created a buzz that eventually propelled him to the front of the pack. But how do these events figure into the weighted values?

Externalities: in 2002-2003, the Democratic Base understood that BushCo was a cabal of political Gangsters that had more in common with Lenin and Hitler than the better traditions of American Democracy. The Stolen Election of 2000 was nothing short of a Coup D'etat, that was the result of a criminal conspiracy that began no later than 1998, and ultimately depended on the corrupt intervention of the a right wing cabal in the Supreme Court.

The anger of the Democratic Base at the BushCo Gangsters was matched by their anger at the capitulation of the Vichy Beltway Democrats. When we needed a fighting Democratic Opposition, we got collaborators and cowardly enablers. Instead of leadership, we had Senators who supported Bush before opposing him. This anger of the Democratic base was the primary Externality going into the 2004 primary season.

Howard Dean's passion, combined with his "Take Back America" theme, are the factors that fired up the Democratic Base. Rick Ridder was DFA Campaign Manager until after the DNC speech, which is why he is given credit. After the DNC speech, the email volume went from a few dozen to hundreds per day, and Joe Trippi was brought in as campaign manager.

Howard Dean was the right man at the right time, but it was Joe Trippi's internet expertise in peer-to-peer networks that was the vital component in creating the Blog for America and the other revolutionary DFA internet applications. Joe Trippi's use of the MoveOn primary, Meetup, and development of the internet fund-raising techniques were brilliant, and mark the true beginning of the Progressive Netroots as a political force. Jerome Armstrong may be the blog-father of the Progressive bloggy revolution, but Joe Trippi is the architect and creator of the Netroots.

The fall of the DFA campaign is a sad story, but one that needs to be understood and absorbed. The DFA Netroots and internet fund-raising were a rocket, that propelled Howard Dean into low orbit -- but it was the failure of the re-entry systems and strategy that doomed the campaign.

Since politics is War By Other Means, this is a good time to mix the military and space rocket metaphors.

If we use the Space Shuttle as metaphor for the Dean Campaign, the internet operations were like the solid rocket boosters and external fuel tank -- the boosters got it off the ground, and the internet fund-raising fueled the rise to low earth orbit. But the external fuel tank is entirely dependent on the engines within the shuttle itself -- which is the campaign organization.

In getting Howard Dean to front-runner status, all of the internet based systems worked brilliantly -- but once he became the front-runner (low earth orbit), the value of the launch systems was reduced dramatically. (Fund-raising excepted, of course.)

To shift to the military metaphor, the Netroots are like Air Power -- good for long range recon and strike capabilities, but no replacement for boots on the ground. That's where the DFA internet operation gave up it's advantage in the fall of 2003.

At a time when DFA should have been building an indigenous Iowa based field organization, Joe Trippi and DFA were planning The Perfect Storm. Instead of re-calibrating the campaign message to fit the hopes, fears, and desires on the Un-Wired Democratic Base, DFA was looking to impose their internet peer-to-peer dominance on the caucus system. Instead of becoming a more disciplined and scripted candidate, Howard Dean made a series of statements that reinforced the nervousness of the Beltway Dems, and opened the  door to John Kerry's electable theme. Dated Dean, Married Kerry was a brilliant sound-bite, and that type of message will never be replaced by anything the internet brings to the process.  

The Lesson -- the Netroots will be a vital part of the political process, but it will never replace the other key systems of old media and local organization.

by ck on Sun Oct 09, 2005 at 03:45:24 PM EST

Re: The Rise of the Netroots and the Dean Campaign (none / 0)

you say,

The Lesson -- the Netroots will be a vital part of the political process, but it will never replace the other key systems of old media and local organization.

do you have any ideas on how the netroots can enhance/complement these other systems?

by gina on Sun Oct 09, 2005 at 05:47:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Rise of the Netroots and the Dean Campaign (none / 0)

So basically  you just MADE UP these numbers...?

Geez...does Trippi STILL believe that he MADE Dean?

The blogosphere is becoming toxic... if I were a candidate I'd stay away...

Besides telling us how to live, think, marry, pray, vote, invest, educate our children and, die, the GOP has done a fine job of getting gov't out of our lives.
by Parker on Sun Oct 09, 2005 at 06:34:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Rise of the Netroots and the Dean Campaign (none / 0)

Even if Trippi was not there,  I think Dean will still get popular support among activist--successful moderate governor who was against Iraq War and not afraid to say so.
by jasmine on Sun Oct 09, 2005 at 11:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

question (none / 0)

When will the Forward Together PAC site be up?
The Kentucky Democrat
by kydem on Sun Oct 09, 2005 at 04:40:23 PM EST


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