Thoughts on the Rasmussen Poll

Unless I am mistaken, in their daily tracking of Bush's job approval, Rasmussen records a higher number of Republicans in their polls than other outfits. Generally speaking, along with their practice of pushing out all undecideds, this largely accounts for the discrepancy between their results and those of other polls. I am not entirely opposed to Rasmussen's methods, since I think it has been fairly well established that much of the rapid movement regularly produced in political-related polls by many polling outfits such as Gallup is the result of the rapidly changing partisan makeup of the people they question. I, for one, still believe that national partisan self-identification is something that changes slowly, rather than on a monthly or weekly basis. Thus, along with Rasmussen, I would tend to come down in favor of a more fixed, rather than a more flexible, method of including partisan self-identification in political polls.

However, despite Rasmussen's methodology, today they peg Bush's job approval at a paltry 41 / 59. The main reason for Bush's slide? He has hit an all-time low among Republicans:

Forty-one percent (41%) of American adults approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his role as President. This is the lowest level recorded ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports.

Among Republicans, the President's Approval Rating has fallen to 73%, matching the lowest level ever recorded.

For most of his time in office, the President's Approval Rating among Republicans has been in the high-80s.

Overall, 59% of Americans Disapprove, including 44% who strongly disapprove. That is the highest percentage to Strongly Disapprove of his job performance.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of Americans now say that bringing the troops home from Iraq is more important than finishing the mission in that country. This is the first time that a majority of Americans have held that view.

73% approval among Republicans is shockingly low for Bush. I believe it is the lowest level ever recorded by any polling organization at any time during the Bush administration. If other polling outfits begin to record such a low approval rating among Republicans, we will soon be seeing Bush's approval ratings in the mid or even low thirties. And that is before any of the indictments are actually handed down.

As a side note, I never noticed Rasmussen's hideous withdrawal question before:

Which is more important, getting American troops home as soon as possible or making sure that Iraq becomes a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and democracy?
Wow. I mean--wow. Considering that Rasmussen asks that question to a few hundred thousands people every year, that borders on being a push poll. Not only does it offer the Bush administration suggested false choice I have often complained about, but it actually includes the Bush administration's latest talking point / rationale for the invasion of Iraq. Truly, that question makes Rasmussen deserving of the Distorty lifetime achievement award.

Of course, even despite that horrendous question, the withdrawal option still leads 53-38.



Display:


Withdrawal (none / 0)

You know, looking at that withdrawal question gives me a thought. The American selfishness gene usually expresses itself sooner or later. It's possible the question is reducible to "Give the Iraqis a bright, shiny new pony or get our boys home." If you view it that way, then the answer (for a lot of people) becomes "Screw the Iraqis."

In a way, by making the question so baldly pro-deployment, it might bring up nativist sentiments - ie, why should we be busting our butts to give this shiny new pony to these furriners?

by DavidNYC on Wed Oct 26, 2005 at 12:04:21 PM EST

My "Balanced" Version of the Question (none / 0)

Which is more important, getting American troops home alive and well as soon as possible or making sure that Halliburton drains every last dime it can out of the debacle in Iraq, while turning every last Iraqi into a would-be terrorist?
Or, to be more professional about it, and more concise in our wording, we could use a split sample:
Sample A: Which is more important, getting American troops home alive and well as soon as possible or making sure that Halliburton drains every last dime it can out of the debacle in Iraq?
and
Sample B: Which is more important, getting American troops home alive and well as soon as possible or turning every last Iraqi into a would-be terrorist?


by Paul Rosenberg on Wed Oct 26, 2005 at 12:12:24 PM EST

Last Poll Question (none / 0)

There's no border about it at all, that question has full-on invaded Pushpolltonia.
by norbizness on Wed Oct 26, 2005 at 12:44:59 PM EST

That question may be a little too over-the-top.... (none / 0)

At this point, if you've been paying any attention at all to the news coming out of Iraq, the idea that continuing on our current course will ensure that "Iraq becomes a peaceful nation enjoying freedom and democracy" is likely to evoke derisive laughter.  I suspect even some Republicans respond that way.
Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for President! Beat McCain!
by Alex on Thu Oct 27, 2005 at 12:55:40 AM EST


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