MyDD :: Bush headed for popular collapse?

Bush headed for popular collapse?

by up2date, Fri Oct 07, 2005 at 04:38:44 PM EST

The ride may be ending.

After yesterday's CBS poll showed Bush with a 37% approval rate, I speculated that the low number was only part of the story. The real story was in his support among his base, or more accurately his tenuous support among his base. His near unconditional support among self-identified Republicans was the only thing keeping his numbers from hitting the floor, and the CBS poll (plus common sense analysis of conservative reactions to his spending on Katrina and nomination of Harriet Miers) hinted that support was on the verge of collapse.

Well, today the AP released the results of their own poll, and it is no longer just a theory. Once again, the low number (39%) is the secondary story. Bush is suffering from real discontent among the conservative ranks, and that is the meat here. Bush has been mired in the high 30's and low 40's for months now even while consistently getting 85%+ approval ratings from self-identified Republicans. Consider what will happen to his ratings as this group abandons him. Could it be possible to see his numbers approach 30%?

Only 28 percent say the country is headed in the right direction and two-thirds, 66 percent, say the country is on the wrong track, the AP-Ipsos poll found.

Those most likely to have lost optimism on that score include several groups that supported Bush in his re-election: white evangelicals, down 30 percentage points; Republican women, down 28 points; Southerners, down 26 points, and suburban men, down 20. [...]

Almost two-thirds of Republicans strongly approved of the job done by Bush in December 2004, soon after his re-election. The AP-Ipsos survey found that just half in his own party feel that way now. [...]

Fiscal conservatives are complaining about huge budget deficits and plans to spend billions on hurricane recovery. Social conservatives are alarmed about his choice of a relatively unknown lawyer, Harriet Miers, as a nominee for the Supreme Court. Miers, Bush's longtime personal attorney, has most recently served as White House counsel.

From It Affects You

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HEADED For A Collapse??? (3.00 / 1)

He had 90%+ approval after 9/11. His whole story ever since then has been one long collapse, with only brief interruptions--for the Iraq War, phase 1, the capture of Saddam, and the Swift-boating of John Kerry. Apart from that, it's just been one long collapse.

And it's continuing.

by Paul Rosenberg on Fri Oct 07, 2005 at 05:25:55 PM EST

Your point (none / 0)

is well taken.

My argument is that with nearly unconditional support from his conservative base, there was a floor to how low his numbers could go. Now that this group is abandoning Bush, the floor has been removed, and a free fall is possible.

The collapse has already occurred, but this simply allows it to be more complete.

It Affects You -- Ross

by up2date on Fri Oct 07, 2005 at 05:45:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The clues were all there... (none / 0)

and we know why:

An EWM literary shocker: Attention President Disorder

Distracted POTUS Penning Memoir: "The White House for Dummies"

EWM - (August 18, 2005) White House officials are beginning to whisper about the disinterest and distraction emanating from the Oval Office and point to falling poll numbers and the Bush Administration's failing agenda as the result of the President's apparent apathy.

But EWM has learned that the real problem is that Bush is sick of the job and planning for his post-presidency. And the shocking revelation that you will only read on EWM is that Bush is already shopping a book and major publishing houses are biting.

In "The White House for Dummies" Bush eschews an articulation of his world view and lays out a formula for conducting a presidency with as little thought and effort as possible.

EWM has obtained a treatment for the book and its chapter headings include advice for future Presidents ("Don't Misunderestimate the Job, It's Hard Work"); tips on managing the economy ("Make the Pie Higher"); and lessons in diplomacy ("Wars is Hard Work")...

article

by The Muse on Fri Oct 07, 2005 at 10:54:41 PM EST

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