IA-01 becomes likley pickup in '06 - Nussle to run for Governor

Jim Nussle (IA-01) has filed his paperwork to raise money for his likely run for Governor in '06. This will likely to mean he'll vacate his seat in what should be friendly Democratic turf. The seat has potential to be a pickup, as Gore won the district 52-45, and Kerry won 53-46.

Just a little background on Jim Nussle: he's chair of the House budget committee which helped Bush crash the budget in last 4 years and now he's intent on bringing his fiscal policies back to Iowa. He's also one of the members of congress who recently helped tuck a provision into the omnibus bill that would allow him to transfer $333 thousand dollars from his Congressional Campaign Committee to his Gubernatorial Campaign. Most recently he voted to essentially gut the House ethics panel to protect Delay, himself and other Republicans with ethics investigations in the future. He'll continue to chair the Budget committee and most likely raise money for his campaign account because of his chairmanship since Iowa has no contribution limits. Can anyone say reform?

The Republican Gubernatorial primary should be crowded and promises to be dirty, though Nussle should be considered the favorite in the primary because of his stature int the Republican party and a threat in the general since he hails from Democratic Eastern Iowa.



Display:


This is peculiar (none / 0)

Generally Iowa has a tradition of granting incumbent Governors a lot of respect and multiple terms.  Recent Governors were Robert D. Ray 1969-83, Terry Edward Branstad 1983-94 and Tom Vilsack 2000-?.

Unless Vilsack has some sort of underlying problem I would be surprised if there is an upset in the making. I'm admittedly out of touch with Iowa politics since I moved to California ten years ago, but barring some sort of budgetary crisis or political scandal I would be very surprised if Vilsack were in any real danger of losing.

On the other hand, Nussle is no fool and he must have good reasons for making this move. I'd be very interested in hearing from folks with their ear closer to the ground.  

by Gary Boatwright on Sun Jan 09, 2005 at 02:55:51 AM EST

Re: This is peculiar (none / 0)

Vilsack term-limited himself and by all accounts is not running in 06.  Everyone here in Iowa is assuming he means it.  Most likely Dem nominee is Sec. of State Chet Culver, a couple others are in the race too.
by jdeeth on Sun Jan 09, 2005 at 03:05:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

He also is probably... (none / 0)

...running for president in 08.
by Geotpf on Sun Jan 09, 2005 at 06:03:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Who's Going to Run? (none / 0)

Is Gluba going to give it another shot?  He did fairly well against Nussle in 04, so I'm assuming that in an open seat he might have a chance at winning it.  He's got to lead in name recognition of most of the Democrats that want the seat, so he might have an edge in the primary.  
by LoganFerree on Sun Jan 09, 2005 at 01:34:49 PM EST

this seat could be tough (none / 0)

In theory, Dems should be favored to pick up this House seat.

In practice, the Dubuque area (solidly Catholic) is not as solidly Democratic as it once was, and people in the 1st District are now accustomed to voting Republican for Congress. We will need to work very hard to pick up this seat.

I don't see anyone in the GOP who could beat Nussle in the primary. He'll have tons of money and comes from a populous part of the state. Doug Gross, who was the GOP moneybags' choice in 2002, ran a lousy campaign against Vilsack--I don't see why Republicans would support him in the primary against Nussle.

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Sun Jan 09, 2005 at 02:21:49 PM EST

bitter Republican primaries (none / 0)

There will be at least a 3-way battle for Governor in the Republican primary - and Republicans outside of the Cedar Rapids and Quad Cities media markets don't know Jim Nussle.  It is possible that this primary could do what almost happened in 2002: the winner may not get 35% and it may go to a state convention.

The Republicans believe the 1st District seat belongs to them and that will encourage many to take their shot at Congress.  Look for State Rep. Bill Dix, State Rep. Jamie Van Fossen, 2002 AG candidate Dave Millage, State Senator Bob Brunkhorst, and maybe even fmr. State Senator Don Redfern to think about running for this seat.

On the Democratic side, look for State Senator Bill Dotzler, State Senator Joe Seng, and State Rep. Cindy Winckler to consider running.  If Cindy Winckler does run, EMILY's List could get involved and potentially clear the primary field.

It seems to me there are more Republicans likely to run than Democrats which increases the odds that the Republicans have the more divisive primary.

by Nate Willems on Sun Jan 09, 2005 at 04:42:36 PM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.