Democrats 2008 Schedule

Bob Brigham has a blog post stating that Richardson is set to announce an early bipartisan Western Primary tomorrow-- but is any state besides Utah joining New Mexico? Regardless, the DNC is unlikely to let them inside the "window" of the early states. The buzz says that Iowa will remain the first caucus, New Hampshire will remain the first primary, but in-between 2-4 other caucus states will be squeezed in the window.

GWU's Race for 2008 page says that Dec. 10th, the Commission Recommendations and Report will be given to the DNC for the 2008 caucuses and primaries. The Next Prez took the Oct 1st Discussion & Debate of Proposals literally when they said the 2-4 states that would be moved up would be among those with populations of five million or less, and with minority populations of at least 15%:

A quick check at the US Census Bureau website revealed that states meeting those criteria would include Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and South Carolina, as well as the District of Columbia.
The Bill Richardson Blog makes the argument that Colorado is the Western pick, but Nevada does have a caucus history. Of the southern states, none of those are traditional caucus states, but does South Carolina have the edge since it's been near the front for a while now?



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ABBI and ABBNH (none / 0)

Good, because anybody but Iowa and anybody but New Hampshire.  It'd be nice that in the year 2008, that we'd have some early states that have a LITTLE diversity.
McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Mon Oct 10, 2005 at 09:42:44 PM EST

what about KY? (none / 0)

We have some diversity here...
The Kentucky Democrat
by kydem on Mon Oct 10, 2005 at 09:59:30 PM EST

Re: what about KY? (none / 0)

The majority must be hiding someplace... everytime I go there it is pretty white... of course so is Illinois except in CHicago.
by yitbos96bb on Mon Oct 10, 2005 at 10:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: what about KY? (none / 0)

Kentucky is actually a lot whiter than average America.

For the South, a state with a huge black population, like Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia, or South Carolina would seem good. And for the West, a state with many Latinos - Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, dare I suggest my home state of California? Okay, fine. Then Nevada.

by raginillinoian on Mon Oct 10, 2005 at 11:51:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: what about KY? (none / 0)

California??  Heavens no!  We wouldn't want a state that accurately represents the Democratic Party choosing who the Democratic Party's nominee should be!
Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.
by Fran for Dean on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 12:57:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Picking CA is like having all the primaries on the (none / 0)

same day.

Pretty much gives a Hillary-type a lock on the nomination.

by Cyt on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 05:26:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Picking CA is like having all the primaries (none / 0)

A national primary in 2004 would have given the nomination to Howard Dean... not exactly a Hillary-type.
Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.
by Fran for Dean on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 11:07:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Picking CA is like having all the primaries (none / 0)

Dean's first media attention was stuff like "Anti-War Insurgent Makes Gains in Pacifist Iowa."  That was his springboard to national attention.
by lorax on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 09:56:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I say we get rid of New Hampshire and Iowa (none / 0)

entirely and refuse to hold primaries and caucuses there.  Instead we have out first primary in Florida and then our next primary in Colorado.  
by strrbr on Mon Oct 10, 2005 at 10:15:56 PM EST

DNC (none / 0)

Can the DNC actually control when a state holds its primary?  I thought the states controlled it.  I am sure it is unwise to fight that battle, but if a state decided to say Screw the DNC and schedule it there anyway... can the DNC (or RNC for that matter) legally do anything about it.

Truthfully though, given Iowa and New Hampshire's purple status, I don't know if I would cut them out as many people suggest... if a party does, they might turn a purple state to another color.  It sounds silly, but a lot of people in those state parties I have met are really proud about the first caucus/primary thing.

by yitbos96bb on Mon Oct 10, 2005 at 10:22:31 PM EST

Re: DNC (none / 0)

I agree, if we say screw you to Iowa and New Hampshire, I would be willing to bet they vote against us in November no matter what. This is a huge economic issue to them. All the money that pours in every four years, they arent going to give that up for nothing.
by duncin32 on Mon Oct 10, 2005 at 10:37:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: DNC (none / 0)

I forgot about the economic issues involved.  Yeah that is an even better reason.
by yitbos96bb on Mon Oct 10, 2005 at 10:39:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm in NH (none / 0)

It would be a horrible idea to try to scrap the first-in-the-nation primary status for New Hampshire. There would be a huge statewide backlash against the DNC if that happened.

The states most widely-read newspaper, the extreme right-wing New Hampshire Union Leader, is already publishing editorials attacking the Democrats for even contemplating this.

by Scoonie on Mon Oct 10, 2005 at 10:41:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm in NH (none / 0)

Too bad we can't use the jedi mind trick on the RNC AND convince them to do it.
by yitbos96bb on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 04:54:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Southern States (none / 0)

Of course most of the SOuthern states on that list are going to be a challenge to win.  Too bad Tennessee, Missouri, or Virginia isn't on there.  

If I had to pick 3, I would go with COlorado, Nevada, and Arkansas and put them into the Iowa and New Hampshire mix.  Should give a good cross section of the population.

by yitbos96bb on Mon Oct 10, 2005 at 10:28:38 PM EST

Re: Southern States (none / 0)

Those are three excellent choices.
by Scoonie on Mon Oct 10, 2005 at 10:32:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Southern States (none / 0)

I agree.  All three are excelent choices and I hope Arkansas and one of the Western states makes the cut (possibly NM too).

I'm a Nevadan and during the last Primary in 2004 there was record turnout.  So many people turned up that they had to move the voting to the high school's football field rather than indoors.  It could really help to turn Nevada from a swing state into a blue state if Democratic campaigners took us more seriously.  We're only getting bigger!

by roller on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 03:11:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Caucuses are horrible! (3.00 / 1)

Caucuses are incredibly flawed, if for no reason than that they discriminate against the elderly, the disabled, and the working poor (who often work unconventional hours and cannot get time off to attend a caucus).  I SAW ALL THREE OF THESE EFFECTS WHILE I WAS IN IOWA IN 03/04.  Any system that doesn't allow for advance mail-in ballots is a reverse of important electoral reforms we have fought hard to gain.

I am all for a little more diversity in the early goings of the dem primary.  I was quite disturbed at how Kerry seemed to be able to lock up the whole thing after winning only Iowa and New Hampshire.  However, I think that having caucuses is the entirely wrong approach.

Also, can we please scrap the idea that we have to have early primaries in small states?  It is a silly idea to believe that underfunded candidates have any chance.  The game has changed substantially since Carter, and like it or not, money matters a great deal these days.  We should not let this outdated mode of thinking limit us to having primaries one state at a time in the early going.

We need to have Iowa, Colorado (or New Mexico), South Carolina, and New Hampshire all on the same day to start the primary season.  This provides for adequate geographical and racial diversity.

by rapid response on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 01:03:15 AM EST

Re: Caucuses are horrible! (none / 0)

I read something in 2004 saying some states were considering going to a caucus system because it was much cheaper.  
by yitbos96bb on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 04:56:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Caucuses are horrible! (none / 0)

I think the caucus process is pretty interesting because of the horse-trading and the other things that go on behind the scenes.
In 1992, Vermont had a Saturday caucus and it was pretty cool to watch on C-Span.
While they might discriminate "the poor," who work strange hours, there is no discrimination against the elderly or disabled. If they can go to the polling booth, they can go to a coffee klatch to decide who should be a party's nominee.
http://politizine.blogspot.com: A political fanzine containing random musings about politics, music and modern times.
by politizine on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 11:27:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Caucuses are horrible! (none / 0)

Large percentages of the elderly and disabled vote exclusively by mail ballot because they aren't able to come to a voting booth.  I remember doing my damndest to get wheelchair-bound, and blind folks to come out to the caucus.  We offered everything the campaign had to offer.  They simply couldn't do it.  They voted loyally by mail ballot when they had the chance, but they can't do that in a caucus.

As I said before, I saw these effects firsthand in Iowa.

by rapid response on Wed Oct 12, 2005 at 12:25:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Caucuses are horrible! (none / 0)

That might have been the case in Iowa - in the middle of January. Again, on C-Span, there were all kinds of people at the caucus. Then again, it was March.
http://politizine.blogspot.com: A political fanzine containing random musings about politics, music and modern times.
by politizine on Wed Oct 12, 2005 at 11:32:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Living in the Midwest (none / 0)

I would have to say I am in favor of a mountain west strategy.  I think this would force Democratic hopefuls to hone a message that would resonate with many people who do not consider themselves Democrats but are actully ideologically liberal.  I believe changes in message can be made without giving up any ideological ground.

I think John Tester in Montana is a good example of a candidate whose message resonates with midwestern folk.  I wish we had a couple of him in Kansas.

Want Blue States? ActBlue!
I work for ActBlue.
by KansasNate on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 02:00:05 AM EST

The case against Nevada (none / 0)

For decades, no one could get an endorsement from the Manchester Union-Leader without taking the No Tax Pledge.  Candidates who needed a New Hampshire win were backed into a corner on this.  It became a disproportionately important part of winning that state's primary, especially among Republicans.  The result is that no other position is remotely acceptable.  Tax cuts are important Republican electoral strategy, but they would not be the be-all-end-all if it weren't for this.

Ethanol in Iowa is the same way.  90% of the country would not consider ethanol in the slightest when deciding which candidate to select, but in the earliest state of all, it is the most important thing.  States with strong issues well out of proportion with other parts of the country should not dominate the primary season.

I mean no disrespect to Nevadans, but there are two issues in Nevada that are disproportionately important to voters there: gambling and Yucca Mountain.  If you're not backed by the gaming industry, or if you support Yucca Mountain nuclear disposal, you are shot in Nevada.

I'm not pushing any particular policy preferences, but these two issues so dominate Nevada politics that making Nevada an early primary/caucus would create a litmust test out of two issues that are not particularly important to voters elsewhere in the country.  I have no ill will toward Nevada, but I do fear skewing the winner this way.  Momentum is everything in the primaries, and a win in Nevada could propel someone who shouldn't be the nominee based solely on these two issues.

I'd back Colorado like nearly everyone else, a potentially close Southern state (NC, VA, AR, LA, TN), and a close blue state (MI, PA, WA, OR, MN, WI, NJ).  This creates three footholds.  First, Colorado begins the Western strategy.  Second, a close Southern state helps find a candidate with the potential to appeal to Southerners and (in theory) puts those five states in play.  Third, the close blue state should help shore up the vote and millions of dollars for use elsewhere.

by jhupp on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 10:03:02 AM EST

Re: The case against Nevada (none / 0)

In 2004, the UL endorsed Joe Lieberman. While the most conservative candidate in the field in 2004, Joe never signed the No New Taxes Pledge.
http://politizine.blogspot.com: A political fanzine containing random musings about politics, music and modern times.
by politizine on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 11:24:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The case against Nevada (none / 0)

True.  Two things: a) My post was in the past tense.  I'm pretty sure it's not true anymore.  and b) I don't know how much sway it ever had on the Democratic primary.  It's a much bigger deal for Republicans.
by jhupp on Wed Oct 12, 2005 at 07:39:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Keep New Hampshire, Ditch Iowa (3.00 / 1)

New Hampshire has value as an early primary state, since it is one of the few swing states.  If you want to win, you need to find out who will be the most popular in the states that are up for grabs.

I would add in New Mexico and perhaps Montana as early primary states, for geographic diversity, and keep South Carolina early on.  

by Lex on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 11:22:10 AM EST

Re: Keep New Hampshire, Ditch Iowa (3.00 / 1)

When did Iowa stop being a swing state?  If that's the reason New Hampshire has value, Iowa has even more; New Hampshire is a swing state surrounded by states that are set in stone.  By contrast, Iowa borders Missouri and Minnesota (and therefore has a few demographics and economic interests in common), two states with some play to them.
by jhupp on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 11:32:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Keep New Hampshire, Ditch Iowa (3.00 / 1)

I agree... Iowa is as much a swing state as NH.  It went red last time but was blue in 2004.  NH was the opposite.  Both are pretty purple.
by yitbos96bb on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 04:57:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Update? (none / 0)

So the press conference started half and hour ago, anyone have an update?
by anthony on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 02:08:45 PM EST

Breaking the Broken Wheel (3.00 / 1)

The point about losing two swing states is real - if the DNC messes with Iowa and/or NH, kiss those states goodbye.  What is with the DNC pushing more states into the two weeks before the window opens anyway? Isn't that exactly the problem that this commission was supposed to try to do something about? Instead, they are making it worse.  This is a disaster in the making - we'll have a candidate nominated before Feb. 1, and only four states will have voted.  The Republicans must be jumping up and down with glee over this insanity.    
by nascardem on Tue Oct 11, 2005 at 06:10:19 PM EST

I think this is great ... (none / 0)

Personally, I think a regional primary with three or four western states after New Hampshire is a great idea. However, they should do it two weeks after New Hampshire - not a day or two.
The whole part of this process is to really get to know the people who are running for president. Why rush it, just to get your local TV stations more ad money? Come on. What does the public get but bombarded by TV Ads. Give it some more time so that candidates have to actually go out and meet regular folks like they do in New Hampshire and Iowa.
http://politizine.blogspot.com: A political fanzine containing random musings about politics, music and modern times.
by politizine on Wed Oct 12, 2005 at 12:04:40 AM EST


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