Once Forrester won the nomination, the polls showed Corzine ahead by anywhere from 10% to 20%. We all figured Jersey would be easy. Better to focus more attention on the other gubernatorial race in Virginia. But New Jersey voters are notoriously fickle. In August of 2004, John Kerry led George W. Bush in the state by at least 16%. By October, the two candidates were tied at 46%. Less than a week later, Kerry won the state by 7%.
Here we are again, on the eve of another election that had seemed destined to be a landslide, with the race seemingly all tied up. I'm not saying these polls should be discounted. Quite to the contrary, these polls should serve as a Democratic call to action. But New Jersey Democrats have been here before. The way I see it, there are a few key points to hit on to seal the deal for undecided voters.
These Republicans also claim that they're better suited to running the state responsibly and successfully. The history however, suggests otherwise. Commenter The Wizard gave a quick history lesson on Republican governance at Blue Jersey:
The Republicans are always carping about tax and spend Democrats.... I'll take tax and spend over borrow and embezzle anytime.
And perhaps most importantly, the cornerstone of Forrester's campaign is a joke. Tom Moran of the Star-Ledger, in a column famously cited in the Wall Street Journal editorial pages, analyzed Forrester's '30 in 3' property tax proposal. He found it somewhat lacking.
It would cost a lot less, for one. Corzine wants to increase property tax rebates by 10 percent a year, for four years straight. That would cost $2.25 billion a year in the final year, about 50 percent more than we spend on rebates today.
Forrester has grander ambitions. He would reduce the property taxes homeowners pay by 30 percent, excluding any taxes on second homes.
He says that would cost under $3 billion a year, but he's playing politics with the numbers. He ignores the effect of inflation, for example, even though property taxes have been rising by 7 percent a year.
In the end, Forrester's plan could cost twice as much as Corzine's.
Recently, Moran revisited Forrester's property tax plan. Apparently, it hadn't improved.
But don't count on that cash just yet.
Forrest hasn't said how he'd pay for this program. And he doesn't direct the relief to where it's needed most.
Renters would get no new benefits, for example. And wealthy owners of expensive homes would benefit the most. He would remove the income cap that excludes families earning over $200,000 from existing rebate programs.
Some of you may remember that this isn't the first time Forrester's proven himself a one-trick pony. In 2002, Forrester ran against the ethically challenged Robert Torricelli for the Senate. When Torricelli withdrew from the race and former Senator Frank Lautenberg stepped up to take his place, Forrester's campaign collapsed. The single reason he expected voters to support him was that he was not Bob Torricelli. When that was taken away from him, he was sunk.
Now, Forrester expects people to support him for two reasons -- he's not corrupt and he's got a plan for dealing with high property taxes. But just like in 2002, it's a sham.
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Tomorrow night, Corzine and Forrester will be debating live on the radio. If you're in New Jersey and are looking for something to do, the campaign is hosting a great event at the Stress Factory in New Brunswick. Al Franken will be doing a running commentary on the debate and a few bloggers -- myself included -- will be attempting to live blog between the laughter. Apparently, tickets are still available. It should be really fun, so think about coming out.
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