CA-48th: Today's the Day for the Primary

by BigDog, Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 11:30:52 AM EST

From the diaries, Jerome

After a very short runup, more internal trouble from Democrats than we ever got from Republicans, the Open Ballot Primary for the CA-48th opened the ballot places at 7 am this morning. They will close at 8pm tonight.

Expected turnout? Around 22-25%

Expected Democratic Nominee: Steve Young
Expected Republican Nominee: John Campbell
Expected A.I.P.     Nominee: Jim GilChrist
and other minor players

General Election is Dec 6th.

CA-48 has one election a month for three months.
Today OCT 4= CA-48 Primary
State NOV 8= State Special Election
Then  DEC 6= CA-48 General

It's possible that the Dec 6th turnout could be lower than today's. Amazing but true.

Please keep up the support. With Gilchrist in the race and Campbell with some wacko positions we have a real chance here.




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Will you give us the final? (none / 0)

Polls close 11 eastern?
by Democraticavenger on Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 03:34:34 PM EST

Re: Will you give us the final? (none / 0)

That's correct. And I apologize for not getting back to you. Yes we need more bloggers.
...just a red meat eatin' Democratic Dawg at PolCampaign
by BigDog on Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 06:20:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will you give us the final? (none / 0)

http://www.oc.ca.gov/election/Live/e26/results.htm
by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 11:43:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Doesn't look good (none / 0)

From MSNBC, the leader in accurate reporting :)

"Turnout was low with just over 3 percent of registered voters showing up at polling places randomly selected by elections officials by early afternoon, said Brett Rowley, spokesman for the Orange County Registrar of Voters. About 12 percent of the district's registered voters returned absentee ballots."

And results from that 12% show:
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP)    24902    51.9%
MARILYN C. BREWER (REP)      7242      15.1%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM)              4828    10.1%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI)              3275    6.8%
JOHN GRAHAM (DEM)      2184    4.6%

If 10% of the electorate showed up today, that would be 40201 people.  Young would have to get about 31000 votes to win outright.  Campbell will have to draw less than 19400 of the 40201 votes from today to fall to less than 50% (again, assuming 10% turnout), that he draws less than 48% today might be doable.

How is John McCain different than John Edwards?
by The lurking ecologist on Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 11:58:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Doesn't look good (none / 0)

Numbers above are with absentee ballots only.  I went to the website and it showed 0 of 268 precincts reporting.

by InigoMontoya on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 12:30:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hm i thought they didn't have a primary... (none / 0)

was just 17 people running agenst each other from diffrent partys. On Kos i heard a lot about a strong chance that Repbulicans will get the top two and face each other.
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 04:02:50 PM EST

Re: Hm i thought they didn't have a primary... (none / 0)

Not how it works.  If nobody gets above 50 percent, the top finisher from each of the 5 parties (R, D, AI, presumably L and G) will advance to the December general.  Not like in Louisiana or many mayoral elections, where both top finishers can be of the same party.
by lorax on Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 05:43:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hm i thought they didn't have a primary... (none / 0)

Sorry Lorax didn't see you accurate answer! Thanks.
...just a red meat eatin' Democratic Dawg at PolCampaign
by BigDog on Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 06:29:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hm i thought they didn't have a primary... (none / 0)

Reality is that it is an Open Primary with everyone on the same ballot. Top voter getter from each party advances to the General election Dec 6th. This assumes, a safe assumption it seems, that no one gets 50%+1 tonight.

Started with 17 candidates down to 14 on the ballot now. 5 parties represented. Will be live-blogging around 11:30 PM Eastern and again around 1AM eastern unless news requires more updates from our Primary Party.

...just a red meat eatin' Democratic Dawg at PolCampaign
by BigDog on Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 06:28:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sorry, posted a diary before looking (CA-48) (none / 0)

So are the Young folks calling every baseball widow?  I bet the Brewer people are.  

The Angels are losing; it might be time to get out of the house.

by cuvdog on Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 09:34:53 PM EST

Re: Sorry, posted a diary before looking (CA-48) (none / 0)

7:23 pm:  Just received my gotv call.  Fellow who called did not identify himself nor who he's working for.  Because my wife and I vote absentee, we haven't been crossed off the list at our polling place.  She's a Democrat and I'm "decline."  I wonder if it was the Young people?
by cuvdog on Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 10:31:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

BTW, I was "anonymous" (none / 0)

BTW BigDog, I was "anonymous" who posted my account of being polled.  Did it help at all?
by cuvdog on Tue Oct 04, 2005 at 09:37:30 PM EST

not looking good for Campbell or Young... (none / 0)

with 61/268 precincts reporting...

JOHN CAMPBELL (REP)     28339     49.6%
MARILYN C. BREWER (REP)     8905     15.6%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI)     5536     9.7%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM)     5450     9.5%

Campbell is dipping below 50%. but Gilchrist is outperforming Young. yikes. remind me not to visit the OC anytime soon...

by johnny longtorso on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 12:54:39 AM EST

Re: Final Tally (none / 0)

JOHN CAMPBELL (REP)        36640        46.0%
MARILYN C. BREWER (REP)     13272     16.7%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI)     11490     14.4%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM)     7110     8.9%
JOHN GRAHAM (DEM)     3242     4.1%
BEA FOSTER (DEM)     2606     3.3%
DON UDALL (REP)     1284     1.6%
JOHN KELLY (REP)     955     1.2%
BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN)     698     0.9%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB)     667     0.8%
DAVID R. CROUCH (REP)     455     0.6%
SCOTT MACCABE (REP)     353     0.4%
MARSHA A. MORRIS (REP)     322     0.4%
TOM PALLOW (DEM)     270     0.3%
GUY E. MAILLY (REP)     138     0.2%
MARSHALL SAMUEL SANDERS (REP)     94     0.1%
EDWARD A. SUPPE (REP)     87     0.1%

There was a lot of hoo-hah after Hackett's near-upset in the OH-2 that the Dems could do something here.  NFW.  Young is no Hackett and the CA-48 is about as an ugly a district as you can come up with for Democrats...I think Idaho or Utah would go Democratic first.

by InigoMontoya on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 02:16:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final Tally Trends (none / 0)

So election day voters actually polled less for Young and Campbell and more for Gilchrist and Brewer.  Compare the numbers posted by Inigo vs those I posted above, which report absentee results (as noted).  Only 8% of the registered voters turned out on election day (12% early/absentee and 20% total).  Pathetic.

If Young got all the votes from every other also ran, he'd only get about 38%.  So he or Gilchrist will have to convince some first round Campbell voters to switch.  Seems unlikely.

How is John McCain different than John Edwards?
by The lurking ecologist on Wed Oct 05, 2005 at 11:20:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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