Speculation 2008
by Chris Bowers, Mon Jan 31, 2005 at 01:20:19 PM EST
Obviously, there is much greater buzz surrounding several more pressing topics on MyDD, but
with all the press coverage of 2008 over the past two days, a post on this subject was obligatory. In the extended entry, I discuss the ten Democrats who seem most likely to run (and no, Al Gore and Howard Dean are not among them).
- Sen. Evan Bayh (also a former Governor) Looks like he is running. By stepping out of the Fainthearted Faction and voting against Rice, he has made some moves that would appeal to the base. He also has small but existing netroots support. Now, according to Time, "lining up a finance team and arguing that he can win in some red states." As a loud and proud New Democrat, he might appeal to the more "moderate" wings of the party's intelligentsia.
- Sen. Joe Biden. Biden has been in the Senate forever, although he was elected at the youngest possible age (he turned thirty between his election in 1972 and taking office). Thus, he would still only be 66 on January 20, 2009. He regularly threatens to run, including a brief stint in 1987 before he was taken down by a plagiarism scandal. He has just about the safest seat in the entire Senate, and has been in the Senate for the majority of his life, so my money is that he is just threatening again.
- Sen. Barbara Boxer. Boxer is a prodigious fundraiser ($26M in 1997-1998!) who has made a lot of people online very, very happy of late. At the very least, there will be a draft Boxer movement. Money, California, and netroots could combine into a strong candidacy.
- General Wesley Clark. Much to my surprise, Clark seems to be testing the waters. According to Time, he "is telling potential supporters, according to one he called, that he "learned from his mistakes, he knows it takes more time and preparation than he put in--and that his wife is fully on board," which wasn't true the first go-round." I remember watching him the day he withdrew from the primaries (February 11th), and he just did not seem like he had enjoyed running for President much, saying something like "he was obligated to run" because of the Draft Clark movement. Even though I was a Dean supporter, the netroots shout out made me feel good. However--and please forgive me Clarkies--I was always convinced that his popularity stemmed from circumstances specific to the 2004 election, specifically terrorism and "electability." Thus, my gut tells me he won't run again, or even if he does that he will not have the same level of support, but he does at least seem interested.
- Sen. Hillary Clinton (former First Lady). Obviously, as she leads every poll on the subject, including those with Kerry (she did the same in 2004, including those with Gore), and her name in Clinton, she would become the instant frontrunner with wide support among many different wings of the party. Now, kos and I have both recently tried to quell the bizarre netroots hatred of her, but those who insist on carrying water for the Republican Noise Machine are having none of it. If she runs, I sincerely hope more people will come to their senses by 2007. She would be extremely difficult for anyone to beat.
- Sen. John Edwards. As Joe Lockhart noted in USA Today yesterday, "the No. 2 person always runs." An extremely articulate speaker and very much liked among the netroots, Edwards also boasts the best favorable / unfavorable ratio of any nationally prominent Democrat. His position actually reminds me of Kerry's before 2003 when there was still Gore and Clinton speculation: if a couple of big guns do not run (Kerry, Clinton) he will become the early frontrunner.
- Sen. Russ Feingold . Clearly, Feingold is thinking about it.
U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wis., told the Tiger Bay Club of Volusia County on Friday that he'll decide whether to run after "going around the country" working to return a Democrat to the White House.
In Bush's first term, Feingold opposed the president's policies on the Iraq war, USA Patriot Act, Medicare reform, education policy, environmental regulation and abortion rights. He made clear he was leaving his own presidential options open after a club member asked if he plans to run.
For now, Feingold said, he wants to be "part of the process" of identifying a candidate likely to succeed George W. Bush in 2008. That involves helping to create "national organizations of people to make that happen," he said.
A decision to run hinges on "whether I feel I'll be the best candidate to win," he said, adding, "I'm not going to even worry about that right now."
Feingold would be a big hit among the netroots and among labor. With his name best known nationally from the "McCain-Feingold" campaign finance reform act, he has insurgent potentially written all over him. I admit that I am leaning his way, even though he was one of three Democrats to vote against the authorization of the air campaign in Kosovo (I believe that we must step in to stop genocide). Still, unless something changes, the second I hear his consideration take it up another notch, I'll probably send his office my resume.
- Sen. John Kerry. Time writes: "The good news for John Kerry is that he didn't pull an Al Gore. Instead of moping around after the election, putting on weight and growing a beard, the 2004 Democratic nominee is back attacking Bush's health-care plan, skewering his nominee for Secretary of State during confirmation hearings, and booking a comeback interview on Meet the Press. The bad news for Kerry, if he wants to try again in '08, is that there's a boatful of other Democrats already testing the waters with the party's top fund raisers." Personally, I do not think Kerry is serious about running again. Instead, I feel by keeping the possibility open he has found a way to keep a prominent national image. Besides, with Clinton, he would not even be the frontrunner, as she trounces him in all polls on the subject. If you have 100% name-recognition and you are not the frontrunner, not even really that close, then you will not win the nomination.
- Gov. Bill Richardson. As the head of the National Governor's association being just one line on his mile-long resume, no conversation about possible Democratic candidates could take place without him. According to Time, he is "definitely thinking about it [running]." Very visible and super-electable (at least by 2003-2004 definitions of the term), the main question might be whether or not he can be exciting. Very much worth watching.
- Gov. Mark Warner. As a young Governor of the only Southern state trending in our direction, his timetable works perfectly to either run for Senate or Governor. Much hinges on the 2005 election as well. Perhaps even more than Richardson and Feingold, Warner creates complicated electoral math for the Republicans. Personally, I hope he runs for Senate, because I feel that is more pressing than 2008. I suppose we will all know soon enough.
Here is a very tentative cattle call of these ten, purely in terms of their odds to win the nomination (and knowing whether or not they will run plays a factor in those odds):
1. Clinton
2. Edwards
3. Feingold
4. Richardson
5. Warner
6. Bayh
7. Boxer
8. Clark
9. Kerry
10. Biden
Comment, make your own rankings, whatever. But just to stop you before you start: Gore and Dean will not be running.
Tags: Democrats (all tags)