It's still a crowded race, with no clear frontrunner and each of the candidates putting together their own base of support; so as the field begins to shakeout, it leaves room for each candidate to grow their base of support.
Harold Ickes dropping out has been written on the wall since Orlando's ASDC meeting. He does so, saying he doesn't "think there's any frontrunner" in the race, and that he's not got enough time for the demands. Doesn't sound like he's backing anyone yet, and that he's going to keep his focus on furthering the 527 efforts-- that's good to hear. Ickes was a frontrunner a couple of months ago, and with the second shoe finally dropping, it sets off a bit of a frenzy, especially inside DC and the Executive Committee, where Ickes had some support.
For Howard Dean, here's what Hotline says:
It's hard to call Howard Dean the frontrunner when it's still not clear he'll run, though he may be reinvigorated by the Ickes news. So if Dean decides '08 is more intriguing than the bureaucracy of 400 S. Cap, the eventual victor could end up being the candidate who offends the fewest people/interest groups.
That's basically in line with my take-- if Dean wants the job, damn
the ABD's out there, it's his for the taking. Under the radar, Dean's campaign has the most persisent targeting of the party activists (where the votes are) with emails and phone calls. It's a campaign, and Dean's running. As for the other candidates, it will come down to Dean and some other anti-Dean alternative:
The conventional wisdom in the contest is that if Dean does decide to enter the race, the final choice for DNC members will be between the firebrand former governor and presidential candidate, and an anti-Dean candidate. Frost acknowledged that this scenario was the most likely but said the field was too amorphous to make hard and fast predictions.
That's Martin Frost, who's moving up fast as the 2nd (or 3rd or 4th, who's counting) choice now among the DC congressional leaders. Frost recognizes that to get to face Dean head-on, he's got to go through Tim Roemer. So, besides setting up a campaign team made of of DC pro's, and getting kind words from Pelosi's spokesperson ("Frost would make a solid chairman"), he's busy aiming to knock Roemer out of the race, saying, "While our candidates must always be able to run on a broad and tolerant platform, it is critical that our Party Chair believe deeply in our party's basic values. Our party cannot be adequately led by someone whose primary qualification to serve as Chair is his opposition to core Democratic beliefs" (from a Frost email).
That would be Tim Roemer's position against women's choice on pregnancy, and for privatization of social security, which seems to raise big red flags for everyone by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. But Roemer, along with Frost and the other main contenders, is planning to attend the first regional meeting, in Atlanta this Saturday (DNC regional meetings are also planned for St. Louis on Jan. 15, Sacramento on Jan. 22 and Jan. 29 in New York City). The longer Roemer "remains on the fence about a bid" though, the less likely his candidacy becomes, and it looks dicey at this point.
Simon Rosenberg, second to Dean, is the big winner with Ickes dropping out. It clears the way for him to go after support within Clinton's group, and other DC-based groups that support reform, which might have backed Ickes. On Thursday, Rosenberg is to formally announce his candidacy at a luncheon with the National Press Club. We're hopeful that BlogPac will kickoff it's interviews with the DNC candidates starting this week with Rosenberg, and then holding conference calls with the other DNC Chair candidates, stay tuned.
Donnie Fowler has top Democratic fundraiser Mitchell Berger on board, because Fowler “knows how to organize… and to win elections” and because “it is time to move” to a younger generation of Democrats. “It’s not like the party needs help in its fund-raising. It’s doing excellently in its fundraising. It needs help in its organizational aspects,” Berger said. Sure does. Fowler's father, Don Fowler, is introducing a couple of reform-minded measures to amend the DNC's charter. I've been able to get ahold of the amendments, and will post on them further in upcoming entries.
Wellington Webb has stayed in-house with his hiring of Denver strategist Paul Lhevine, who ran Hickenlooper's campaign for Denver mayor and Diana Degette's race for Congress (there's also a video interview with Webb at that link). Labor is said to have angst about Webb being the Chair, and at somepoint, it's worth wondering if Webb would back Dean (whom he backed for President) as DNC Chair, because if he would, it'd about clinch the deal for Dean.
Jim Blanchard is another candidate that is slightly bumped up by Ickes dropping out of the race. He's said to have the endorsement of the DGA as well, but how much they have in the way of pull among those voting is questionable, especially with every other Dem Org out there pulling in a different direction.
Is Ron Kirk the next one to drop out of the race? Kirk seemed hot in Orlando, but he remains timid, and word is circulating that "he's out." Does that mean that Mary Beth Malcom is in? Does it really matter?
